Some nice jumping cards to look forward to this Saturday from Warwick and Kempton, with nine races being shown LIVE on ITV across the three tracks – weather permitting.
The clear highlights on the day are the Grade 3 Classic Chase at Warwick– a race trainer Paul Nicholls has won three times since 2006, and at Kempton the Coral Lanzarote Hurdle – a prize that the Nicky Henderson yard have landed three times since 2013 – is their showcase event.
As normal, here at SUREWIN we are on-hand with all the key stats for the LIVE ITV races – hopefully they might help point you in the direction of a few winners.
Kempton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
2:05 – Coral “New” Horse Racing Bet Builder Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m ITV4
11/11 – Aged 8 or older
11/11 – Didn’t win last time out
10/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Had run at the track before
9/11 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Placed favourites
8/11 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
8/11 – Carried 11-0 or more
8/11 – Won between 2-4 times (fences) before
7/11 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
6/11 – Unplaced last time out
3/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Ridden by James Bowen (2 of the last 4)
5 of the last 8 winners aged 8
James Bowen has ridden 2 of the last 4 winners
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014 & 2016
SUREWIN BEST BET: THE DOYEN CHIEF
SUREWIN DANGER: WELCOM TO CARTRIES
2:40 – Coral Silviniaco Conti Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4
9/10 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Placed 2nd or 3rd last time out
8/10 – Aged 8 or older
6/10 – Had won at least 4 times over fences
6/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Had won over fences at the track
5 of the last 6 winners aged 8
Harry Cobden has ridden 2 of the last 4 winners
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2022, 2019, 2017 & 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2020, 2021 and 2023
Trainer Alan King won the race in 2015
Trainer Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014
Pic D’Orhy won this race in 2023
Banbridge won this race in 2024
SUREWIN BEST BET: KALIF DU BERLAIS
SUREWIN DANGER: EDWARDSTONE
3:17 – Coral Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4
23/23 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
20/23 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
20/23 – Aged 7 or younger
18/23 – Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
17/23 – Winning distance 3 lengths or less
17/23 – Irish (11) or French (6) bred
16/23 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
16/22 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
16/23 – Had never won a hurdles race over 2m4f or longer before
14/23 – Carried 10-11 or less
13/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/23 – Aged 6 years-old
11/23 – Placed favourites
9/23 – Won last time out
9/23 – Had run at Kempton before (6 won)
5/23 – Winning favourites
4/23 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 12)
3/23 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/23 – Trained by Dan Skelton (last two)
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (42 runnings) 36 winners have been aged 7 or younger
A claiming jockey has won 7 of the last 11 runnings
The winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 16/1
Note: the 2006 running was a dead heat between Rayshan & Buck Whaley and run at Carlisle
SUREWIN BEST BET: LANESBOROUGH
SUREWIN DANGER: IBERICO LORD
Warwick Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
1:15 – William Hill Racing Bet Builder Handicap Chase Cl4 (5yo+ 0-110) 2m4f ITV4
No previous runnings
Trainer Jane Williams has a 33% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Ben Pauling has a 29% strike-rate with her chasers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 26% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Jockey Brendan Powell has a 31% strike-rate riding over fences at the track
SUREWIN BEST BET: PEPE LE MOKO
SUREWIN DANGER: BANK ON FRANK
1.52 – William Hill Price Boosts Every Day Hampton Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m ITV4
16/16 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
16/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
15/16 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
15/16 – Had won between 0-2 times over fences
14/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/16 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
13/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
11/16 – Had won over 3m (or further) chase
11/16 – Won last time out
11/16 – Aged 7 years-old (last 3)
11/16 – Irish bred
10/16 – Returned 9/4 or shorter in the betting
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 4)
5/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Alan King
2/16 – Trained by Dan Skelton (last 2)
SUREWIN BEST BET: WADE OUT
SUREWIN DANGER: HOPLLYGROVE CHA CHA
2:25 – William Hill Racing Each Way Extra Handicap Hurdle Cl4 (4yo+ 0-110) 2m ITV4
Just one last running
Donnacha won the race in 2024
Trainer Joe Tizzard has a 29% SR with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Warren Greatrex is 0-21 with his hurdles at the track
SUREWIN BEST BET: SEA WARRIOR
SUREWIN DANGER: PREMIER
2:55 – William Hill Half A Mill Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m5f ITV
17/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
17/19 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
15/19 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
14/19 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
14/19 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
13/19 – Officially rated between 129-140
13/19 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
13/19 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
13/19 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
12/19 – Won by an Irish bred horse
12/19 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/19 – Favourites placed
9/19 – Returned a double-figure price
8/19 – Had raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
6/19 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
5/19 – Won their last race
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/19 – Trained by Alan King
3/19 – Trained by Emma Lavelle (3 of the last 11)
11 of the last 14 Classic Chase winners aged 9 or younger
Just two winning favourites in the last 19 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 10/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: L’HOMME PRESSE
SUREWIN DANGER: MYRETOWN
3:32 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m 1f ITV4
18/18 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
16/18 – Had won between 1-4 times over hurdles before
15/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
14/18 – Carried 11-0 or less
14/18 – Officially rated between 125-142
14/18 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/18 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
11/18 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
10/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/18 – Placed favourites
6/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/18 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/18 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/18 – Winning favourites
11 of the last 13 winners were aged 8 or younger
4 of the last 10 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
Glimpse Of Gala won the race in 2023
SUREWIN BEST BET: TRANQUIL SEA
SUREWIN DANGER: SPIKE JONES
Wetherby Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV) *Abandoned*
1:25 – William Hill 1461 Chase (Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+) 2m 31/2f ITV4
No previous runnings
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 21% SR with his chasers at the track
Trainer Joel Parkingson and Sue Smith have a 21% SR with their chasers at the track
Trainer Ben Pauling has a 21% SR with his chasers at the track
Trainer Olly Murphy has a 20% SR with his chasers at the track
SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow
