It's the last Saturday action before Christmas Day, but with a bumper day ahead on Boxing Day (we'll be covering that too) then there's plenty to look forward to over the festive period - with the action coming from Ascot and Haydock. 

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at SUREWIN with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (Sky Sports Racing/ITV)

1.50 – Howden Graduation Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4

9/9 – Aged 7 or younger
9/9 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/9 – Irish/French bred winners
8/9 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/9 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/9 – Won between 1-2 times over fences
7/9 – Aged 6 or younger
7/9 - Priced 5/4 or shorter
5/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/9 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/9 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob

SUREWIN BEST BET: BLACK GERRY
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: HARPER'S BROOK

2.25 – Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f ITV4

20/21 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
20/21 – Winners that went onto compete in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) (6 won, 4 runners-up)
18/21– Placed in the top three in their last race
17/21 – Favourites placed
16/21 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
16/21 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles previously
16/21 – Won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
13/21 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
13/21 – Raced at Newbury last time out
12/21 – French-bred horse
10/21 – Won their last race
10/21 – Favourites that won
7/21 – Won by a past winner
3/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/21 – Trained by Emma Lavelle
3/21 – Ridden by jockey Aidan Coleman
Champ (4/1) won the race in 2021
Paisley Park won the race in 2018, 2020 & 2022
The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 7/1

Note:
2022 running – Kempton
2009 and 2010 runnings - Newbury
2005 running - Chepstow
2004 running -Windsor

SUREWIN BEST BET: PAISLEY PARK
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: CHAMP

3.00 – Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV4

16/17 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
11/17 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
10/17 – Aged either 7 or 8 years-old
10/17 – Raced at Ascot previously
8/17 – Won by a French bred horse
8/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
9/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/17 – Favourites placed
7/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/17 – Won at least 5 times over fences before
6/17 – Aged 7 years-old
5/17 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Ascot (2) last time out
3/17 – Favourites (1 joint)
2/17 – Trained by Henry Daly
2/17 – Trained by Anthony Honeyball (2 of the last 6)
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 5 runnings)
7 of the last 9 winners carried 10-10 or more
6 of the last 9 winners carried 11-3 or more

Note: The 2004 renewal was staged at Windsor

SUREWIN BEST BET: BLACKJACK MAGIC
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: GIT MAKER

3.35 – Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m ITV4

19/19 – Had won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
18/19 – Aged between 4-7 years-old
18/19 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
16/19 – Had raced within the last 2 months
13/19 – Carried 10-10 or more
10/18 – Officially rated between 127 and 136
10/19 – Priced 12/1 or bigger in the betting
10/19 – Unplaced favourites
8/19 – Won last time out
7/19 – Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
7/19 – Irish bred
6/19 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/19 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/19 – Winning favourites

SUREWIN BEST BET: IBERICO LORD
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: ALTOBELLI

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.30 – Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase Cl2 3m 1 1/2f ITV4

15/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Failed to win their last race
12/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
11/15 – Won over at least 3m before (hurdles or fences)
10/15 – Had raced at Haydock previously (hurdles or fences)
9/15 – Won between 2-3 times over fences previously
9/15 – Favourites placed
5/15 – French bred
3/15 – Ridden by jockey Tom O’Brien
3/15 – Went onto run in that season’s Aintree Grand National (all unplaced)
3/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/15 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
8 of the last 14 winners carried 11-0 or more
Enqarde (8/1) won the race in 2021

SUREWIN BEST BET: ENQARDE
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: ELEANOR BOB

2.05 – Betfred Nifty Fifty Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Qualifier) Cl3 (3yo+ 0-135) 1m 7 1/2f ITV4

Just 3 previous runnings
All 3 winners ridden by a claimer
All 3 winners returned 11/2 or shorter
2 of the 3 winners carried 11-4 or more
2 of the 3 winner aged 8 years-old
1/3 – Winning favourites
Venetia Williams, Donald McCain and James Moffatt have trained the winners

SUREWIN BEST BET: GOOBINATOR
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: RISK D'ARGENT