Run over 2m the Betfair-sponsored Tingle Creek Chase is staged at Sandown Park racecourse and this year (2017) run on 9th December. The Grade One Chase is always seen as a good guide to the Queen Mother Champion Chase run at the Cheltenham Festival later in the season – with Master Minded (2008), Moscow Flyer (2004), Sprinter Sacre (2012), Sire de Grugy (2013) & Dodging Bullets (2014) the last horses to do the Tingle Creek/Champion Chase double in the same season at the Cheltenham Festival.

The 2019 Tingle Creek Chase was won by the Philip Hobbs-trained Defi Du Seuil – the second win in the race for the trainer after also winning it in 2001 with Flagship Uberalles, while 12 months ago trainer Paul Nicholls landed his eleventh Tingle Creek Chase when the popular grey - Politologue - landed the prize for a second time having also won it in 2017.

Here at SUREWIN we take a look back at recent winners and gives you the key Tingle Creek trends to look out for ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 4th December.

Recent Tingle Creek Winners

2020 - POLITOLOGUE (11/8 fav)
2019 – DEFI DU SEUIL (2/1 fav)
2018 - ALTIOR (8/13 fav)
2017 – POLITOLOGUE (7/2)
2016 – UN DE SCEAUX (5/4 fav)
2015 – SIRE DE GRUGY (10/3)
2014 – DODGING BULLETS (9/1)
2013 – SIRE DE GRUGY (7/4 jfav)
2012 – SPRINTER SACRE (4/11 fav)
2011 – SIZING EUROPE (11/8 fav)
2010 – MASTER MINDED (10/11 fav)
2009 – TWIST MAGIC (9/4)
2008 – MASTER MINDED (4/7 fav)
2007 – TWIST MAGIC (5/1)
2006 – KAUTO STAR (4/9 fav)
2005 – KAUTO STAR (5/2 jfav)
2004 – MOSCOW FLYER (2/1)
2003 – MOSCOW FLYER (6/4 fav)
2002 – CENKOS (6/1)

Tingle Creek Chase Trends

18/19 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
18/19 – Aged 9 or younger
17/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
16/19 – Had won a Grade One chase before
15/19 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s QM Champion Chase
15/19 – Placed favourites
15/19 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
14/19 – French bred
14/19 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
14/19 – Officially rated 165 or higher
14/19 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
12/19 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
12/19 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
12/19 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
12/19 – Won last time out
11/19 – Had won a chase race at Sandown before
10/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (11 wins in total)
6/19 – Went onto win the Champion Chase (Altior, Dodging Bullets, Sire de Grugy, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
1/19 – Went onto win the Gold Cup (Kauto Star) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 5/2

Note: The 2010 renewal was staged at Cheltenham

SUREWIN VERDICT:  The powerful Irish yard of Willie Mullins landed this race in 2016 and he’ll be hoping for more with his super-talented Chacun Pour Soi coming over to run at Sandown for the first time. He’s the clear top-rated in the field (176) and despite losing out in a tight finish (3^rd) in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March, bounced back to winning ways at Punchestown in April. He beat stablemate Allaho that day and had the Skelton-trained Nube Negra well back in third. He’s still lightly-raced (13 runs) for a 9 year-old and having won 7 of his 10 runs over fences then he’s going to be a tough nut to crack. However, those against him might look to the Sandown hill and this being his first run here at the track as negatives, but we know he stays a bit further than this (has won over 2m 1 1/2f), so he should be fine here. For me, the quicker ground might be more of a worry, as unless there is a lot of rain between now and Saturday this is likely to be the quickest ground he’s uncounted - when he lost in the Champion Chase it was good-to-soft ground. This may also play into the hands of NUBE NEGRA, who will be fine if conditions remain as they are and he looked super-impressive when winning the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham last time, beating last year’s winner of this race - Politologue - by 6 lengths. He’s a strong traveller that also finished just ahead of Chacun Pour Soi in the Champion Chase last season, so we know he’s got the beating of the Mullins horse on his best form. At just 7 years-old, there’s also every chance he’s not finished improving over fences and can also be expected to have improved for that last run as it came off a break - he just edges it for me and looks the better value in the betting.  Of the rest, the Paul Nicholls yard have a top record in this race - winning it 11 times in total and three times since 2014 - he runs both Hitman and Greaneteen. The former returned with a fair second in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter last month and at 5 years-old still has a lot of time on his side. But he’s rated 22lbs inferior to Chacun Pour Soi and 14lbs behind Nube Negra, so does have a bit to find. GREANETEEN looks the better of the Nicholls runners. He’s young at 7 too, and clearly needed the return run at Exeter last time out when a well-beaten 4^th in the already mentioned Haldon Gold Cup. He won the Celebration Chase here in April - beating Altior that day - and was also runner-up in this race 12 months ago. The track will suit, and he rates the main danger to the selection. The Henry De Bromhead-trained Captain Guinness, who was third in last season’s Arkle, also makes the trip over and is certainly no back number. He returned last month with a solid Grade Three win at Naas and seems to be going the right way over fences. But this will be a big leap up in grade so more improvement will be needed.