Another jam-packed Saturday of racing for the ITV horse racing team as they head to Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton to take in eight races across the three venues.
So, to help narrow down the fields, and point you in the direction of a few winners, here at SUREWIN we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – we hope they help!
ASCOT HORSE RACING TRENDS (SkySportsRacing/ITV)
1:50 – Betfair Novices’ Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 2m3 1/2f ITV
10/10 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles
9/10 – Returned 7/1 or less
9/10 – Aged 6 or younger
9/10 – Had between 1-4 hurdles runs
9/10 – Favourites finished in the top 3
8/10 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles
8/10 – Top 3 finish last time out
7/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/10 – Aged 6 years-old
5/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Winning favourite
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow
1:50 – Injured Jockeys Fund Ambassadors Programme Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 3m ITV
23/23 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
20/23 – Had run within the last 7 weeks
18/23 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
18/23 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences previously
18/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/23 – Won last time out
13/23 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/23 – Irish bred
11/23 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (2 winners)
9/23 – Winners that went onto finish 5th or better in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
9/23 – Placed favourites
7/23 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/23 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (4 of the last 7)
3/23 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/23 – Won by the Pipe Stable (2 of the last 11)
3/23 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/23 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/23 – Trained by Rebecca Curtis (2 of last 12)
Just one winning favourite in last 10 (none in last 7)
The last 10 winners aged between 6-8
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow
2:25 – Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (GBB Race) (4yo+) 2m3 1/2f ITV
18/20 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
16/20 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
13/20 – Carried 10-13 or less
13/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/20 – Placed favourites
12/20 – Winning distance – 2 or less
12/20 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
12/20 – Had won over 2m4f or further before
9/20 – Winners that went onto race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
9/20 – Priced 8/1 or bigger
9/20 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/20 – Irish bred
7/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
cot over hurdles before
6/20 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
3/20 – Raced at Sandown last time out
3/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 7)
2/20 – Trained by Dr Richard Newland
2/20 – Trained by Harry Fry (2 of the last 9)
5 of the last 10 winners aged 6
8 of the last 10 winners aged 6-8
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow
3:00 – Betfair Swinley Handicap Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m 80y ITV
15/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Aged 8 or older
13/15 – Finished 5th or better last time out
12/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
9/15 – Had raced at Ascot (fences) before
9/15 – Raced at either Ascot (4) or Cheltenham (5) last time out
8/15 – Aged in double-figures
7/15 – Won just 1 or 2 chase races previously
7/15 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
7/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
5/15 – Winning distance head or shorter
3/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Trained by Venetia Williams (3 of the last 9)
2/15 – Winning Favourites (none in last 10)
8 of the last 13 winners carried 11-0 or more
9 of the last 10 winners aged 8 to 10
Threeunderthrufive won the race in 2024 and 2nd in 2025
SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow
3:35 – Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f110y ITV
22/23 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
22/23– Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
21/23 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
19/23 – Officially rated 157 or higher
18/23 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
18/23 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
17/23 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
15/23 – Favourites placed
15/23 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
13/23 – Winning favourites
11/23 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
11/23 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
9/23 – Won their last race
8/23 – Unplaced in their latest race
7/23 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
6/23 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (2 winners, Cue Card & Riverside Theatre) later that year
5/23– Trained by Paul Nicholls (4 of the last 10) (6 in total)
3/23 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/23 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/23 – Trained by Alan King
14 of the last 19 winners returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
Jockey Harry Cobden has won the race three times (3 of the last 7)
Note: The 2005 & 2006 – Run at Lingfield Park
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings 9/4
SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow
HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)
2:05 – ZYN Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV
21/23 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
18/23 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
17/23 – Had won over at least 3m+ (hurdles) previously
15/23 – Placed favourites
15/23 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
15/23 – Aged 8 or younger
15/23 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
14/23 – Rated 145 or higher
13/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/23 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
11/23 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/23– Had run at Haydock before
9/23 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (no winners)
8/23 – French-bred
4/23 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/23 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/23 – Winning favourites (1 in last 10)
1/23 – Winners that went onto win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival
Trainer Dan Skelton won the race last year
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1
Note: The 2003, 2004, 2005 – Run at Kempton Park
SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow
2:40 – Haydock Park Albert Barlett Presitge Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) CL1 (5yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV
10/10 – Yet to race at Haydock (hurdles)
9/10 – Won 1-2 times over hurdles
9/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Won over at least 2m 3 1/2f
9/10 – Aged 6 or 7
9/10 – First or second last time out
7/10 – Favourites placed
6/10 – Aged 6
6/10 – Won last time out
6/10 – Irish bred
3/10 – Winning favourite
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow
3.15 – William Hill Half A Million Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV
22/23 – UK-based trained winners
21/23 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
20/23– Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
19/23 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
18/23 – Rated 135 or higher
18/23 – Aged 10 or younger
17/23 – Finished in the top three last time out
16/23 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
15/23 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
15/23 – Aged 9 or younger
14/23 – Finished in the top two last time out
13/23 – Carried 11-0 or less
11/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/23 – Unplaced favourites
9/23 – Irish-bred winners
8/23 – Won last time out
8/23 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
6/23 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
4/23 – Won with 11-12 in weight
4/23 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
4/23 – Winning favourites
3/23 – Finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/23 – Trained by Venetia Williams (2 of the last 8)
9 of the last 11 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
5 of the last 11 winners returned 8/1 in the betting
17 of the last 18 winners were aged between 8-11 years-old
No horse has won this race and gone onto win the Aintree Grand National
Red Rum and Party Politics have both races on their CV’s – but in different campaigns
Suny Bay won the ‘so-called’ trial in 1997 and was runner-up at Aintree.
Neptune Collonges finished second in the Haydock Trial in 2012 before winning the Grand National later that season.
Freebooter and Sundew are others to win both races (trial and Aintree) just in different seasons
SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow
WINCANTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (RACINGTV/ITV)
1:35 – BetMGM Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y ITV
22/22 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
21/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
20/22 – Aged 7 or younger
20/22 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
20/22 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
20/22 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
15/22 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/22 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (2 winners Katchit & Golden Ace 2025)
14/22 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
12/22 – Rated 155 or higher
11/22 – Winning favourites
9/22 – Won last time out
8/22– Raced at Sandown last time out
4/22 – Trained by Alan King
3/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
1/22 – Winners that went onto win the Stayers’ Hurdle (Inglis Drever)
Golden Ace (6/5 fav) won this race in 2025
SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow
