We’ve plenty more Cheltenham Festival clues on offer this weekend with cracking cards at both Newbury and Warwick.
The Denman Chase, William Hill Hurdle and William Hill Game Spirit are the feature races at Newbury, while the ITV cameras also head to Warwick to take in three more races that include the Kingmaker Novices’ Chase.
As always, here at SUREWIN got all the ITV LIVE races covered for you key trends and top tips.
NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1:35 – William Hill Each Way Extra Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Stayers’ Hurdle Series Qualifier) Cl3 3m52y ITV
18/20 – Had run within the last 10 weeks
16/20 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
15/20 – Carried 10-13 or more
15/20 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
15/20 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
13/20 – Aged 7 or younger
13/20 – Carried 11-0 or more
11/20 – Unplaced last time out
11/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/20 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/20 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (1 winner)
7/20 – Aged 7 years-old
3/20 – French bred
3/20 – Won last time out
3/20 – Winning favourites (1 in last 9)
3/20 – Raced at Haydock last time out
2/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/20 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/20 – Trained by Alan King
7 of the last 8 winners aged 6-8
5 of the last 10 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: BELOW THE RADAR
SUREWIN DANGER: A PAI DE NOM
2:10 – William Hill Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV
18/22 – Rated 150+
18/22 – Aged 9 or younger
17/22 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
17/22 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
17/22 – Placed favourites
17/22 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
16/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/22 – Aged 8 or younger
13/22 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
12/22 – Raced at either Cheltenham or Kempton last time out
11/22 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
10/22 – Winning favourites
9/22 – Irish bred
8/22 – Won last time out
8/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (10 wins in total)
8/22 – French bred
6/22 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
5/22 – Returned a double-figure price
4/22 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
4/22 – Trained by the Tizzard yard
2/22 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/22 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (3 in total)
8 of the last 19 winners were aged 7 years-old
Just one winner aged 11+ since 2000
Venetia Williams has won 2 of the last 10
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
SUREWIN BEST BET: HAITI COULEURS
SUREWIN DANGER: L’HOMME PRESSE
2:45 – William Hill Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y ITV
18/20 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
17/20 – Placed favourites
16/20 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (3 winners)
16/20 – Aged 8 or younger
15/20 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
15/20 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
14/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/20 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (6 winners)
11/20 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
11/20 – Winning favourites
9/20 – Won last time out
9/20 – French bred
6/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/20 – Ran at Sandown last time out
5/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/20 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
2/20 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 5)
2/20 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase
Master Chewy won the race in 2025 (Libberty Hunter 2nd)
Note: The 2019 running was staged at Ascot
SUREWIN BEST BET: LULAMBA
SUREWIN DANGER: MEETMEBYTHESEA
3:20 – William Hill Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV
23/23 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
22/23 – Aged 7 or younger
20/23 – Rated 130 or higher
20/23 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
19/23 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
18/23 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
18/23 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
18/23 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
18/23 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
17/23 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
14/23 – Placed favourites
13/23 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
12/23 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
10/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/23 – Irish bred
8/23 – Won last time out
8/23 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 19)
7/23 – Winning favourites
5/23 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
5/23 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 7 times in all)
4/23 – Owned by JP McManus (including last two years)
3/23 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/23 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 12)
2/23 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (2 of the last 16)
2/23 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 13)
2/23 – Raced at Leopardstown last time out
1/23 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
28 of the last 29 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The last 5 winners aged 6 or 7
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: ALL IN YOU
SUREWIN DANGER: UN SENS A LA VIE
WARWICK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1:15 – Get The Best Odds With Oddschecker Warwick Mares’ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV
9/10 – Aged 6 or 7 years old
9/10 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
8/10 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
7/10 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
5/10 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
5/10 – Winning favourites (1 co-fav)
5/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Had run at Warwick before
4/10 – Rated between 140 and 149
Trainer Nicky Henderson has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 11 runnings
SUREWIN BEST BET: HOLLYGROVE CHA CHA
SUREWIN DANGER: JULIBEE ALPHA
1:50 – Bet Smarter With Oddschecker Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV
12/13 – Aged 7 or younger
12/13 – Won over 2m fences before
11/13 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
9/13 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
9/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
8/13 – Winning favourites
6/13 – Rated between 137-147
3/13 – Unplaced favs
4 of the last 9 winners have been 6 year-olds
Last 4 winners have been odds-on
8 of the last 9 winners aged between 5-7
Dan Skelton (Harry Skelton) have won 2 of the last 4 runnings
Note: 2009 renewal was at Sandown and 2024 meeting was called off
SUREWIN BEST BET: MAMBONUMBERFIVE
SUREWIN DANGER: STEEL ALLEY
2:25 – Unibet Middle Distance Series Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2) (9yo+ 0-150) 2m4f ITV
Just one past running
Le Milos (5/4 fav) won this in 2025
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 25% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Anthony Honeyball has a 38% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 26% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 24% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
SUREWIN BEST BET: LE MILOS
SUREWIN DANGER: GRANDEUR D’AME
