It’s Ayr Gold Cup Day in Scotland (Ayr racecourse) this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are also heading to Newbury for their Dubai Duty Free Day – We’ve 9 LIVE races in total and we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends for each race, plus our verdict.
Did you know – 19 of the last 25 Ayr Gold Cup winners FAILED to win their last race, while 15 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 8 or higher.
Use Andy Newton’s key trends to whittle down the runners and help find the best profiles of past winners.
AYR Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.20 – Ladbrokes ‘Bet £5 Get £30 New Customer Offer’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV3
14/14 – Won at least twice before
14/14 – Rated between 88 and 96
13/14 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Won previously over 1m
12/14 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Aged between 3-5 years-old
10/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/14 – Drawn between stalls 3 and 9 (inc) (7 of the last 9)
9/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Carried 9-3 or less in weight
8/14 – Irish bred
8/14 – Had run at Ayr before
4/14 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by David O’Meara (2 of last 8)
2/14 – Trained by Richard Spencer
Thunder Roar won the race last year
SUREWIN BEST BET: HAWKSBILL
SUREWIN DANGER: THUNDER ROAR
1.55 – Ladbrokes ‘Get Racing Bet Builder Winnings Boosts’ Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV3
14/15 – Yet to race at Ayr
13/15 – Didn’t win last time out
14/15 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Won over 1m2f or more
13/15 – Winners from stalls 8 or lower
12/15 – Rated between 101 and 111
11/15 – Won 3 or more times before
11/15 – Irish bred
9/15 – Aged 4 or older
9/15 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Trained by Andrew Balding (4 of the last 13)
3/15 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/15 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
2/15 – Trained by the Johnston yard (2 of the last 11)
Owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
7 of the last 10 winners drawn between 3-7
SUREWIN BEST BET: ICE MAX
SUREWIN DANGER: HIGH STOCK
2.30 – Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV3
23/23 – Carried 8-11 or more
21/23 – Previous winners over 6f
19/23 – Aged 5 or younger
19/23 – Carried 9-0 or more
18/23 – Had 5 or more runs that season
16/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
16/23 – Winning distance 1 length or less
16/23 – Had raced at Ayr before (7 won)
15/23 – Finished 5th or better last time out
14/23 – Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
13/23 – Unplaced favourites
9/23 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
6/23 – Drawn in stalls 8 to 20 (inc) i.e horses drawn either high or low have done best
5/23 – Won last time out
5/23 – Winning Favourites (2/3 favs have won)
3/23 – Trained by Richard Fahey
1/23 – Filly or mare winners
Tim Easterby has won 2 of the last 7
7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 11 or lower
SUREWIN BEST BET: TOYOTOMI
SUREWIN DANGER: COMMANCHE FALLS
3.05 – Ladbrokes ‘New Customers Get 50/1 Old Firm Offer’ Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV
21/23 – Had never raced at Ayr before
20/23 – Finished 4th or better last time out
18/23 – Previous winners over 6f
19/23 – Had won one or two times before
17/23 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
16/23 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
15/23 – Winning distance 1 length or further
15/23 – Had 3 or more runs that season
13/23 – Placed favourites
11/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/23 – Won last time out
5/23 – Winning favourites
3/23 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/23 – Trained by Bryan Smart
William Haggas has won 2 of the last 8
Trainer Richard Fahey has won 3 of the last 6 runnings
3 of the last 6 winners from stall 4
SUREWIN BEST BET: RUBY MOON
SUREWIN DANGER: ANGEL IN MY HEART
3.40 – Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV
25/25 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
22/25 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
22/25 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
20/25 – Had won over 6f before
19/25 – Failed to win their last race
18/25 – Carried 9-1 or more
17/25 – Came from a double-figure stall
16/25 – Rated 90-101
16/25 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
16/25 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
14/25 – Winning distance 1 length or less
14/25 – Had 7 or more runs that season
13/25 – Unplaced favourites
13/25 – Ran at Doncaster (5), Goodwood (5) or Haydock (3) last time out
13/25 – Had raced at Ayr before
5/25 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
4/25 – Winning favourites (or joint) (only 5 winning favs since 1980)
2/25 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of the last 20)
2/25 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 13)
2/25 – Trained by David O’Meara (2 of the last 12)
0/25 – Filly or mare winners
8 of the last 9 winners were drawn 12+
Trainer Karl Burke has won the race three times (1994, 1998 & 2024)
18 of the last 21 winners carried 9-0 or more in weight
15 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 21 winners came from stall 8)
Since 1980 just 8 winners aged 6 or older
Since 1980 just 2 winners aged 7 or older
The last horse to win ‘back-to-back’ races was Heronslea in 1930/31
Note: The 2018 renewal was a dead-heat
SUREWIN BEST BET: DANCE IN THE STORM
SUREWIN DANGER: COUL ANGEL
NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)
1.02 – Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y ITV3
23/24 – Raced four or more times that season
21/24 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
19/24 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
19/24 – Won a Listed or Group race before
19/24 – Aged 5 or younger
18/24 – Won over 5f previously
15/24 – Won 4 or more times
13/24 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
8/24 – Previous Group race winners
7/24 – Won their last race
7/24 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 4 of last 13 winners)
7/24 – Mare winners
6/24 – Favourites
5 of the last 8 winners drawn 5 or lower
3 of the last 11 winners stall 3
Jamie Spencer has ridden 2 of the last 11 winners
First Instinct won this race last season
SUREWIN BEST BET: STARLUST
SUREWIN DANGER: FIRST INSTINCT
1.37 – Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m 5 1/2f ITV
3 previous runnings
2/3 – Hughie Morrison trained
0/3 – Winning favourites
Trainer Faye Bramley has a 44% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Alan King is just 3-64 (5%) with his runners at Newbury
Trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam is just 1-46 (2%) with his runners at Newbury
SUREWIN BEST BET: FURTHUR
SUREWIN DANGER: ROARING LEGEND
2.12 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (in honour of Ian Balding) (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y ITV3
19/24 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
19/24 – Won over 6f previously
17/24 – Won from draw 5 or lower
17/24 – Raced 3 or more times
16/24 – Favourites placed
15/24 – Foaled in March or later
15/24 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/24 – Favourites (or joint) that won
9/24 – Won by an April foal
9/24 – Won their previous race
8/24 – Won exactly two races before
5/24 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
4/24 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
2/24 – Trained by Clive Cox (2 of the last 10)
2/24– Trained by Roger Varian (2 of the last 7)
2/24 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/24 – Trained by Karl Burke
3/24 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/24 – Filly winners
7 of the last 11 winners from stalls 3 or lower
The last 5 winners came from gates 2 or 8
6 of the last 8 winners from stalls 2 (3) or 8 (3)
Trainer Charlie Appleby won this race for the first time in 2025 (Words Of Truth)
SUREWIN BEST BET: ARAPAHO GOLD
SUREWIN DANGER: JOLIVETTE
2.47 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2f ITV3
15/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
15/16 – Won over 1m2f or further before
14/16 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
13/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old (9 of the last 11)
12/16 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
12/16 – Drawn 8 or lower
10/16 – Won 3 or 4 times
7/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Rated between 92 and 97 (inc)
6/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Had run at Newbury before
8 of the last 11 winners drawn 5 or lower
Mustazeed has won the last 2 runnings
SUREWIN BEST BET: GONNA FLY
SUREWIN DANGER: FANTASTER BELIEVER
