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Chester TV Tips and Stats: Fri 6th May 2022

Friday, May 6, 2022

As we move into the final day of the Chester May Meeting we've the three-day highlight with the Chester Cup now being run on the Friday. Loads of key trends to take in ahead the big race - like, did you know 18 of the last 19 Chester Cup winners were aged 7 or younger, while 13 of the last 19 came from stalls 7 or lower.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at SUREWIN with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

 

CHESTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.30 – ICM Stellar Sports Earl Grosvenor Handicap Cl2 7f122y ITV4

17/19 - Didn’t win their last race
16/19 - Had a previous run that season
16/19 - Finished unplaced last time out
15/19 - Had won over this trip before (or further)
15/19 - Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
14/19 - Had run before at Chester
14/19 - Carried 8-10 or more
13/19 - Favourites placed
10/19 - Came from stall 5 or higher
9/19 - Horses placed from stall 1
9/19 - Won by a 4 year-old
5/19 - Won by the favourite
4/19 – Winning horses from stall 1
2/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/19 – Trained by Tom Dascombe
2/19 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan

SUREWIN BEST BET: FOOLS RUSH IN (e/w)
SUREWIN DANGER: REVICH 

2.05 – Deepbridge Handicap Cl2 1m2 1/2f ITV4

12/12 – Won at least twice before
11/12 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
11/12 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
10/12 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
10/12 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Placed favourites
9/12 – Rated between 90-95
9/12 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
8/12 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute

SUREWIN BEST BET: BARYSHNIKOV
SUREWIN DANGER: SKYCUTTER

2.40 – Irish Throughbred Marketing IRE-Incentive Scheme Huxley Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f75y ITV4

18/19 – Aged either a 4 or 5 year-old
16/19 – Had won over 1m2f before
14/19 – Had a previous race that season
14/19 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd in this race
14/19 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
12/19 – Winners from between stalls 1-4
11/19 – Failed to win their previous race
10/19 – Winning favourites
7/19 – Returned 6/4 or shorter in the betting
6/19 – Had raced at Chester before
6/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
5/19 – Ran in the John Porter at Newbury before winning this
5/19 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien

SUREWIN BEST BET: SOLID STONE
SUREWIN DANGER: MEGALLAN

3.15 – tote+ Chester Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f147y ITV4

18/19 – Aged 7 years-old or younger
16/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
14/19 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-olds
13/19 – Finished unplaced last time out
13/19 – Officially rated between 93-99
13/19 – Had won previously over at least 2m on the flat
12/19 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/19 – Won from stall 7 or lower
12/19 – Carried 9-2 or less
12/19 – Had raced within the last 2 months
11/19 – Favourites were unplaced
9/19 – Irish bred
4/19 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/19 – Won by owner Dr Marwan Koukash
3/19 – Had won at the track before
3/19 – Ran at Aintree over hurdles last time out
3/19 – Won their previous race
2/19 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/19 – Trained by Ian Williams
2/19 – Won by the favourite
1/19 - Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 12/1

Key Chester Cup Stats

The race has seen repeat winners three times since 1997
Since 1975 we’ve only seen 4 winning favourites
The Hills yard took the race in 1980, 1999, 2001 and 2009
Since 1975 all winners have been aged 8 or younger
Since 1975 there have only been three winners aged 8 years-old
Since 1981 only 8 winners have carried more than 9-2 to victory
4 of the last 11 winners came from NH yards
6 of the last 8 winners carried 9st or more
3 of the last 9 winners returned 10/1
Dr Marwan Koukash has owned 4 of the last 13 winners

SUREWIN BEST BET: FALCON EIGHT
SUREWIN DANGER: COLTRANE

 

3.45 – Boodles Secret Garden Conditions Stakes Cl3 (3yo+) 5f ITV4

8/8 – Drawn in stalls 3-8 (inc)
7/8 – Carried 8-13 or more in weight
7/8 – Had won at Chester before
6/8 – Irish bred
6/8 – Unplaced last time out
5/8 – Winners from stalls 3 (3) or 6 (2)
5/8 – Aged 5 years-old
5/8 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/8 – Rated 100+
3/8 – Winning favourites
3/8 – Trained by Tom Dascombe
2/8 – Ridden by Richard Kingscote
0/8 – Winners from stall 1

SUREWIN BEST BET: ACKLAM EXPRESS
SUREWIN DANGER: BLUE DE VEGA

 

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