This summer I’ll be taking a weekly look at the early markets for the weekend racing. The aim of this column isn’t necessarily to point out the most likely winners, or the horses I’ll be tipping on the day. The idea is to find runners that are significantly underestimated in the early betting, that should be much shorter should they find themselves amongst the final declarations. Pointing out double entries, where applicable, will be part of the process of highlighting the most likely runners. That’s less of an issue this weekend though.
It’s music to my ears that flat racing returns this weekend. We have our standard turf opener at Doncaster, where the Lincoln is the big handicap of the day, plus a nice card at Kempton with plenty of runners who are fit from a winter campaign.
Doncaster is good to soft at the time of writing. There is quite a bit of rain forecast for Tuesday evening, which may push the going closer to soft, but I can see a few drying days in the forecast too and I’d imagine we’ll be racing on something pretty close to the current good to soft.
The Lincoln is obviously the main betting highlight, and I’ve already shared an ante post with members. The ‘each way value’ at this point probably lies with Tribal Chief, who will appreciate any rain, despite his latest victory coming on good to firm. On that day he beat Treble Tee into 2nd, who would win by almost 3 lengths on his next start. The 3rd, Linwood, won two starts later, by over 5 lengths too.
That form looks really strong and his effort last time out in the Balmoral was a serious effort considering the race favoured the prominent racers and he was probably slightly disadvantaged by the part of the track he raced on. He’s run well fresh before and I really make him more of a 12/1 chance for this, so the 20/1 right now is interesting with a jockey already booked.
The Spring Mile, the consolation race for the Lincoln, is often a better betting heat than the big race itself, but given it’s made up of those that don’t make the cut, there will be no ante post betting on that one sadly. I’ll surely have something for members in that one.
Listed races aren’t really my thing, so that’s a further three live contests on Saturday that aren’t going to appeal as betting heats.
That leaves two handicaps at Kempton – the Queen’s Vase and the Rosebery.
The former is a 2m contest which has only attracted 9 entries at the current time. To be honest, I think the handicapper has pretty much all of these in his grip, with the exception of Anniversary. The possible issue for that horse is that I didn’t really think he stayed 14f last season, so it’s difficult to now fancy him at 2m. I think he’d be really interesting in a mile and a half handicap on soft ground in the next couple of months, so I’m hoping he runs like a non stayer again on Saturday.
The Rosebery looks more of an interesting betting heat, and the first one I had to look at was Whitcombe Rockstar, who was a nice priced winner for the service last time out. He’s got an amazing record at Kempton, but this is tougher and he’s gone up another 5lbs. I suspect he’ll run well without winning, but I may revisit him if he gets a good draw and his main rivals don’t.
The draw will be an important factor in this race. The only winner in the past decade drawn higher than 6 managed to defy his draw by going straight to the front. I’m generally quite reluctant to get involved in races of this type before the draw is made, as the right horse will drift on the day if he’s drawn very high.
The obvious pair are two of the favourites, El Burham and Respond. I’m surprised Marhaba Ghaiyyath is as short as he is given I think he’ll be much better over shorter. Respond seems to be the one open to most progress, but he’s been hammered for winning a weak race easily, so he won’t be appealing as a bet at any point.
I may end up coming back to Whitcombe Rockstar as a solid each way choice, but so much is going to depend on the draw/pace set up that it’s impossible to get involved in this one just yet.
My main bets on Saturday, other than the Lincoln and the consolation race, may well come in two Kempton handicaps that aren’t amongst the live coverage. In particular, there is one in the 7f handicap that I’ll be very interested in should he run, although the draw is also very important over that course and distance, so I can’t promise members that he’ll be a bet even if he is declared.
This article was written by Sam Darby (Winning Post Racing Tips). Join his service for quality flat tips plus instant access to 2x free ebooks (£44 value).
Note that suggestions in this column are not necessarily going to reflect what is tipped to members. All suggestions are a guide only.
