As we head into day three of the Newmarket July Festival this Saturday there is bundles more to look forward to with SIX more LIVE ITV races too.
The Group One July Cup (4:35) spearheads the afternoon’s action at HQ and, as always, we’ve got all the ITV races covered with key trends to help you find the winners.
Plus there is ITV Racing at Ascot and York – with a monster 12 races being covered on the ‘free-to-air’ channel this Saturday.
Newmarket July Meeting – Day Three, Saturday 11th July 2025
1:40 – Rossdales British EBF Maiden Stakes Cl3 (2yo) 7f
9/10 – Returned 17/2 or shorter
8/10 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (4), Andrew Balding (2) or John Gosden (2)
8/10 – Drawn between 3-9
7/10 – Foaled in Feb or March
4/10 – Winning favourites
This race has been won by Distant Storm, Field Of Gold and Noble Truth since 2021
Constitution River 2nd in 2025
SUREWIN BEST BET: AL WATHBA
SUREWIN DANGER: DOWN TO YOU KID
2:15 – Newmarket Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f
17/17 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Didn’t win last time out
16/17 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
14/17 – Had won over at least 7f before
12/17 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
11/17 – Rated between 82-93 (inc)
10/17 – Placed favourites
6/17 – Drawn in stalls 10, 11 or 13 (2 each)
5/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/17 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/17 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/17 – Winning favourites
Royal Velvet (4/1) won the race in 2025
SUREWIN BEST BET: TRUE TEST
SUREWIN DANGER: SONG N DANCE
2:52 – Newmarket Handicap (3yo) Cl2 1m ITV
22/24 – Had won over 7f or further previously
19/24 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
18/24 – Had 2 or more runs that season
14/24 – Unplaced in their last race
10/24 – Winners from stall 8 or higher
10/24 – Favourites unplaced
5/24 – Won their last race
5/24 – Winning Favourites
4/24 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (4 of the last 8)
Charlie Appleby and William Buick have won 2 of the last 3
The Richard Hannon yard have won 3 of the last 13 runnings
SUREWIN BEST BET: EKLLEEM
SUREWIN DANGER: MOONFALL
3:25 – bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV
23/24 – Won over 7f previously
22/24 – Raced 3 or more times that season
17/24 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
15/24 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/24 – Winners from stall 13 or higher
13/24 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
11/24 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
12/24 – Placed in their last race
10/24 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
9/24 – Horses from a double-figure stall that finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd
5/24 – Favourites (inc joint and co)
3/24 – Won by the Hannon yard (2 or last 6)
3/24 – Trained by Richard Fahey (3 of the last 15)
3/24 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 17)
11 of the last 15 winners came from double-figure draws
16 of the last 18 winners carried 9st or more
10 of the last 18 winners carried between 9st and 9st 3lbs
Aalto (15/2) won the race in 2024 & 2nd in 2025
SUREWIN BEST BET: TWO TRIBES
SUREWIN DANGER: AALTO
4:00 – bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV
23/24 – Won over at least 6f previously
22/24 – Placed in their last race
21/24 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
19/24 – Won their latest race
16/24 – Won by either a March or April foal
14/24 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
14/24 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
10/24 – Favourites unplaced
8/24 – Winning Favourites
5/24 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard (4 of the last 16)
5/24 – Ridden by William Buick (5 of the last 8)
4/24 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/24 – Winners from stall 3
3/24 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/24 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of the last 9)
2/24 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 13 runnings)
2/24 – Trained by Mick Channon
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 7 of the last 11 runnings
Last 4 winners all drawn stall 2
William Buick / Charlie Appleby have won 5 of the last 8
SUREWIN BEST BET: AL HUBAIDA
SUREWIN DANGER: ABRAHAM LINCOLN
4:35 – Al Basti July Cup Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV
Recent July Cup Winners…..
2025 No Half Measures (66/1)
2024 Mill Stream (11/1)
2023 Shaquille (5/2 jfav)
2022 Alcohol Free (14/1)
2021 Starman (9/2)
2020 Oxted (12/1)
2019 Ten Sovereigns (9/2)
2018 U S Navy Flag (8/1)
2017 Harry Angel (9/2)
2016 Limato (9/2 fav)
2015 Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014 Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013 Lethal Force (9/2)
2012 Mayson (20/1)
2011 Dream Ahead (7/1)
July Cup Betting Trends
23/24 – Aged 5 or younger
22/24 – Had won over 6f before
19/24 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
19/24 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
19/24 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
18/24 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
18/24 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
15/24 – Placed last time out
11/24 – Ran last time out in either the King Charles III Stakes or QEII Jubilee Stakes
11/24 – Unplaced favourites
9/24 – Won their previous race
6/24 – Winning favourites
4/24 – Irish-trained winners (O’Brien trained 2 of the last 8 winners)
4/24 – Filly winners
2/24 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2 of the last 8)
2/24 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
1/24 – French-trained winners
16 of the last 17 winners aged 3 or 4
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times before (1999, 2001, 2010, 2018 & 2019) – joint winning most trainer with Vincent O’Brien and Charles Morton
Trainer Charlie Appleby has never won the race
SUREWIN BEST BET: MISSION CENTRAL
SUREWIN DANGER: BIG MOJO
Ascot Horse Racing Trends
1:55 – Club 26 Heritage Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 5f ITV4
10/11 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
9/11 – Had won over 5f before
9/11 – Carried 8-10 or more
8/11 – Had won between 2-6 times
8/11 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
7/11 – Didn’t win last time out
7/11 – Returned between 7/1 and 14/1
7/11 – Came from a double-figure stall
5/11 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/11 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3 winning favourites in the last 10
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: FANDOM
SUREWIN DANGER: ROGUE LIGHTNING
2:27 – Juddmonte Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m ITV4
17/17 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
15/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Had won over at least a mile before
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Had raced at Ascot before (4 won)
12/17 – Aged either 4 or 6 years-old
11/17 – Previous Group race winner
9/17 – Winning favourites (8 of the last 11 have won)
9/17 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/17 – Aged 4 years-old
8/17 – Raced at Ascot last time out
7/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Had won a Group 1 before
11 of the last 15 winners were draw in stalls 5 or lower
Trainer William Haggas has won 2 of the last 10 runnings
Trainer Andrew Balding has won 3 of the last 8 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/2
SUREWIN BEST BET:MORE THUNDER
SUREWIN DANGER: ZEUS OLYMPIOS
York Horse Racing Trends
2:39 – John Smith’s Racing Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV4
14/14 – Aged between 3-6 years-old
13/14 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
13/14 – Won between 2-4 times before
12/14 – Carried 9st or more in weight
12/14 – Won over at least 1m before
11/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/14 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
9/14 – Irish bred
9/14 – Finished 4th or better last time out
8/14 – Had run at the track before (York)
7/14 – Placed favourites
5/14 – Trained by David O’Meara
3/14 – Winning favourites
8 of the last 9 winners drawn 8 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 runs is 13/2
SUREWIN BEST BET: CERULEAN BAY
SUREWIN DANGER: CHECKANDCHALLENGE
3:12 – John Smith’s City Walls Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 5f ITV4
15/15 – Won over 5f before
14/15 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
13/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Unplaced last time out
10/15 – Won at York before
10/15 – Rated between 101 and 111
7/15 – Had only won at Handicap class before
7/15 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
6/15 – Won by a neck or less
6/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
Last 8 winners aged between 3-5 years-old
Trainer Tim Easterby has won the race in 2019 & 2021
Washington Heights won the race in 2025
Starlust (13/8 fav) won the race in 2024
6 of the last 10 favourites (co and joint) have won
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: JAKAJARO
SUREWIN DANGER: JM JUNGLE
3:45 – John Smith’s Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2½f ITV4
22/24 – Returned 20/1 or shorter in the betting
22/24 – Had won over 1m1f or further before
20/24 – Aged 5 or younger
16/24 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
15/24 – Came from stall 9 or higher
15/24 – Carried 9-4 or less
14/24 – Aged 4 years-old
14/24 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season
13/24 – Top 4 finish in their previous race
13/24 – Officially rated between 99-105
10/24 – Had run at York before
6/24 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
3/24 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey
3/24 – Trained by William Haggas
3/24 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/24 – Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of the last 7)
2/24 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of the last 12)
Since 1960 just one winner older than 6
12 of the last 15 winners aged 4 or 5
9 of the last 12 winners carried 9st 3lbs or more
The average winning SP in the last 24 years is 11/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: RAAMMEE
SUREWIN DANGER: QUAI DE BETHUNE
4:55 – John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV4
18/20 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
16/20 – Aged 5 or younger
14/20 – Didn’t win their previous race
14/20 – Placed favourites
10/20 – Aged 4 years-old
10/20 – Had run at York before
8/20 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/20 – Horses from stall 2 that finished second
7/20 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: TABLETALK
SUREWIN DANGER: LAYFAYETTE
================================================
