It’s Guineas Weekend at Newmarket this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are heading to Goodwood & Thirsk.
As always, here at SUREWIN we’ve all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle to put history on your side.
Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1:10 – Oddschecker British EBF Ellen Chaloner Stakes (Listed Race) (Formerly The Kilvington Stakes) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f RTV
12/12 – Aged between 3-5
11/12 – Won over 5f or 6f before
10/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
9/12 – Won between 1-2 times before
9/12 – Didn’t win last time out
8/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/12 – Placed favourites
7/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
6/12 – Aged 3 years-old
6/12 – Came from stalls 11 (3) or 7 (3)
4/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Trained by William Haggas (3 of the last 7)
3 of the last 9 winners came from stall 11
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2
Note: The race was formerly run at Nottingham from 2021 back
SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow
1:45 – Betfred Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 6f ITV
12/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/13 – Had won over 6f before
10/13 – Won 3+ times before
10/13 – Didn’t win last time out
10/13 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/13 – Returned 13/2 or bigger
9/13 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
8/13 – Ran at Newmarket before (Rowley)
7/13 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
6/13 – Rated 100+
4/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/13 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 5)
0/13 – Winners from stalls 1 or 2
6 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow
2:20 – Betfred Suffolk Stakes Handicap Cl2 1m1f ITV
18/20 – Had won at least twice before
18/20 – Had won over at least a mile before
17/20 – Priced 12/1 or shorter
16/20 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
16/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/20 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
14/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/20 – Rated between 90 and 96
12/20 – Aged 4 years-old
11/20 – Returned between 9/1 and 12/1 in the betting
10/20 – Having their first run of the season
7/20 – Won last time out
6/20 – Irish bred
2/20 – Winning favourites
2/20 – Won by Charlie Appleby (2 of the last 7)
3/20 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 5)
William Buick has won 3 of the last 8
6 of the last 8 winners drawn between 2-7
Just 2 winners from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 17 runnings
SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow
2:55 – Hong Kong Jockey Club Palace House Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV
21/23 – Won 3 or more times before
20/23 – Had won over 5f before
19/23 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
19/23 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
19/23 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
17/23 – Had run at Newmarket before
17/23– Aged 5 or younger
15/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/23 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/23 – Rated between 107 and 114
13/23 – Placed favourites
11/23 – Won last time out
7/23 – Winning favourites
5/23 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/23 – Trained by Bryan Smart
2/23 – Trained by Michael Dods
2/23 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of last 5 runnings)
Just 6 placed horses from stall 1 in the last 18 runnings
5 of the last 9 runnings went to 4 year-olds
8 of the last 19 winners came from stalls 2-7 (inc)
Rumstar won the race in 2025
SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow
3:35 – Betfred 2000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV
23/24 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
22/24 – Had won over at least 7f before
22/24 – Had won between 2-5 times before
20/24 – Had won a Group race before
20/24 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
19/24 – Won last time out
19/24 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
16/24 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
15/24 – Having their first run of the season
15/24 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/24 – Placed favourites
12/24 – Won by an Irish-based yard
12/24 – Irish bred
11/24 – Had won over a mile before
9/24 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
9/24 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 3
7/24 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
6/24 – Winning favourites
5/24 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
5/24 – Won the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes
3/24 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
2/24 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 6)
2/24 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (3 of the last 4)
10 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 24 years is 9/1
Other 2,000 Guineas Facts
– Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019
– Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016
– Trainer John Gosden has never won the 2000 Guineas
– Trainer Charlie Appleby has won the last two runnings (3 of the last 4)
SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow
Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
2.05 – Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV
12/13 – Didn’t win last time out
11/13 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/13 – Won 2 or more times before
9/13 – Yet to race at the track
8/13 – Unplaced last time out
8/13 – Horse from stall 1 placed in the top 3
8/13 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/13 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Aged 4 years-old
7/13 – Winners from stalls 1 or 5
7/13 – Horse from stall 5 placed in the top 3
6/13 – Won over a mile before
6/13 – Horse from stall 7 placed in the top 3
4/13 – Winners from stall 1
3/13 – Ran a Newmarket last time out
3/13 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow
Thirsk Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
2:40 – SkyBet Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m ITV
13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
13/14 – Won at least twice before
13/14 – Didn’t win last time out
12/14 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
12/14 – Won over at least 1m before
12/14 – Unplaced last time out
11/14 – Drawn in stalls 7 or higher
11/14 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Rated between 87-94 (inc)
10/14 – Won between 2-4 times
8/14 – Had run at the track before (3 won)
7/14 – Winners from a double-figure draw
2/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Michael Dods (2 of the last 9)
9 of the last 12 winners returned 13/2 or bigger in the betting
Flight Plan won the race in 2025
Northern Express won the race in 2023
Note: The 2018 running was staged at Wetherby
SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow
