More LIVE ITV Racing on Saturday 10th October as we head into day two of the Newmarket Dubai Future Champions meeting, plus there is also LIVE racing from York.
There’s a lot to take in with the ultra-competitive Cesarewitch Handicap one of the key betting races of the flat turf season, while the race is supported by the Autumn Stakes & Dewhurst Stakes.
Did you know? 20 of the last 24 Cesarewitch Handicap winners carried 8st 11lbs or less – including last year’s winner Beylerbeyi, winning with just 8st-11lbs in weight.
As mentioned, ITV cameras are also at York to take in three races, with the feature being the Coral Sprint Trophy.
So as always – here at SUREWIN – we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle, plus our quick-fire verdicts on each contest.
Horse Racing Trends: Saturday 10th October 2026
Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
1:15 – Too Darn Hot Darley Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m1f ITV
12/13 – Won over a least 1m before
12/13 – Won between 2-4 times before
11/13 – Winners from stalls 6 or higher
11/13 – Listed or Group winner
10/13 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/13 – Had run at the course before (4 won)
7/13 – Irish bred
6/13 – Won last time out
5/13 – Favourites unplaced
4/13 – Winners priced 20/1 or bigger
3/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of the last 5)
2/13 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of the last 11)
2 of the last 9 winners Juddmonte owned
9 of the last 10 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
1:50 – Night Of Thunder Zetland Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f ITV
19/19 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
17/19 – Won no more than twice before
17/19 – Foaled in Feb, Mar or April
17/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
16/19 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
16/19 – Had won over at least 1m before
14/19 – Placed favourites
13/19 – Won last time out
12/19 – Drawn in stalls 2-5 (inc)
9/19 – Winning favourites
6/19 – Came from stalls 2 or 3
4/19 – Ran at Leicester last time out
2/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/19 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of last 3)
2/19 – Trained by the Hannon yard (none in the last 11)
1/19 – Winners from stall 1
Godolphin has won 3 of the last 5 runnings
7 of the last 9 winners from stalls 5, 6 or 7
Ralph Beckett has won 2 of the last 7
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 3 of the last 5 runnings
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won 3 of the last 9 runnings
Irish-trained winners have won 4 of the last 11
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
2.25 – Emirates Autumn Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV
20/21 – Had won over at least 7f before
19/21 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
19/21 – Had raced at least twice before
18/21 – Won between 1-2 times before
17/21 – Placed favourites
16/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
16/21 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/21 – Won last time out
12/21 – Foaled in Feb or March
13/21 – Irish bred
9/21 – Godolphin winners (8 of the last 10)
9/21 – Winning favourites
6/21 – Ridden by William Buick (6 of the last 11)
5/21 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (5 of the last 9)
3/21 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/21 – Irish-trained winners
9 of the last 19 winners came between stalls 3-5
2 of the last 9 winners came from stall 9
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has only won this race ONCE (2024, Delacroix)
Charlie Appleby and William Buick have won 4 of the last 6
Hankelow (5/2 fav) won this race in 2025
Delacroix (15/8 fav) won the race in 2024
Ancient Wisdom (2/1 jfav) won the race in 2023
Note: From 2009 back the race was staged at ASCOT, while the 2005 running was at Salisbury
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
3:00 – Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV
24/24 – Raced at least 3 times that season
20/24 – Placed in their last race
20/24 – Yet to race at Newmarket (Rowley)
19/24 – Favourites placed
18/24 – Won over 7f previously
18/24 – Won a Group race previously
17/24 – Won their last race
16/24 – Foaled in either Feb or March
15/24 – Won at least 3 times previously
13/24 – Raced at either Goodwood (2), Longchamp (2) or the Curragh (9) last time out
13/24 – Favourites that won
12/24 – Won by an Irish-based stable
9/24 – Placed horses that came from stall 2
8/24 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
7/24 – Finished in the top 2 in the 2000 Guineas the following season (4 won both)
7/24 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (8 wins in total)
7/24 – Returned 20/1 or bigger
5/24 – Trained by Jim Bolger
4/24 – Godolphin-owned winners (4 of the last 14)
3/24 – Won the Epsom Derby the following season
3/24 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (3 of the last 7)
2/24 – Winners that came from stall 1
William Buick has ridden 3 of the last 7 winners
The Irish have won 12 of the last 120 runnings
6 of the last 8 winners drawn in stalls 5 (4) or 2 (2)
4 of the last 8 winners drawn in stall 5
Andrew Balding has won 2 of the last 4
The last 10 winners trained by Balding, Appleby, O’Brien and Gosden
Aidan O’Brien has trained 6 of the last 13 winners
Ryan Moore has won the race 5 times
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
3:40 – Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f ITV
23/24 – Aged 4 or older
20/24 – Carried 9-2 or less
19/24 – Had run within the last 2 months
18/24 – Aged 5 or older
17/24 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
17/24 – Finished 4th or better last time out
16/24 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
15/24 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
14/24 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
14/24 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
13/24 – Won by a NH trainer
13/24 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/24 – Had run at the track before
11/24 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
9/24 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price
9/24 – Placed favourites
8/24 – Ran at Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
5/24 – Winning mares
4/24 – Winning favourites
4/24 – Won last time out
3/24 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
3/24 – Winners from stall 1
3/24 – Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 8 winners)
3/24 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/24 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/24 – Trained by Brian Meehan
2/24 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
The Irish have trained 7 of the last 9 winners
The average winning SP in the last 24 years is 20/1
Just 4 winning favourites since 1993
No back-to-back winner since 1900
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
York Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
1:30 – Sky Bet Rockingham Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV
23/23– Had raced within the last 4 weeks
22/23 – Had won between 1 and 3 times before
18/23 – Had 4 or more runs that season
18/23 – Foaled in March or later
17/23 – Had never raced at York before
17/23 – Had won over 6f before
16/23 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
14/23 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
14/23 – Placed favourites
12/23 – Unplaced last time out
8/23 – Ran at either Redcar (6) or Newbury (2) last time out
8/23 – Winning favourites
6/23 – Won last time out
5/23 – Filly winners
5/23 – Winners from stall 2
4/23 – Placed horses from stall 1
3/23 – Trained by Tim Easterby
3/23 – Ridden by David Allan
7 of the last 9 winners between stalls 5-9
Trainer William Haggas has won 3 of the last 5 runnings
Jockey Tom Marquand has won 3 of the last 5 runnings
The horse from stall 6 has won 5 of the last 16 runnings
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
2:05 – Sky Bet For The Fans Handicap Cl2 1m2f88y ITV
12/13 – Returned 12/1 or shorter
12/13 – Won over at least 1m2f before
10/13 – Didn’t win last time out
9/13 – Rated between 95-103
9/13 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
9/13 – Carried 9-0 or more
8/13 – Unplaced last time out
6/13 – Had run at the track before
5/13 – Irish bred
2/13 – Winning favourites
3 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 3 (2 of the last 4)
3 of the last 11 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
6 of the last 10 from stalls 3 (2), 4 (2) or 8 (2)
Grey Cuban won this race in 2025
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
3:17 – Sky Bet Sprint Trophy Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV
22/22 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
22/22 – Had won at least 3 races before
22/22 – Had won a race over 6f before
20/22 – Had run at York before
20/22 – Had raced 6 or more times that season
17/22 – Aged 5 or younger
16/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/22 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
12/22 – Unplaced favourites
11/22 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
5/22 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/22 – Trained by David O’Meara (3 of the last 10)
3/22 – Winning favourites (or joint)
2/22 – Trained by Kevin Ryan (2 of the last 9 winners)
2/22 – Trained by Michael Dods
1/22 – Filly or mare winners
11 of the last 12 winners carried 9st or more
11 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
4 of the last 8 winners drawn in stalls 5 or 7 (2 each)
4 of the last 17 winners were ridden by a claiming apprentice
Strike Red won the race in 2022 and 2024
Binhareer won this in 2025
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
