A busy one this Saturday as the ITV cameras head to Doncaster for the ultra-competitive November Handicap and also take in five Aintree contests – as always, here at Surewin we’ve got all the trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races.
Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/SkyRacing)
2:10 – Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4
20/22 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
20/22 – Had won over 6f before
19/22 – Had at least 6 previous runs that season
19/22 – Won from stall 12 or lower
18/22 – Rated 99 or higher
17/22 – Aged 4 or older
14/22 – Had won at least 5 times before in their career
12/22 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
12/22 – Had won at Doncaster before
6/22 – Ran at York (4) or Newmarket (2) last time out
6/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Winning favourites (4 of last 13)
3/22 – Winning mare/filly
3/22 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Trainer Karl Burke has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
Trainer Andrew Balding has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
8 of the last 10 winners from stall 7 or lower
9/10 winners aged 6 or younger
The last 10 winners returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
2:45 – Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Irish EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4
19/21 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
17/21 – Had 3 or more runs that season
15/21 – Had won at least twice before
14/21 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
14/21 – Unplaced last time out
12/21 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
12/21 – Had won over 1m2f before
11/21 – Returned 8/1 or bigger in the betting
11/21 – Unplaced favourites
11/21 – Ran at either Lingfield (3), Goodwood (4) or Newmarket (4) last time out
8/21 – Won by an Irish-bred filly
4/21 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of last 6)
3/21 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/21 – Won last time out
2/21 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 13)
2/21 – Ridden by David Probert
8 of the last 9 winners aged 3 or 4
James Doyle has ridden the last 2 winners
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 10/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
3:25 – Virgin Bet November Handicap Cl2 1m4f ITV4
19/22 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
18/22 – Winners that came from draw 8 or higher
17/22 – Favourites that were unplaced
17/22 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
16/22 – Won carrying 9-0 or less in weight
15/22 – Had raced at least 5 times that season
14/22 – Placed last time out
14/22 – Won by a horse aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/22 – Had raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
13/22 – Had won over 1m4f before
11/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/22 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/22 – Won last time out
3/22 -Trained by John Gosden (won it 6 times in all)
3/22 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 10/1
Just 3 winning favourites since 1996
3 of the last 9 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
Just one winner aged 7+ since 1960
22/26 aged 5 or younger
Castle Cove (4/1 jfav) won the race in 2025
Lord Melbourne (14/1) won the race in 2024
Note: The 2023 November Handicap was run on the AW at Newcastle
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1:15 – William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase Cl3 (4yo+ 0-130) 2m ITV
10/11 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
10/11 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
8/11 – Aged between 6-8
7/11 – Aged 7 or 8
4/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Ridden by Jonathan Burke (2 of the last 6)
2/11 – Trained by Tom George
2/11 – Trained by Henry Oliver
2/11 – Trained by Ben Pauling
The winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
1:45 – William Hill Molyneux Hurdle (Registered as the Elite Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4
20/22 – Aged 7 or younger
20/22 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
19/22 – Came from the top three in the betting
17/22 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
15/22 – Won between 2-5 times before (hurdles)
14/22 – Rated 150 or lower
10/22 – Unplaced last time out
10/22 – Won last time out
9/22 – Having first run of the season
7/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (last 4)
5/22 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/22 – Trained by Alan King (3 of the last 10)
2/22 – Trained by John Quinn
Nicky Henderson trained the winner in 2018 and 2019
Harry Cobden has ridden the last four winners
Rubaud won the race in 2023, 2024 & 2025
Note: Normally run at Wincanton (run at Aintree in 2026)
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
2:20 – Boodles Rising Stars Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4
18/19 – Had won no more than twice over fences
18/19 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
16/19 – Irish (10) or French (6) bred
15/19 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/19 – Had won over 2m3f or further (Chase)
13/19 – Favourites placed
12/19 – Aged 6 or younger
10/19 – Winning favourites
9/19 – Won last time out
8/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
13 of the last 16 winners were aged between 5-7
Note: Normally run at Wincanton (run at Aintree in 2026)
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
2:55 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV4
14/14 – Didn’t win last time out
12/14 – Irish (8) or French (4) bred winners
12/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Had won at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
10/14 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
10/14 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Had run at Aintree before (1 winner)
9/14 – Unplaced last time out
4/14 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
4/14 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/14 – Winning favourites
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
3:35 – Play Lucky Stable With William Hill Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yold+ 0-145) 2m4f ITV4
No past runnings
Trainer Philip Hobbs and Johnson White have a 33% SR over fences here
Trainer Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies have a 27% SR over fences here
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
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