Another massive day of horse racing this Saturday with ‘Trials Day’ at Cheltenham – their last meeting before the Festival in March. Therefore, plenty more clues to be had, including top races like the Cleeve Hurdle and Cotswold Chase – a race only three favourites in the last 22 runnings have won.
The ITV cameras are also heading to Doncaster to take in the best of their action, including the ultra-competitive Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase and the River Don Novices’ Hurdle.
As always, here at SUREWIN we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends – use these stats to help find the best past winning profiles to help whittle down the runners and hopefully pin-point a few winners.
Cheltenham Trials Day Horse Racing Trends (RTV/ITV)
12:05 – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m 4 1/2f RTV
21/21 – Aged 8 or younger
20/21 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (5 winners, La Landiere Cathcart 2003, Close Brothers Novices’ Chase, Mister Whitaker 2018, Simply The Betts 2020, Brown Advisory and Merribelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase, 2023 Stage Star, Turners’ Novices Chase. Jagwar, Plate Handicap Chase)
19/21 – Won between 0-2 races over fences in the UK previously
19/21 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
18/21 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) in the UK previously
17/21 – Finished either 1st or 2nd last time out
17/21 – Rated 128 or higher
16/21 – Priced 13/2 or shorter
14/21 – Irish bred
14/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/21 – Carried 11-2 or more
10/21 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
9/21 – Won last time out
7/21 – Ran at Kempton last time out
6/21 – French bred
4/21 – Won with 11-12 in weight
4/21 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/21 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/21 – Winning favourites (2 in the last 14 runnings, but 2 of the last 3)
2/21 – Trained by Tizzard yard
Trainer Paul Nicholls & jockey Harry Cobden have won 2 of the last 3 runnings
9 of the last 12 winners aged 7 or 8
2025 Winner: JAGWAR (Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero) 4/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: CALIFET EN VOL
SUREWIN DANGER: PUSH THE BUTTON
12:40 – JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f RTV
19/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
18/21 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
17/21 – Placed favourites
16/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/21 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
14/21 – Won last time out
13/21 – Had previously won at least once over hurdles in the UK
13/21 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the market
11/21 – Winning distance – 2 ¼ lengths or less
11/21 – French bred (including 8 of last 10 winners)
11/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
9/21 – Went onto be placed in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (3 winners, Defi Du Seuil 2017, Peace & Co 2015, Katchit 2007)
6/21 – Had raced at Cheltenham previously
4/21 – Trained by Alan King
4/21 – Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1
4/21 – Won by an Irish bred horse
3/21 – Won by a German bred horse
Nicky Henderson has trained 5 of the last 12 winners
4 of the last 8 winners have been owned by JP McManus
2025 Winner: EAST INDIA DOCK (James Owen) 1/2 fav
SUREWIN BEST BET: MAESTRO CONTI
SUREWIN DANGER: MINELLA YOGA
1:15 – Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m 41/2f ITV
19/21 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
18/21 – Rated 130 or higher
17/21 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
17/21 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
17/21 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
16/21 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
16/21 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before (8 won)
14/21 – Aged 8 or older
14/21 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner – Siruh Du Lac)
13/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/21 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
10/21 – Carried 10-7 or less
7/21 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
7/21 – Won last time out
6/21 – Ran at Newbury last time out
5/21 – Winning favourites
3/21 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/21 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/21 – Won by the Hobbs yard
2/21 – Won the by the Paul Nicholls yard (2 of the last 7)
2/21 – Won the by the Venetia Williams yard (2 of the last 12)
2/21 – Won the by the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard (2 of the last 8)
3 of the last 8 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
Last 10 winners aged 8 or younger
Jockey Gavin Sheehan has ridden 2 of the last 11 winners
2025 Winner: MOON D’ ORANGE (John McConnell) 7/2jfav
SUREWIN BEST BET: JAGWAR
SUREWIN DANGER: UNCLE BERT
1:50 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m 5 1/2f ITV
No previous runnings
Trainer Gordon Elliott is just 5-130 (4%) with his chasers at Cheltenham
Trainer Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero have a 29% SR with their chasers at Cheltenham
SUREWIN BEST BET: J ARRIVE DE L’EST
SUREWIN DANGER: ICEO MADRIK
2.25 – Betfair Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV
22/22 – Officially rated 151 or higher
21/22 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (11 had won)
20/22 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
19/21 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
17/22 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
17/22 – Priced 7/1 or less
14/22 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
14/22 – Placed favourites
14/22 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (7) last time
12/22 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
10/22 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
10/22 – Unplaced last time out
10/22 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
8/22 – Won last time out
8/22 – Won by a French-bred horse
7/22 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
3/22 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)
3/22 – Favourites
2/22 – Won by the Henderson yard (2 of the last 6)
2/22 – Won by the Tizzard yard
1/22 – Irish-trained winners (2024)
1/22 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
1/22 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase (Frodon, 2019)
11 of the last 18 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 13/2
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup
Nicky Henderson has won the race 3 times (1980, 2020, 2022)
No back-to-back winners of the race
2025 Winner: L’HOMME PRESSE (Venetia Williams) 4/5 fav
SUREWIN BEST BET: GREY DAWNING
SUREWIN DANGER: L’HOMME PRESSE
3:00 Unibet Hurdle (Reg as the International Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m1f ITV
21/21 – Raced over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
19/21 – Placed in the top 3 in their latest race
18/21 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
18/21 – Won over 2m1f+ (hurdles) previously
18/21 – Won 4 or more times over hurdles previously
16/21 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old or younger
15/21 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle later that season (5 placed)
15/21 – Favourites placed
14/21 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
14/21 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
13/21 – Won their latest race
13/21 – Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
11/21 – Won by a horse aged either 4 or 5 years-old
10/21 – Rated 162 or higher
8/21 – Winning distance: 4+ lengths
6/21 – Won the Greatwood Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
6/21 – Won by a French-bred horse
6/21 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (4 of the last 7)
5/21 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (4 of the last 11)
4/21 – Ridden by jockey Sam Twiston-Davies (4 of the last 11)
4/21 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
3/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 12)
3/21 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
Rooster Booster (2002) the last winner to follow up in the Champion Hurdle (same season)
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 10/3
2025 Winner: CONSTITUTION HILL (Nicky Henderson) 1/12 fav
SUREWIN BEST BET: SIR GINO
SUREWIN DANGER: THE NEW LION
3.35 – Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV
19/20 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
18/20 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
17/20 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
17/20 – Went to run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (5 won)
16/20 – Raced at Cheltenham (hurdles) previously
14/20 – Officially rated 154 or higher
14/20 – Finished either 1st or 2nd in their last race
13/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
13/20 – Favourites placed
13/20 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
12/20 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 4 in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle
9/20 – Won their latest race
9/20 – Favourites that won
7/20 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
6 winners in total won the Stayers’ Hurdle (same season)
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown
2025 Winner: GOWEL ROAD (Nigel Twiston-Davies) 5/2 jfav
SUREWIN BEST BET: IMPOSE TOI
SUREWIN DANGER: DODDIETHEGREAT
4:10 – AIS Novices’ Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f110y ITV
19/19 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
18/19 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
15/19 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
16/19 – Winners that later raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners)
16/19 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
15/19 – Won their latest race
15/19 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
14/19 – Favourites placed
13/19 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
12/19 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
12/19 – Priced 4/1 or shorter
10/19 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
7/19 – Favourites that won
5/19 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
5/19– Raced at Newbury last time out
4/19 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
4/19 – Won by the Alan King stable
3/19 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
2025 Winner: POTTERS CHARM (Nigel Twiston-Davies) 8/15 fav
Note: 2025 Sixmilebridge won (9/1) but was later disqualified for a banned substance
SUREWIN BEST BET: TAURUS BAY
SUREWIN DANGER: ACT OF INNOCENCE
Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
12:55 – River Don Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y ITV
15/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
14/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less
9/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Irish bred
8/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Had raced at Doncaster before
3/16 – Winning favourite
3/16 – Trained By Ben Pauling (3 of the last 10)
2/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Ridden by Nico de Boinville
10 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
2025 Winner: YELLOW CAR (David Killahena & Graeme McPherson) 10/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: KICOUR LA
SUREWIN DANGER: COUNTRY CODE
1:30 – Yorkshire Rose Mares´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m 1/2f ITV
10/10 – Aged between 7-9
10/10 – Favourites placed (top 3)
9/10 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
9/10 – Top 3 finish last time out
8/10 – Returned 5/2 or shorter
7/10 – Winning favourites
7/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Went onto run in the Mares’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) 1 winner – Vroum Vroum Mag (2016)
7/10 – Won 4+ times over hurdles
5/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Irish-trained
2/10 – Trained by Dan Skelton
2/10 – Ridden by Harry Skelton
Trainer Jessie Harrington has won 3 of the last 6
Note: From 2022 the race was run at Ascot
2025 Winner: JETARA (Jessie Harrington) 10/3
SUREWIN BEST BET: THAT’LL DO MOSS
SUREWIN DANGER: LAVIDA ADIVA
2:05 –The Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-155) 3m ITV
19/20 – Had won between 0-3 times over fences before
17/20 – Carried 11-2 or less
16/20 – Officially rated 129 or higher
14/20 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
15/20 – Aged 9 or younger
14/20 – Irish bred
13/20 – Unplaced favourites
13/20 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
12/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/20 – Carried 10-12 or less
11/20 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/20 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/20 – Won last time out
2/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/20 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/20 – Winning favourites (1 in the last 11)
2/20 – Trained by Alan King
6 of the last 19 winners went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)
The last 10 winners returned 9/1 or bigger
Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell
2025 Winner: DOCPICKEDME (Richard Hobson) 9/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: GRAND GESTE
SUREWIN DANGER: DOCPICKEDME
