Looking ahead to the weekend, the Winter Millions 3 day Jumps Festival begins and ends at Windsor on Friday and Sunday (I’ll put my views out on those to members in the morning each day). Ascot, Haydock and Taunton are sandwiched in between them on Saturday and there are some races worth looking ahead to at Ascot and Haydock at this stage.
The Grade 1 Clarence House Chase (2m) is the feature at Ascot (3:30), but disappointingly there are only 5 runners at the 5 day stage (final decs Thurs) and the odds on Irish raider Il Etait Temps will be very tough to beat. He beat Jonbon by 9 lengths at Sandown last time and if Willie Mullins sends him over he really should win the £98,000 first prize. Thistle Ask has improved enormously (up 50lb in 5 starts), but he will be stepping out of handicap company and will face by far his stiff task to date.
Ascot’s feature Handicap, a Class 2 £100,000 H’cap Chase (2m3f) at 2:20, has only attracted 11 entries, but it should be a competitive race. Runner up in 2 valuable contests at Cheltenham, Vincenzo (3/1) is a worthy favourite. Course winners Etalon and Scarface (both 5-6/1) are possibly his main threats, Bad (5/1) has a sound chance but he hasn’t won here in 8 outings (placed 5 times, 3 from 3 at Kempton). Despite 12st, last year’s 2nd Hitman (also entered at Windsor on Sunday) can’t be discounted whilst Issam and triple 2m1f course winner Martator each have e/w claims, but Venetia Williams has gone 29 days and 28 runners since her last win. With Tom Symonds it’s 18 runners and 54 days. With his course form, Martator could be worth risking, perhaps.
The Peter Marsh H’cap Chase (3m1f) is the feature at Haydock. This Class 1 contest has attracted 15 entries and the tapes will go up at 2:00. The market leaders Konfusion and Myretown both have speculative entries in the Gold Cup, the first named is a rapid improver this season, the latter won the Ultima H’cap Chase at the festival last season (but fell on sole start this term). If either really has aspirations in the biggest event of the National Hunt season, then they should be able to take a handicap like this comfortably on the way. It’s very hard to look beyond that pair. Other options include Johnnywho (6/1) or possibly the rerouted Mr Vango, though the latter does need further and he might not run if the ground is too dry on Saturday. If you’re looking for e/w value, Resplendent Glory (although also entered at Windsor Sunday so very risky ante post), Grand Jeste, Richmond Lake and Imperial Saint could each be worth considering, but that last trio are all entered in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster a week on Saturday so again, would probably appeal more if and when they are amongst the final declarations for this.
The other race I will look at for Haydock is the Class 3 Stayers H’cap Hurdle (3m) which is due off at 2:35. Lud’or (5/1) and Nab Wood (7/1) are both very prominent in the market, they both have strong claims but like Kap Boy, Phantomofthepoints, Samuel Spade (also in at Ascot) and Spike Jones, they are entered in a more valuable race at Windsor on Sunday. Loverdose and Rubber Ball have both been declared to run at Wincanton on Thursday and therefore look unlikely to take their places in this.
Blue Carpet (5/1) is 1 of 2 entered by Dan Skelton, his other entry Dalston Lad is also entered at Windsor on Friday. There are 20 entries in this at this stage, but it will cut up come Saturday. Both Barrels (8/1) and Heather Honey (8/1) only have this as an entry, like those at the head of the market, should they run here they would have an e/w claim. I’m not sure what to make of Sole Solution (stable form? and he’s been chasing), Solar System hasn’t run for 301 days, Idem was disappointing 0over C&D last time, Icare Allen is hard to predict and may be in the grip of the handicapper, Kyntara (14/1 best) has an e/w chance and might shorten in the betting, but to be at his best he might need a drop of rain.
Overall, with so many having at least a double entry, all these big handicap fields are likely to cut up plenty at the weekend. I’d probably be reluctant to back anything with more than one entry until the final declarations are made.
This ante post preview was written by Philip ‘Snowy’ Griffiths, our resident national hunt expert. The aim of these ante post columns is to educate readers on the most and least likely runners for the races in focus and to highlight any potential early value. This is not a tipping column and doesn’t necessarily reflect where the author’s official wagers are going.
