Here at Surewin, we take you through the eight LIVE ITV races this Saturday at Ascot, Redcar and Newmarket from a trends angle.
At Redcar, we’ve got the Two-Year-Old Trophy as their feature contest, while at Newmarket the Group One BetMGM Sun Chariot Stakes takes centre stage.
Can Fallen Angel bounce back to form and follow-up her win in the race from last year?
Then at Ascot, we’ve four more races that include the Cumberland Lodge and John Guest Bengough Stakes, plus the ultra-competitive Challenge Cup Handicap.
Did you know? 19 of the last 23 Cumberland Lodge favourites have been placed?
Use these trends and stats to whittle down the final runners and find the best profiles of recent winners.
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/Sky Sports Racing)
1:15 – BetMGM British EBF October Stakes (Listed Race) (C1) (3yo+) 7f
11/11 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Won between 1-3 times
9/11 – Didn’t win last time out
8/11 – Between stalls 3-7
8/11 – Won over 7f before
6/11 – Irish bred
4/11 – Had won at Ascot before
3/11 – Trained by William Haggas (3 of the last 9)
3/11 – Stall 7
2/11 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 8)
2/11 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 10)
2/11 – Winning favourites
5/9 winners drawn (3) or (7)
SUREWIN BEST BET: SO REGAL
SUREWIN DANGER: DASH OF AZURE
1:50 – BetMGM Rous Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV
21/21 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
21/21 – Won over 5f before
20/21 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
17/21– Rated 101 or higher
16/21 – Aged 5 or younger
15/21 – Had won between 3-7 times before
13/21 – Winning distance – ½ length or shorter
11/21 – Raced at Newbury last time out
10/21 – Unplaced last time out
9/21 – Yet to win at Listed or better class
8/21 – Irish bred
4/21 – Winning favourites
3/21 – Trained by Bryan Smart
3/21 – Trained by Michael Dods (3 of last 8 runnings)
3/21 – Won last time out
11 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 8 or lower
Shagraan won the race in 2025
Rumstar won the race in 2024
17 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 11 or lower
10 of the last 11 winners aged 4+
SUREWIN BEST BET: FIRST INSTINCT
SUREWIN DANGER: LIFEPLAN
2:25 – BetMGM Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV
22/23 – Finished fourth or better last time out
20/23 – Had won over 1m4f before
19/23 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
19/23 – Placed favourites
18/23 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
18/23 – Won at Listed or Group class before
18/23 – Had raced at the course before (9 won)
17/23 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
16/23 – Had won 4 or more times before
14/23 – Had 5 or more runs that season
13/23 – Winning distance 1 ¾ lengths or more
12/23 – Favourites to win
12/23 – Won last time out
6/23 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
3/23 – Trained by Karl Burke (and Clifford Lee) have won the last 3
2/23 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 11)
2/23 – Trained by Owen Burrows (2 of last 8)
1/23 – Filly or mare winners
Al Qareem won the race in 2023, 2024 & 2025
9 of the last 11 winners drawn between 2-7
15 of the last 17 winners came from draws 8 or lower
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has won 2 of the last 13 runnings
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket
SUREWIN BEST BET: PLAGE DE HAVRE
SUREWIN DANGER: TENABILITY
3:00 – John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV
17/18 – Won over 6f previously
17/18 – Officially rated 100 or higher
15/18 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
14/18 – Won 4 or more times previously
11/18 – Raced 6 or more times that season
10/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
6/18 – Won their previous race
6/18 – Favourites to win
3/18 – Returned a double-figure price
2/18 – Raced at the Curragh last time out
2/18 – Trained by the Charlton yard
4 of the last 8 winners came from stalls 6 & 8
9 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 5-8 (inc)
9 of the last 11 drawn between 3-8
6 of the last 11 from gates 5, 6 or 8 (2 each)
The last 10 winners aged between 3-6
Horse from stall 7 has been placed in 8 of the last 14 runnings (3 wins)
Horses from stall 5, 6 and 7 have won 9 of the last 14 runnings
SUREWIN BEST BET: DIVISION
SUREWIN DANGER: PRINCE OF INDIA
3:35 – BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV
21/24– Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
20/24 – Won over 7f previously
18/24 – Won between 2 and 4 previous races
18/24 – Raced at Ascot previously
16/24 – Had raced within the last 30 days
15/24 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/24 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
11/24 – Raced 7 or more times that season
10/24 – Returned a double-figure price
8/24 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
7/24 – Raced at Ayr last time out
7/24 – Favourites that won
2/24 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/24 – Trained by Mick Channon
3/24 – Won their previous race
0/24 – Filly or mare winners
12 of the last 15 winners carried 9-1 or more in weight
14 of the last 15 winners were aged 6 or younger
9 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
5 of the last 17 horses from stall 10 were placed in the top 4
5 of the last 17 horses from stall 11 were placed in the top 3
2 of the last 7 winners came from stall 17
2 of the last 5 winners from stall 2
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket
SUREWIN BEST BET: THUNDER CALL
SUREWIN DANGER: POET MASTER
Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1:00 – £200,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 7f ITV
Just 11 previous runnings
10/11 – Foaled Feb or later
10/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Carried between 8-4 and 8-11 in weight
9/11– Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
7/11 – Won from a double-figure draw
6/11 – Won just one before
5/11 – Rated between 79-85
4/11 – First 3 home came from double-figure draws
2/11 – Winning favourites
6 of the last 10 winners foaled in March or April
4 of the last 9 winners went to a filly
SUREWIN BEST BET: NIGHT IN VEGAS
SUREWIN DANGER: ZIGAZIG AH
1:35 – BetMGM Sun Chariot Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV
20/22 – Had won over at least 1m before
19/22 – Previous Group winners
16/22 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
15/22 – Rated between 113 and 119
15/22 – Previous Group One winners
14/22 – Won between 3-5 times before
11/22 – Aged 3 years-old
9/22 – Won last time out
8/22 – Winning favourites (1 co)
7/22 – Raced at Deauville last time out
6/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/22 – French-trained winners
3/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 10)
2/22 – Won by a previous winner of the race
18 of the last 19 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
Horses from stall 1 have won 5 of the last 20 runnings
Horses from stalls 1 (4) or 7 (2) or 9 (2) have won 8 of the last 16
Trainer John Gosden has won 2 of the last 6 runnings (3 in total)
3 of the last 5 winners from stall 3
Fallen Angel won the race in 2025
SUREWIN BEST BET: BLUE BOLT
SUREWIN DANGER: CITY OF MEMPHIS
2:10 – Newmarket Handicap Cl2 (3yold+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV
No past runnings
Trainer James Owen is just 4-87 here at Newmarket
Trainer Kevin Philippart De Foy is just 4-58 here at Newmarket
Trainer William Muir and Chris Grassick are just 1-21 here at Newmarket
SUREWIN BEST BET: ERNST BLOFELD
SUREWIN DANGER: PRIMO LARA
Redcar Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
3:20 – William Hill Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV
21/24 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
19/24 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
18/24 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
16/24 – Had won 1 or 2 previous races
14/24 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/24 – Had won over 6f before
12/24 – Foaled in March or later
12/24 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
10/24 – Unplaced favourites
8/24 – Winning favourites
8/24 – Won last time out
6/24 – Filly winners
6/24 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/24 – Trained by Tim Easterby (4 wins in total)
2/24 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3 of the last 10 winners came from stall 8
7 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 3-8 (inc)
SUREWIN BEST BET: REVELS
SUREWIN DANGER: MYESME
3:55 – Racing TV EBF Stallions Guisborough Stakes (Listed) Cl1 (3yo+) 7f ITV
10/10 – Won over 7f or 1m
9/10 – Never raced at Redcar
9/10 – Aged between 3-5
8/10 – Returned 11/2 or shorter
8/10 – Drawn in stalls 5, 6 or 7
8/10 – Top 3 finish last time
5/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites
4/8 winners stall 6
7/10 winners from stall 5 or 6
SUREWIN BEST BET: WITNESS STAND
SUREWIN DANGER: VALVANO
