This Saturday the ITV Racing cameras head to Doncaster and Kempton to show EIGHT races across the two tracks – with flat racing all the way.
At Doncaster, it’s the start of the flat turf season with the traditional curtain-raiser – the William Hill Lincoln Handicap at 3:35pm – a race trainer William Haggas has won FIVE times.
While at Kempton there are three ITV races too – that include the Listed Snowdrop Fillies’ Stakes – where every winner since 2015 has returned 9/2 or shorter.
As always, here at SUREWIN we’ve got all the key trends and stats to help you whittle down the runners and put history on your side.
DONCASTER Horse Racing Trends
1:20 – William Hill Top Price Guarantee EBF Brocklesby Stakes (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV
16/18 – Won this on their debut runs
14/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Foaled in Feb or March
10/18 – Placed favourites
8/18 – Irish bred
5/18 – Horses from stall 2 that finished 1st or 2nd
5/18 – Ridden by a claimer
5/18 – Winning favourites (co & joint)
4/18 – Trained by Bill Turner (6 in total: 1996, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2011 & 2013)
3/18 – Winners from stall 2
3/18 – Winners from stall 10
2/18 – Ridden by Charles Bishop (2 of the last 7)
0/18 – Winners from stall 1
Trainer Richard Hannon has won 2 of the last 4
Trainer Richard Fahey has won 2 of the last 8 runnings (4 wins in total)
Trainer Dylan Cunha won the race in 2024
5 of the last 7 winners from stalls 5-9 (inc)
7 of the last 8 winners between stalls 5-11 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 11/2
Note: 2006 running was staged at Redcar, 2007 running was staged at Newcastle
SUREWIN BEST BET: BLIXEN FORCE
SUREWIN DANGER: STEP TO GLORY
1:50 – William Hill Price Boost Every Day Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV
20/21 – Aged 7 or younger
19/21 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
18/21 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
18/21 – Had won no more than 5 times before
16/21 – Had won over 6f before
14/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/21 – Rated 101+
13/21 – Last ran 4 months or longer ago
13/201 – Had raced at Doncaster before
12/21 – Raced at Doncaster, Ascot, Lingfield or Windsor last time out
11/21 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/21 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/21 – Unplaced favourites
4/21 – Had won at Doncaster before
4/21 – Won last time out
3/21 – Winning favourites (or joint) (just 1 on the last 10)
7 of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5
No winners from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 16 runnings
The last 8 winners between stalls 3-9
4 of the last 8 winners from stalls 4 or 5 (2 each)
The last 5 winners came between stalls 3-6 (inc)
7 of the last 16 winners came between stalls 9-16 (inc)
Montassib won the race in 2024
Spycatcher won the race in 2025
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/2
SUREWIN BEST BET: JASOUR
SUREWIN DANGER: MONTASSIB
2:25 – William Hill Epic Price Boosts Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV
20/23 – Carried 8-13 or more
18/23 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
17/23 – Aged 4 years-old
16/23 – Won over a mile before
15/223 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/23 – Won from a single-figure draw
5/23 – Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive)
3/23 – Winning favourites (none in the last 11 runnings)
3/23 – Won last time out
3/23 – Won a race at Doncaster before
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
Just 1 winner older than 6 in the last 23 years
7 of the last 10 winners aged 4
ALL of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5
Two of the last 3 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
Two 50/1 winners in the last 7 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 19/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: PRINCIPALITY
SUREWIN DANGER: CADARN
2:57 – William Hill Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m ITV
12/2 – Last ran 4+ months ago
11/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/12 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Rated 106+
10/12 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
7/12 – Had won over at least 1m before
7/12 – Winning favourites
6/12 – Winners from stalls 2 or 4
5/12 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/12 – Had won 6+ times before
4/12 – Trained by Roger Varian (4 of last 9)
3/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of the last 8)
7 of the last 101 winners from stalls 5 or lower
4 of the last 10 winners from stall 2
ALL of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: QIRAT
SUREWIN DANGER: DOCKLANDS
3.32 – William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV
21/22 – Aged 6 or younger
20/22 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
19/22 – Had won over at least 1m before
18/22 – Had won between 2-4 times before
17/22 – Having their first run of the flat season
15/22 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
15/22 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
15/22 – Unplaced favourites
13/22 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
11/22 – Aged 4 years-old
10/22 – Officially rated between 95-100
10/22 – Placed first or second last time out
9/22 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/22 – Won last time out
8/22 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
6/22 – Placed horses from stall 12 (2 winners)
6/22 – Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/22 – Winning favourites (1 in the last 11 runnings)
4/22 – Trained by William Haggas (5 in total)
2/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/22 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/22 – Trained by John Quinn
2/22 – Trained by John Gosden
2/22 – Ridden by Benoit De La Sayette (2 of last 4)
2/22 – Ridden by James Doyle (2 of last 5)
1/22 – Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 15 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 39 runnings
9 of the last 11 winners aged 4 or 5
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 14/1
Just two ‘back-to-back’ winners in the past (Ob, 1906/07 & Babur 1957/58)
SUREWIN BEST BET: ETERNAL FORCE
SUREWIN DANGER: GALERON
KEMPTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)
2:08 Virgin Bet Queen’s Prize Handicap (London Stayers’ Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 2m ITV
13/14 – Won no more than 5 times
13/14 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
12/14 – Had won over 1m6f or further
11/14 – Didn’t win last time out
11/14 – Had run at Kempton before
11/14 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Rated between 82-90
9/14 – Had won at Kempton in the past
7/14 – Only won between 1-3 times before
6/14 – Favourites that finished 2nd
2/14 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/14 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/14 – Ridden by Kieran Shoemark
1/14 – Winning favourites
7 of the last 11 winners from stalls 1-5 (inc)
SUREWIN BEST BET: ANNIVERSARY
SUREWIN DANGER: ALIGN THE STARS
2:42 Virgin Bet A Good Bet Rosebery Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m3f ITV
19/21 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
16/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
16/21 – Had won between 2-4 times before
15/21 – Rated between 89 and 100
14/21 – Carried 8-13 or more in weight
13/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/201 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/21 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/21 – Aged 4 years-old
11/21 – Unplaced favourites
9/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/21 – Won last time out
4/21 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
4/21 – Winning favourites
2/21– Trained by the Johnston yard (Mark/Charlie)
The last 3 winners all came from stall 6
Last 5 winners carried 9-1 or more
3 of the last 12 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: MARHABA GHAIYYATH
SUREWIN DANGER: MILITARY ACADEMY
3:13 Virgin Bet Snowdrop Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m ITV
19/21 – Had won between 2-4 times before
19/21 – Came from the top three in the betting
19/21 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
17/21 – Won by a 4 year-old
17/21 – Had won over at least 1m before
16/21 – Last raced 4 ½ months or more ago
15/21 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
14/21 – Rated between 90-102
14/21 – Placed favourites
10/21 – Unplaced in their last race
9/21 – Winning favourites
8/21 – Had run at Kempton before
6/21 – Rated 96 or lower
5/21 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
3/21 – Won last time out
7 of the last 16 favourites have won
The last 12 winners returned 9/2 or shorter
Trainer Marco Botti has won 3 of the last 11
Trainer John Gosden has won 2 of the last 5
Ryan Moore has ridden 2 of the last 9
William Buick has ridden the last 2 winners
3 of the last 10 winners from stall 5
7 of the last 10 winners from stalls 3-6
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 3/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: SURVIE
SUREWIN DANGER: GLITTERING SURF
