This Saturday the ITV cameras head to Wincanton with the Badger Beer Handicap Chase, their feature, plus they are also at Doncaster for the ultra-competitive November Handicap and also take in two Aintree contests – as always, here at SUREWIN we've got all the trends and stats for the LIVE races….. 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/SkyRacing)

1:20 – Livescore Bet Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

18/20 – Had at least 6 previous runs that season
18/20 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
18/20 – Had won over 6f before
17/20 – Won from stall 12 or lower
16/20 – Rated 99 or higher
16/20 – Aged 4 or older
13/20 – Had won at least 5 times before in their career
10/20 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
10/20 – Had won at Doncaster before
5/20 – Ran at York (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
5/20 – Won last time out
4/20 – Winning favourites (4 of last 11)
3/20 – Winning mare/filly
3/20 – Trained by Richard Hannon
9 of the last 10 winners carried 9-0 or more
Trainer Andrew Balding has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
The last 10 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting

SUREWIN BEST BET: ROOM SERVICE
SUREWIN DANGER: RUSSET GOLD

3:10 – Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Irish EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

17/19 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
16/19 – Had 3 or more runs that season
15/19 – Had won at least twice before
13/19 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
12/19 – Unplaced last time out
11/19 – Returned 8/1 or bigger in the betting
11/19 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
10/19 – Had won over 1m2f before
10/19 – Ran at either Lingfield (3), Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (4) last time out
7/19 – Won by an Irish-bred filly
4/19 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of last 4)
3/19 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/19 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/19 – Won last time out
2/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 11)
2/19 - Ridden by David Probert
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: DANIELLE
SUREWIN DANGER: ALBANY

3.45 – Virgin Bet November Handicap Cl2 1m4f ITV

17/20 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
17/20 – Winners that came from draw 9 or higher
16/20 – Favourites that were unplaced
16/20 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
14/20 – Had raced at least 5 times that season
14/20 – Placed last time out
14/20 – Won carrying 9-0 or less in weight
13/20 – Had raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
12/20 – Had won over 1m4f before
12/20 – Won by a horse aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/20 – Won last time out
3/20 -Trained by John Gosden (won it 6 times in all)
2/20 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 11/1
Just 2 winning favourites since 1995

Note: The 2023 November Handicap was run on the AW at Newcastle

SUREWIN BEST BET: LORD MELBOURNE
SUREWIN DANGER: WAXING GIBBOUS

Wincanton Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1:09 – BetMGM Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase Cl3 (4yo+ 0-125) 2m4f ITV

8/8 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
7/8 – Ridden by a claiming conditional jockey
7/8 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/8 – French or Irish bred
7/8 – Favourites placed in the top two
7/8 – Returned 5/1 or shorter
7/8 – Had won over 2m4f (fences)
7/8 – Carried 11-2 or more
6/8 – Didn’t win last time out
6/8 – Rated between 120-127
6/8 – Carried 11-4 or more
5/8 – Had run at Wincanton before
4/8 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/8 – Winning favourites

SUREWIN BEST BET: TEDLEY
SUREWIN DANGER: KILLER KANE

1:45 – BetMGM Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m 5 ½f ITV

16/17 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Didn’t win last time out
15/17 – Aged 7 or younger
13/17 – Had won over at least 2m4f before (hurdles)
13/17 – Had won at least twice before (hurdles)
12/17 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
11/17 – Rated between 119-129
10/17 – Finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out
9/17 – Aged 6 years-old
8/17 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
8/17 – Irish bred
7/17 – Had run at the track before
5/17 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 13)
2/17 – Trained by Harry Fry (2 of the last 11)
2/17 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 3)
2/17 – Ridden by Tom Cannon (2 of the last 3)
7 of the last 10 winners aged 6 or 7

SUREWIN BEST BET: GOOD LUCK CHARM
SUREWIN DANGER: MERMAIDS CAVE

2:23 – Boodles Rising Stars Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

16/17 – Had won no more than twice over fences
16/17 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Irish (9) or French (5) bred
13/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/17 – Had won over 2m3f or further (Chase)
12/17 – Favourites placed
11/17 – Aged 6 or younger
9/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
12 of the last 15 winners were aged between 5-7

SUREWIN BEST BET: INSURRECTION
SUREWIN DANGER: HANDSTANDS

2:55 - BetMGM Elite Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

18/20 – Aged 7 or younger
18/20 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
17/20 – Came from the top three in the betting
15/20 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
14/20 – Won between 2-5 times before (hurdles)
12/20 – Rated 150 or lower
10/20 – Unplaced last time out
9/20 – Having first run of the season
8/20 – Won last time out
6/20 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob (3 of the last 5)
6/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (last 2)
5/20 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/20 - Trained by Alan King (3 of the last 8)
2/20 – Trained by John Quinn
Harry Cobden has ridden the last two winners
Rubaud (1/2 fav) won the race in 2023

SUREWIN BEST BET: RUBAUD
SUREWIN DANGER: APSIRE TOWER

3:30 – 63rd Badger Beer Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV

20/21 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
19/21 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
18/21 – Won a 3m or further chase race previously
17/21 – Won by a horse aged between 7 and 9 years-old
17/21 – Placed in the top four in their last race
17/21 – Won at least two chase races previously
16/21 – Raced at the course previously (over fences)
15/21 – Won between 2 and 5 times over fences before
15/21 – Favourites placed
12/21 – Irish-bred horse
12/21 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
11/21 – Raced already that season
11/21 – Raced at either Sandown (4), Wincanton (3) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
9/21 – Priced at double-figures
9/21 – Won their latest race
9/21 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
8/21 – Favourites that won (1 joint, 1 Co)
8/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/21 – Ridden by a claiming conditional jockey (including 6 of the last 12 years)
4/21 – Won by the Pipe stable
Blackjack Magic won the race in 2023

SUREWIN BEST BET: FORWARD PLAN
SUREWIN DANGER: THE BIG BREAKAWAY

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1:30– Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV

12/12 – Didn’t win last time out
10/12 – Irish (7) or French (3) bred winners
10/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
9/12 – Unplaced last time out
9/12 – Had won at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
8/12 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
8/12 – Placed favourites
8/12 – Had run at Aintree before (1 winner)
4/12 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
4/12 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Charlie Longsdon

SUREWIN BEST BET: MAGICAL KING
SUREWIN DANGER: BOLD ENDEAVOUR

2:05 – Boylesports Choose Wisely Handicap Chase Cl3 (4yo+ 0-130) 2m ITV

9/10 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
9/10 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
8/10 – Aged between 6-8
7/10 – Aged 7 or 8
4/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Ridden by Jonathan Burke
2/10 – Trained by Tom George
2/10 – Trained by Henry Oliver
The winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: COASTGUARD STATION
SUREWIN DANGER: HUNTER LEGEND

2:40 – Boylesports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV

17/19 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
17/19 – Rated 124 or more
16/19 – Aged 8 or older
15/19 – Had won (chase) over at least 2m4f before
13/19 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/19 – Had run at Aintree before (6 over the GN style fences)
12/19 – Carried 10-12 or more
10/19 – Irish bred
9/19 – Returned a double-figure price
9/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
5/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National
2/19 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
2/19 – Won last time out
14 of the last 18 winners were aged 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 11 runnings
Percussion was runner up in this in 2023

SUREWIN BEST BET: FRERO BANBOU
SUREWIN DANGER: GABORIOT