A huge day on Boxing Day (Friday, Dec 26th 2025), but the festive highlight, as racing resumes after a three-day break, is the King George VI Meeting at Kempton Park.
The King George VI Chase is the feature race of the day as punters will look to get their Christmas expenses paid for – a race in recent years we’ve seen horse racing greats like Kauto Star, Long Run, Best Mate, Kicking King, One Man and, more recently, Thistlecrack, Might Bite, landing the prize.
Plus, at Wetherby the ITV cameras are also heading there to take in the Grade 3 Rowland Meyrick Chase, and at Aintree the Formby Novices Hurdle – which has produced three Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winners since 2006.
Here at SUREWIN we take a look at each race on the Kempton card and highlight the main trends, plus the Rowland Meyrick Chase (Wetherby) and Formby Novices’ Hurdle – hopefully this will help you narrow down the fields and point you in the direction of a few festive winners.
Kempton Horse Racing Trends and Tips
12:45 Ladbrokes Best Odds Guaranteed On Racing Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl3 (4yo+ 0-135) 2m 4 1/2f ITV
21/21 – Aged 7 or younger
20/21 – Had won between 0-1 times over fences in the UK
17/21 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/21 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
12/21 – Placed favourites (1 joint)
11/21 – Carried 11-5 or more
10/21 – Officially rated between 119 and 125
9/21 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
8/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/21 – Won by a French bred horse
6/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/21 – Won last time out
2/21 – Raced at Kempton last time out
10 of the last 11 winners were aged 6 year-old
10 of the last 11 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
SUREWIN BEST BET: NOBLE PARK
SUREWIN DANGER: U CAN’T BE SERIOUS
1.20 – Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices´ Chase (In memory of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV
21/22 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
21/22 – Placed in the top two last time out
17/22 – Won last time out
17/22 – French (9) or Irish (8) bred
15/22 – Had won at least 2 times over fences
15/22 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
15/22 – Aged 6 or younger
14/22 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
13/22 – Placed favourites
12/22 – Went onto run in that season’s Brown Advisory Chase, Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
12/22 – Aged 6 years-old
11/22 – Had won (chase) over at least 3m before
10/22 – Raced at Newbury last time out
9/22 – Winning favourites
5/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/22 – Trained by David Pipe
2/22 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/22 – French trained
1/22 – Went onto run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (One winner – Coneygree 2015)
Just 2 favourites in the last 11 runnings (Shan Blue, 2020, The Jukebox Man, 2024)
SUREWIN BEST BET: WENDIGO
SUREWIN DANGER: SALVER
1.55 – Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV
20/23 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
20/23 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
20/23 – Placed favourites
18/23 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
16/23 – Went onto run in the Champion Hurdle – (Faughan (2015), Buveur D’Air (2018), Epatante (2019), Constitution Hill (2022) winners
15/23 – Won last time out
14/23 – Winning favourites
14/23 – Had run over hurdles at Kempton before
12/23 – Went onto finish in the top 5 in the Champion Hurdle that season
10/23 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (8 of the last 12), (13 in total)
9/23 – Ran in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Newcastle) last time out
8/23 – French bred
8/23 – Irish trained
4/23 – Trained by Noel Meade
2/23 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/23 – Trained by Willie Mullins
Constitution Hill won the race in 2022, 2023 and 2024
SUREWIN BEST BET: SIR GINO
SUREWIN DANGER: GOLDEN ACE
2.30 – Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV
21/23 – French (14) or Irish bred (7)
19/23 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
19/23 – Had won a Grade One chase before
19/23 – Aged 8 or younger
18/23 – Had won over 3m or further (fences) before
17/23 – Finished in the top three last time out
16/23 – Placed favourites
16/23 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
16/23 – Officially rated 169 or higher
14/23 – Had won a race over fences at Kempton before
12/23 – Won last time out
11/23 – Winning favourites
11/23 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/23 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (13 times in all)
10/23– Ran in the Betfair Chase (Haydock) last time out
8/23 – Won by a previous winner of the race
4/23 – Won by an Irish-based yard (only 6 in the last 39 runnings)
7 of the last 11 winners aged 8
8 of the last 9 winners aged 7 or 8
Paul Nicholls, the Tizzard yard and Nicky Henderson have trained 16 of the last 19 winners between them (11 Nicholls, 2 Tizzard, 3 Henderson)
Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice (2021 Tornado Flyer and 2001 Florida Pearl)
The average winning SP in the last 23 years is 6/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: JANGO BAIE
SUREWIN DANGER: THE JUKEBOX MAN
3.05 – Ladbrokes Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) 2m RTV
Only 2 past runnings
Kientzheim won the race last season (trained by Ben Haslam)
SUREWIN BEST BET: IONIAN
SUREWIN DANGER: ZAMEK
3.40 – Ladbrokes Get Rewarded With Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle Cl3 (3yo+ 0-140) 2m5f RTV
18/18 – Won no more than 3 times (UK Hurdles)
16/18 – Aged 6 or younger
16/18 – Won between 0-2 times hurdles (UK)
13/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
13/18 – Ran 5 or less weeks ago
12/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/18 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
11/18 – Officially rated 120-129
10/18 – Won last time out
10/18 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/18 – Unplaced favourites
6/18 – French bred
5/18 – Winning favourites (only 2 in the last 10)
4/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of last 5 winners)
10 of the last 11 winners aged between 4-6
East India Express won the race in 2024
SUREWIN BEST BET: ONEWAYWEST
SUREWIN DANGER: GEORGE’S LAD
Wetherby Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
1.35 – William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m45y ITV
15/17 – Had won 3 or less times over fences (UK)
15/17 – Aged 8 or younger
15/17 – Didn’t win last time out
15/17 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
15/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
13/17 – Had raced at Wetherby before
11/17 – Had won over 3m (chase) before
10/17 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
9/17 – Irish bred
9/17 – Unplaced in their last race
4/17 – Raced at either Haydock (2) or Aintree (2) last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites
Some Scope (5/2 fav) won the race in 2024
Fontaine Collonges (100/30) won the race in 2023
10 of the last 11 winners aged 7 or 8
SUREWIN BEST BET: KONFUSION
SUREWIN DANGER: SOME SCOPE
Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.05 – William Hill Formby Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Formerly The Tolworth Hurdle) (GBB Race) CI1 (3yo+) 2m ½ ITV
20/21 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
20/21 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
18/21 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
18/21 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
18/21 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
17/21 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
17/21 – Came from the top three in the market
17/21 – Won last time out
14/21 – Placed favourites
12/21 – Won by an Irish bred horse
11/21– Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
11/21 – Winning Favourites
6/21 – Ran at either Sandown (4) or Newbury (2) last time out
5/21 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
5/21 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/21 – Won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle later that season (Constitution Hill, 2022, Summerville Boy, 2018 & Noland, 2006)
2/21 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
1/21 – Won the Neptune Investment Hurdle (Gallagher) later that season (Yorkhill 2016)
5 or 6 years-old have won 26 of the last 33 runnings
Potters Charm won this race in 2024
Since 1988 ALL winners have been aged 7 or younger
Note: Only ran at Aintree from 2023 (Sandown before)
SUREWIN BEST BET: MYDADDYPADDY
SUREWIN DANGER: IDAHO SUN
