The ITV horse racing cameras are at Newbury as the new flat turf season ramps up another notch with their Dubai Duty Free Meeting – we’ve four races for flat fans from the Berkshire track on ITV, including the Greenham Stakes and, like always, we’ve got these LIVE Newbury races covered from a trends and stats angle – fingers crossed they will point you in the direction of a few winners.
While it’s also Scottish Grand National Day up at Ayr – a race trainer Willie Mullins has won for the last two seasons.
The ITV horse racing cameras are at the Scottish track to take in five races live and four at Newbury. Meaning there are NINE live ITV races on Saturday.
See below all the key SUREWIN trends and tips.
NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)
1:25 – Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV
20/22 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
19/22 – Finished in the top three last time out
19/22 – Having their first run of the season
18/22 – Had won between 1-2 times before
17/22 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
16/22 – Came from the top three in the betting
16/22 – Drawn 5 or higher
12/22 – Had won over 7f before
10/22 – Won last time out
10/22 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
8/22 – Had won at Newbury before
8/22 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
6/22 – Winning favourites
5/22 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 10)
4/22 – Trained by the Channon yard
2/22 – Trained by the Hannon stable
Hollie Doyle has ridden the last 2 winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford
SUREWIN BEST BET: TOULEEN
SUREWIN DANGER: ZOOMING
2:00 – Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV
20/22 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
20/22 – Had won at either 6f or 7f before
20/22 – Having their first run of the season
17/22 – Won at Listed class or better before
16/22 – Won between 2-4 times before
16/22 – Placed favourites
15/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/22 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
13/22 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/22 – Had won a Group race before
11/22 – Had won over 7f before
10/22 – Won last time out
9/22 – Winning favourites
9/22 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
8/22 – Had won a race at Newbury before
6/22 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/22 – Irish-trained
2/22 – Winners from stall 1
James Doyle has ridden 2 of the last 11 winners
3 of the last 11 from stall 8
8 of the last 12 winners returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford
SUREWIN BEST BET: ZAVATERI
SUREWIN DANGER: NEEDLE MATCH
2:35 – Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV
21/22 – Aged 6 or younger
20/22 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
20/22 – Had won between 2-5 times before
20/22 – Had won over 1m4f (or further) before
19/22 – Having their first run of the season
18/22 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
17/22 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/22– Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/22 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
15/22 – Had raced at Newbury before
12/22 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/22 – Had won a Group race before
7/22 – Raced at Newbury last time out
6/22 – Winning favourites
5/22 – Won last time out
3/22 – Trainer by William Haggas (3 of the last 13)
2/22 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 11)
2/22 – Trained by John Gosden
2/22 – Won by the Johnston yard
Jockey Jim Crowley (3) and Ryan Moore (2) have won 5 of the last 11
10 of the last 13 winners drawn in stalls 4 or lower (inc last 7)
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 6/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford
SUREWIN BEST BET: AL AASY
SUREWIN DANGER: LION’S PRIDE
3:10 – OLBG Spring Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV
22/22 – Won no more than 4 times before (flat)
21/22 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
21/22 – Aged 6 or younger
19/22 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
19/22 – Won between 2-4 times before (flat)
18/22 – Won over at least 1m before
17/22 – Rated between 85-98
16/22 – Unplaced last time out
14/22 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
12/22 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
12/22 – Carried 8-12 or less
12/22 – Had run at Newbury before
11/22 – Unplaced favourites
10/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/22 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
3/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of the last 11)
3/22 – Winning favourites (2 joint) (1 in the last 10)
2/22 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 12)
2/22 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer (2 of last 11)
2/22 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of last 6)
1/22 – Won last time out
7 of the last 11 carried 9-1 or less
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1
Ebt’s Guard (25/1) won the race in 2025
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford
SUREWIN BEST BET: SHOUT
SUREWIN DANGER: LINWOOD
AYR HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)
1.10 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m 1/2f RTV
21/21 – Had won over at least 2m (chase) before
19/21 – Aged 9 or younger
19/21 – Had won between 2-4 times (chase) before
18/21 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/21 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
15/21 – Rated between 127-139
14/21 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
13/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/21 – Finished in the top four last time out
12/21 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
12/21 – Had run at Ayr before
11/21 – French bred
11/21 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
4/21 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/21– Winning favourites
4/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 8 years)
7 of the last 8 winners carried 11-1 or more
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
Jockey Danny McMenamin has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
The Other Mozzie (6/1) won this in 2025
SUREWIN BEST BET: TRAPRAIN LAW
SUREWIN DANGER: SANS BRUIT
1:45 – CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m ITV
14/14 – No more than 3 chase wins
13/14 – Aged 9 or younger
13/14 – French (5) or Irish (8) bred
12/14 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/14 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/14 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
10/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/14 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
9/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
4/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Had run at the track before
3/14 – Winning favourites
3 of the last 11 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
6 of the last 11 winners aged 7
8 of the last 10 winners carried 11st 8lbs or more
7 of the last 9 winners aged 7 or 8
Trainer Dan Skelton has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
Trainer Alan King has won 2 of the last 8
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2
SUREWIN BEST BET: DIAMOND DEALER
SUREWIN DANGER: BIG JOHN WAYNE
2:20 – Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl2 2m ITV
22/22 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
19/22 – Aged 7 or younger
18/22 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
18/22 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
17/22 – Had won between 2-4 times over hurdles before
17/22 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
16/22 – Carried 10-13 or less
16/22 – Rated 135 or higher
13/22 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
13/22 – Finished unplaced last time out
11/22 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
11/22 – Irish bred
6/22 – Ran at Aintree last time out
6/22 – Won last time out
6/22 – Winning favourites (joint)
3/22 – Trained by the Philip Hobbs yard
1/22 – Irish-trained winners
4 of the last 12 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
Paul Nicholls has won the race 3 times
Cracking Rhapsody (10/1) won the race last season
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: OOH BETTY
SUREWIN DANGER: CAPTAIN HUGO
2:55 – UK Greentech Seafield Trophy Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+) 3m 1/2f
12/12 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles)
11/12 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
11/12 – Won between 2-3 times over hurdles
9/12 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/12 – Irish bred
8/12 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
8/12 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
6/12 – Aged 6 years-old
6/12 – Placed favourites
6/12 – Had run at Ayr before (2 winners)
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Winning favourites
6 of the last 11 winners aged 6 years-old
10 of the last 11 winners aged between 6-8
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: WORLD OF FORTUNES
SUREWIN DANGER: LOVE OF NEYMORE
3:35 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 4m110y ITV
22/22 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
19/22 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
18/22 – Came from a different stable that’s won the race
18/22 – Carried 11-1 or less
18/22 – Aged 8 or older
18/22 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
17/22 – French or Irish bred
15/22 – Finished in the first three last time out
15/22 – Had won over 3m or further
15/22 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
14/22 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
14/22 – Carried 10-9 or less
14/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
14/22 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
8/22– Won last time out
7/22 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/22 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/22 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
3/22 – Winning favourites (or joint)
2/22 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/22 – Trained by Christian Williams (2 of the last 4 winners)
2/22 – Trained by Willie Mullins (Last 2 winners)
2/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 9 winners)
2/22 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
The last outright winning favourite was in 1999 (Young Kenny, 1999)
2 of the last 13 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 3 times
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12.5/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: GIT MAKER
SUREWIN DANGER: MONTREGARD
