The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse, while the ITV cameras also head to York – plus it’s Irish Derby weekend over at the Curragh, with the big race on Sunday (4:35pm) – as always, Andy Newton’s got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.
York Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RacingTV)
1:55 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Mile Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1m ITV
Just one past running
Trainer William Haggas won the race last year
Trainer William Haggas have a 23% SR with their 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer John & Thady Gosden have a 22% SR with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 11-437 (3%) with their runners at York
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
2:25 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dash Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV
Just one past running
Trainer Nigel Tinkler won the race last year
Squealer won the race in 2025
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 11-437 (3%) with their runners at York
Trainer Richard Hughes has a 38% SR (6-16) with his 3yolds at York
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
2:58 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV
22/23 – Won over 7f before
20/23 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
20/23 – Had at least 1 run already that season
15/23 – Aged 5 or younger
13/23 – Finished unplaced last time out
13/23 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
12/23 – Unplaced favourites
11/23 – Came from stall 3 or lower
8/23 – Winning favourites
5/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/23 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 15 runnings)
Trainer John Gosden has won the race 5 times
12 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
Jockey James Doyle has won 2 of the last 9 runnings
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
Only 2 winning 3 year-olds since 2004 and 3 since 1996
Note: Was run at Newmarket in 2024
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (Sky/ITV)
1:40 – Education Network Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 7f ITV
9/9 – Aged between 3-7 years-old
9/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 – Won between 1-3 times
8/9 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
7/9 – Carried 9-3 or more
7/9 – Irish bred winners
7/9 – Won over 7f before
6/9 – Aged 4 years-old
5/9 – Rated 91 (3) or 97 (2)
5/9 – Had run at Newcastle before
4/9 – Ran at Goodwood (2) or Thirsk (2) last time out
4/9 – From stalls 1 (2) or 9 (2)
2/9 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 6 winners aged 4
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1
Jockey James Doyle has won the last 2
Wathnan Racing have won the last 2
Trainer William Haggas has a 40% with his 4+yolds at Newcastle
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
2:10 – Jenningsbet Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV
23/24 – Had won over 6f before
21/24 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
18/24 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/24 – Unplaced last time out
16/24 – Yet to win a Group race
15/24 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
15/24 – Placed favourites
15/24 – Had won at least 4 times before
14/24 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/24 – Aged 5 or older
8/24 – Ran at Ascot last time out
8/24 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
8/24 – Had run at Newcastle before
4/24 – Won last time out
3/24 – Trained by William Haggas (3 of the last 4)
2/24 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/24 – Ridden by Tom Marquand (2 of the last 3)
15 of the last 23 winners came between stalls 1-5
4 of the last 8 winners came from stall 2
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 21 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
7 of the last 10 winners from stalls 3 or lower (6 from gates 2 or 3)
Diligent Harry won the race in 2025
Tiber Flow won the race in 2024
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
2:40 – Jenningsbet Festival Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation race for the Plate) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV
10 previous runnings
10/10 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
10/10 – Ran in the last 2 months
9/10 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
9/10 – Won with between 9-3 and 9-10 in weight
9/10 – Won over at least 1m6f in the past
8/10 – Aged 4 (4) or 6 (4) years-old
6/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
5/10 – Winners came from stalls 10-19 (inc)
4/10 – Won over 2m (flat) in the past
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Had run at Newcastle (flat) before
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1
Savrola won the race in 2025
Alphonse Le Grande won the race in 2024
The last 10 winners aged 4-6
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
3:15 – Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV
23/24 – Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
23/24 – Finished fifth or better last time out
20/24 – Came from stall 14 or lower
20/24 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
18/24 – Aged 6 or younger
18/24 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
14/24 – Carried 8-12 or less
14/24 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/24 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
8/24 – Won by a National Hunt yard
7/24 – Won their previous race
6/24 – Winning favourites
5/24 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
3/24 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 17 winners)
2/24 – Trained by Donald McCain (2 of the last 16)
2/24 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 7)
2/24 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 11)
1/24 – Won by a previous winner of the race
Note: From 2016 the Northumberland Plate was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle (moved from the turf)
Spirit Mixer won the race in 2025 and was 2nd in 2022
Other Northumberland Plate Facts
Just 1 horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985 (2021, Nicholas T (9))
Six of the last 20 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
6 of the last 11 winners has carried between 9st 1lbs and 9st 9lbs
Since the race was run on the AW (2016, 9 runnings) 8 winners drawn from stalls 9-17
9 of the last 9 winners between stalls 7-17
13 of the last 15 winner from stalls 14 or lower
11 winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 5 of the last 14
The Paul Cole yard trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
3:45 – Jenningsbet Over 200 Shops Nationwide Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV
Just 9 previous runnings
9/9 – Had won over 6f before
9/9 – Won between 2-5 times
8/9 – Aged between 3-6 years-old
8/9 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
7/9 – Returned between 15/2 or shorter
7/9- Unplaced last time out
6/9 – Drawn in stalls 9 or higher
6/9 – Placed favourites
6/9 – Rated between 95 and 99 (inc)
5/9 – Had run at the track before
2/9 – Came from stalls10
2/9 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 7 winners came from stalls 9-11
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 9/1
Trainer William Haggas has a 40% SR with his 4+yolds at Newcastle
Trainer Tim Easterby has won 2 of the last 6
Fivethousandandtoone won the race in 2025
SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow
