Another busy Saturday of horse racing ahead with the LIVE ITV action this week coming from Chester, York and with the Saturday Haydock abandoned their races have been moved to Carlisle this weekend.
As always, here at SUREWIN we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – use these to help narrow down the field and find the best profiles of past winners.
Carlisle Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1:30 – Betway Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV
Stressfree won the race in 2025
Trainer Andrew Balding has a 33% SR with his runners at Carlisle
Note: This race is normally run at Haydock Park
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
2:00 – Betway Reverence Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 6f ITV
8/8 – Aged between 4-6
7/8 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/8 – Drawn in stalls 6 or higher
6/8 – Carried between 9-2 and 9-8 (inc)
6/8 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
2/8 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/8 – Ridden by Charles Bishop
2/8 – Trained by Eve Johnson Houghton
0/8 – Winning favourites
Kodi Lion won the race in 2025
The average SP in the last 8 runnings is 9/1
Note: This race is normally run at Haydock Park
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
2:33 – Betway Achilles Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 5f ITV
16/16 – Returned 14/1 or shorter
14/16 – Had won over 5f before
14/16 – Didn’t win last time out
13/16 – Aged 5 or older
13/16 – Had raced in the last 10 weeks
12/16 – Had run at the course before
12/16 – Had finished in the top 5 last time out
11/16 – Drawn between stalls 2-7 (inc)
10/16 – Won between 6-8 times before
10/16 – Winning distance 1 length or less
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by William Haggas
2/16 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy (2 of the last 9)
11 of the last 12 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
4 of the last 10 winners from stalls 5 (2) or 9 (2)
The last 13 winners came between stalls 2-10
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
Balmoral Lady won the race in 2025
Note: The 2020 running was staged at Doncaster
Note: This race is normally run at Haydock Park
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
3:10 – Betway Lester Piggott Fillies’ Stakes (Reg as the Pinnacle Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m3f ITV
22/23 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
21/23 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
20/23 – Rated 92 or higher
19/23 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
18/23 – Aged 4 years-old
18/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
16/23 – Placed favourites
15/23 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
14/23 – Had won over 1m4f before
6/23 – Had run at Haydock before
7/23 – Winning favourites
7/23 – Won last time out
3/23 – Trained by William Haggas (3 of the last 7)
3/23 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 10, 3 in total)
2/23 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/23 – Ridden by Tom Marquand (2 of the last 4)
The last 10 winners returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
The last 12 winners aged 4 or 5
Estrange won the race in 2025
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3
Note: This race is normally run at Haydock Park
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
3:45 – Betway Silver Bowl Handicap (Hertitage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo) 1m ITV
21/22 – Had won between 1-3 times before
21/22 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
20/22 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
20/22 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
20/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
18/22 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
18/22 – Placed last time out
17/22 – Carried 9-2 or less
15/22 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
14/22 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
11/22 – Won last time out
8/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/22 – Trained by the Gosden yard (2 of the last 6)
2/22 – Trained by Clive Cox (2 of the last 7)
2/22 – Trained by the Johnston yard (2 of last 12)
Roger Varian has trained 2 of the last 5 winners
David Probert has ridden 3 of the last 15 winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
Note: This race is normally run at Haydock Park
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
Chester Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
3:30 – Virgin Bet Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 7f ITV
Only 1 previous running
Myal won the race in 2025
Spirit Genie won the race in 2024
Both winners aged 4
No winning favourite yet
Trainer Ian Williams is just 10-79 with his runners at Chester
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
Beverley Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1:45 – Napoleons Casino Hull Handicap Cl4 (4yo+ 0-85) 1m2f ITV
No previous runnings
Trainer James Owen has a 50% SR with his 4+yolds at Beverley
Trainer Sam England has a 30% SR with his 4+yolds at Beverley
Trainer Charlie Johnston has a 29% SR with his 4+yolds at Beverley
Trainer David O’Meara is just 4-65 with his 4+yolds at Beverley
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
2:15 – Hilary Needler Trophy Fillies’ Conditions Stakes (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV
17/19 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
15/19 – Had won over 5f before
14/19 – Had won just once before
13/19 – Irish bred
13/19 – Had raced between 1-2 times before
12/19 – Had raced in the last 2 weeks
10/19 – Won last time out
10/19 – Placed favourites
5/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/19 – Trained by Kevin Ryan (4 in total)
5/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Raced at York last out
3/19 – Trained by Tim Easterby (6 in total)
2/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of the last 6)
2/19– Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/19 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope (2 of the last 3)
1/19 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 9/2
14 of the last 15 winners drawn 9 or lower
12 or the last 14 winners were foaled in Feb or March
9 of last 16 winners have been drawn in stalls 6-9 (inc)
Argentine Tango won the race in 2025
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
2:48 – bet365 Two Year Old Trophy Conditions Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV
15/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/15 – Feb, March or April bred
15/15 – Drawn in 6 or lower
13/15 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
10/15 – Favourites placed
9/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/15 – Won over 5f before
9/15 – Won at least once before
8/15 – Irish bred
7/15 – Had raced twice or more
7/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Drawn in stall 1
3/15 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of the last 5)
Trainer Andrew Balding is 4-8 (50%) with his 2yolds at Beverley (won 2 of last 4)
The last 12 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/2
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
