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Saturday Horse Racing Tips and Trends (Sat 30th Dec 23)

Friday, December 29, 2023

The National Hunt action continues this Saturday 30th December – with the ITV cameras at Newbury for a decent card that includes four LIVE races and the Grade One Challow Hurdle, plus they are also at Haydock and Taunton. 

We’ve got all the key trends and stats for all the LIVE races to help you whittle down the fields.

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV) 

1.50 – Coral Racing Club Join For Free Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+) 2m4½f ITV4

9/10 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
9/10 – Had won 2 or more times before (hurdles)
8/10 – French (3) or Irish (5) bred
8/10 – Had won over the trip (2m4f) before
8/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Favourites placed
7/10 – Aged 5 years-old
5/10 – Had raced at the track before
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/10 – Ran at Newbury last time out
2/10 – Winning favourites

SUREWIN BEST BET: GET A TONIC
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: IRISH HILL

2.25 - Coral Mandarin Handicap Chase (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-135) 3m2f ITV4

12/12 – Had raced in the last 8 weeks
10/12 – Had won over 3m+ (fences) before
10/12 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/12 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Had won between 1-2 times before (fences)
9/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/12 – Aged between 6-9 years-old
7/12 – Had raced at the track before
6/12 – Unplaced favourites
6/12 – Irish bred
4/12 – Winning favourites

SUREWIN BEST BET: ATLANTA BRAVE
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: LASKALIN

3.00 - Coral Challow Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m4½f ITV4

17/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/17 – Had raced in the last 8 weeks
17/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
17/17 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
15/17 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
13/17 – Won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
13/17 – Had won over 2m4f or further (hurdles) before
13/17 – Won last time out
10/17 – Had won a Grade 2 Hurdle race before
10/17 – Winning favourites (7 of the last 8)
9/17 – Aged 5 years-old
8/17 – Irish bred
5/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (last 3 winners)
3/17 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/17 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 11/4

SUREWIN BEST BET: WILLMOUNT
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: JOHNNYWHO

3.35 – Coral Get Closer To The Action Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3) (4yo+) 2m6½f ITV4

Just 3 past runnings
No winning favourite
3/3 – Aged 6 or 7
3/3 – Returned 7/1 or bigger
2/3 – Aged 6 years-old
2/3 – Ridden by a claimer
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 26% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Jockey Harry Cobden has a 28% record riding over fences at the track
Jockey Charlie Deutsch has a 32% record riding over fences at the track
Jockey Nico de Boinville is just 5% record riding over fences at the track

SUREWIN BEST BET: PASSING WELL
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: WALKING ON AIR

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV /ITV4)

1.25 – Betfred Last Fling Handicap Chase (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145) 3m3½f ITV4

Just 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Had won over 3m+ fences before
7/7 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
5/7 – Unplaced last time out
5/7 – Aged between 7-10
4/7 – Irish bred
3/7 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
3/7 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
3/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Trained by Venetia Williams
Trainer Ventia Williams has a 24% record with her chasers at the track

SUREWIN BEST BET: COLLECTORS ITEM
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: EAST STREET

Taunton Horse Racing Trends (SkySports Racing/ITV)

2.10 – Byerley Stud Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+) 2m½f ITV4

9/9 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
9/9 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
8/9 – Won between 1-2 times (hurdles) before
8/9 – Won last time out
7/9 – Favourites placed in the top 2
6/9 – Irish bred
4/9 – Aged 5 years-old
4/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/9 – Ridden by Harry Cobden
3/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls

SUREWIN BEST BET: QUEENS GAMBLE
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: LARCHMONT LASS

2.45 – Racing TV 100% Profits Back To Racing Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-130) ITV4

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
4/5 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
4/5 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
2/5 – Winning favourites
Trainer Hobbs/While have a 21% strike-rate with their hurdlers at the track
Jockey David Noonan is just 5 from 76 (7%) riding over hurdles at the track
Jockey Paul O’Brien is 0 from 29 riding over hurdles at the track

SUREWIN BEST BET: GAME WINNER
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: BALLYDISCO

 

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