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Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 7th August 2021

Sunday, August 1, 2021

More LIVE ITV action this Saturday as the cameras head to Ascot, Haydock and Newmarket to take in nine races across the three venues.

We’ve six competitive handicaps at Ascot for their Shergar Cup day, while at Haydock the Group Three Lancaster Stakes is their feature. Then we’ve also one LIVE race at Newmarket’s July course – the Group Three Sweet Solera Stakes.

As always, here at SUREWIN, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered with key trends and stats – use these to narrow down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ ITV4)

 

12:50 - Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Dash (Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV4

12/12 – Failed to win their last race
11/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/12 – Raced at Ascot previously
11/12 – Carried 9-3 or more weight
11/12 – Had 4 or more runs that season
11/12 – Priced 6/1 or shorter in the betting market
8/12 – Won at least 3 times in their career
8/12 – Favourites  placed
7/12 – Had won over 5f previously
5/12 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/12 – Favourites (1 joint)
5/12 – Winning distance – 1 or more lengths
3/12 – Trained by Robert Cowell (including 2 of the last 6 runnings)
3/12 – Won by the Andrew Balding yard
Stone Of Destiny (11/2) won the race in 2019

SUREWIN VERDICT: We didn’t have this meeting 12 months ago, but we’ve still got the last two winners of this race in attendance again, so it might just be worth sticking with these past winners. STONE OF DESTINY took the honours in 2019 by a nose and despite being rated 6lbs higher this time has progressed since. This Andrew Balding runner has been running well in defeat at Group 1,2 and 3 level this season so this drop back into a handicap will also be much more to his liking. TIS MARVELLOUS is the other recent winner (2018) and he’s only rated 2lbs higher this time. This Clive Cox-trained 7 year-old rarely runs a bad race and has returned this season with decent efforts at here at Ascot (3rd and 4th). His overall form at the Berkshire track reads well too - 4-6-4-1-2-1-4-4-4-3. Of the rest, Tone The Barone is another CD winner in the field to respect, while with 4 and 5 year-olds winning 11 of the last 12 runnings then, King Of Stars, Desert Safari, Aplomb, Magical Spirit, Count D’orsay and the already mentioned Tone The Barone tick this age trend.    

 

1.25 - Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers (Handicap) Cl2 2m ITV4

15/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Carried 8-13 or more
13/16 – Rated between 86-94
13/16 – Had raced at the track before
12/16 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
12/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/16 – Had won between 2-5 times before (flat)
11/16 – Favourites placed in the top 4
10/16 – Ran at either Ascot (5) or Goodwood (5) last time out
10/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/16 – Trained by Ian Williams
1/16 – Won last time out
Eddystone Rock (13/2) won the race in 2019
No winner from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
3 of the last 11 winners came from stall 9
Horses from stall 9 placed in the top three in 6 of the last 13 runnings

SUREWIN VERDICT: One of just two past CD winners in the field - Cleonte - won this race in 2018 but has been well below that level of late so has a bit to prove, despite being rated 5lbs lower now. The other proven CD winner at the track is Island Brave and a case can certainly be made for this Heather Main-trained 7 year-old. Indigo Times wasn’t beaten far (4 lengths) at Newcastle last time out and has won 4 of his last 6 races, but his better form has been on the AW tracks so that would be the worry with him (yet to win on the grass). Just Hubert has ability, but after refusing to race at Goodwood last time comes with risks. Reshoun won well at the Royal Meeting here in June over 2m4f so we know he stays further and is only 4lbs higher. The eye will be drawn to Call My Bluff too, having won his last two. But is up another 3lbs here and into a better race, so has more on his plate for me. So, a chance is taken on the Jane Chapple-Hyam runner - UBER COOL - and also one of the four Ian Williams entries INDIANAPOLIS (e/w). The former returned from a monster lay-off (959 days) to win easily at Chester back in May and even though the dreaded ‘bounce factor’ is in play, the fact his connections have kept him off since could be a plus on that score. He clearly goes well fresh so the 70 day break isn’t a worry. Then, Indianapolis has looked a bit one-paced in his races so this trip at this stiffer track should suit. He’s a pound lower than last time when staying on to be 5th at Newbury and prior to that ran well here at Ascot (4th, beaten just 2 lengths), plus is a past course winner here too - winning on this card back in 2019.  

 

2.00 - Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge (Handicap) Cl3 1m4f ITV4

16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
14/16 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
14/16 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
14/16 – Won over 1m3f (or further) previously
13/16 – Won between 1-4 times previously
13/17 – Officially rated between 87-94
10/16 – Aged 4 years-old
9/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
9/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/16 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the betting market
6/16 – Had run at Ascot previously
5/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Won by the Paul Cole yard
2/16 – Favourites that won
Indianapolis (7/1) won the race in 2019
One winner from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
3 of the last 14 winners came from stall 5
9 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 5-8 (inc)

SUREWIN VERDICT: Just one winner from stall one in the last 14 runnings so the William Knight-trained Spanish Kiss will be trying to overcome that. 9 of the last 14 winners actually came between stalls 5-8, so this is better news for the likes of HMS President, Graphite, Mancini and Restorer. Plantadream is the only course winner in the field so that must count for something, while Torcello is the only last time out scorer in the line-up too. Restorer, Graphite, Sam Cooke and C’est No Mour head here off the back of solid runs last time, but the two I like here are GROUP ONE POWER and HMS PRESIDENT. The former was actually a close third in a race at Chester last time out - a contest Sam Cooke was fourth in. Therefore, there shouldn’t be a lot between the pair again here. Group One Power is also building up a consistent profile, having finished in the top three in all his last 5 races. The other pick - HMS President was third at Windsor at the end of June but has been freshened up with a small break since. The first-time cheekpieces catch the eye too and these could easily eke out a bit more improvement from this 4 year-old.

 

2.35 - Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

16/16 – Won over at least a mile before
15/16 – Failed to win last time out
15/16 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
15/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/16 – Rated between 92-100
15/16 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
14/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/16 – Won between 2-4 times before
11/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/16 – Had run at Ascot before
4/16 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Andrew Balding
Power Of Darkness (11/4 fav) won the race in 2019
3 of the last 14 winners came from stall 1
3 of the last 5 winners came from stall 12
12 or the last 15 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting

SUREWIN VERDICT: Another race with a past winner running again as the 2019 hero - Power Of Darkness - lines up here. He’s one of just two CD winners in the field too - the other being the 2017 winner of this race - Raising Sands. Power Of Darkness is also rated 4lbs lower than when winning this a few years ago but hasn’t looked an easy horse to train with only six races since and no wins. 15 of the last 16 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old, so of the 12 runners these tick this stat - Dance Fever, Dashing Roger, Ouzo, Revich, Bear Force One and Lord Rapscallion. Of that bunch, it’s hard to knock the chances of Dance Fever, who was a close second here last month. But is up another 4lbs for that and I’m not sure this step up from 7f to a mile is in his favour - all wins have been over 6f or 7f. The two of interest here are VINTAGER and BEAR FORCE ONE (e/w). The former has won 5 of his 17 turf starts and was a close third at Ayr over a mile last time. He’s down a pound for that run and before going to the Crisford yard was a Godolphin horse that was contesting Group races only a few years ago. Bear Force One returned to the track just last weekend and ran a fair race (4th) over 1m2f at Doncaster. The drop back to 1m will suit and after a 3 month break can also be expected to have come on a lot for that run.

 

3.10 - Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Classic (Handicap) (Bobis Race) Cl3 1m4f – ITV4

11/11 – Raced 3 or more times that season
9/11 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
9/11 – Won over 1m2f or further previously
9/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
8/11 – Officially rated between 84-90
5/11 – Favourites placed
4/11 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/11 – Favourites that won
3/11 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/11 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Sapa Inca (4/1 fav) won the race in 2019
7 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 5, 7 or 8

SUREWIN VERDICT: Trainer Mark Johnston has won this race in 2019 and 2013, so with three entries again this year is one to respect - State Of Bliss, Annandale and Harlem Soul. With 7 of the last 11 winners coming from stalls 5, 7 or 8 this might be another trend to look for - Harlem Soul, Possible Man and State Of Bliss fit the bill here. However, the one that stands out here for me is the Roger Charlton runner - BARN OWL. This 3 year-old was a nice winner at Ripon in June and wasn’t disgraced when staying on to be second at Sandown last time over 1m2f. The return to a longer trip will help and he’s not been raised by the handicapper for that last run either. Contact, Skycutter and Star Caliber have chances too, but the other to note is the Richard Fahey-trained PRISON BREAK (e/w). This 3 year-old was an easy winner at Doncaster last time out - eased down by 2 lengths. Yes, he’s up 5lbs here and into a much better race but looks the sort to have more to come with just 9 career outings and gets in here with only 8-11 to carry.  

 

3.45 - Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint (Handicap) (Bobis Race) Cl2 6f ITV4

16/16 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
14/16 – Ran within the last 4-5 weeks
14/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting market
14/16 – Won over 6f previously
14/16 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
12/16 – Won between 2-3 times previously
11/16 – Officially rated between 86-95
11/16 – Came from the top three in the betting market
11/16 – Priced 6/1 or shorter in the betting market
11/16 – Favourites placed
7/16 – Had run at Ascot previously
4/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Winning Favourites
3/16 – Won by the Roger Charlton yard
Harmony Spirit (7/4 fav) won the race in 2019
6 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 5-8 (inc)

SUREWIN VERDICT: The Ed Walker yard have a cracking 24% record with their 3 year-olds at the track, so a chance is taken on their two runners TEMPLE BRUER (e/w) and POPMASTER running well here. The former will be their second string - however, returned to form last time to run a close second at Ffos Las. Up just a pound for that but gets into this better race with only 8-9 in weight to carry. In contrast, Popmaster has a big 9-10 to carry, but looks an improving sprinter. He won again last time at Doncaster in a fair handicap and a 5lb rise for that looks fair. Any rain would be fine too, while his form over this 6f trip reads well 1-1-3-2-2-3-1. He’s also only had eight career runs so there is every chance we’ve not seen the best of him yet too. With 6 of the last 13 winners coming from stalls 5-8, this is a small plus for Cairn Gorm, Shark Two One, Dream Composer and Royal Scimitar. Of those four, the James Evans-trained DREAM COMPOSER is another to have onside. He was a fast-finishing fourth at the Royal Meeting here in June over 5f so this step up to 6f looks a good move. Prior to that run he’d won well at Carlisle and Kempton (6f). Of the rest, the consistent Crazy Luck and Royal Scimitar have to be considered if running to the level they produced last time.  

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ ITV4)

 

2:25 – MansionBet Bet £10 Get £20 Handicap (London Mile Series Qualifier) Cl3 (3yo+ 0-95) 1m ITV4

10/10 - Carried 9-0 or more
10/10 - Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 - Aged 3 or 4 years old
9/10 - Won between 1-3 times before
9/10 - Didn’t win last time out
8/10 - Drawn in stalls 6 or lower
8/10 - Raced in the last 6 weeks
8/10 - Previous winners over 1m
8/10 - Carried between 9-0 and 9-6 in weight
7/10 - Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/10 - Rated between 81 and 89 (inc)
7/10 - Aged 4 years-old
7/10 - Drawn between stalls 3-6 (inc)
6/10 - Irish bred
3/10 - Had run at the track before
2/10 - Winning favourites
2/10 - Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
Dubai Mirage (3/1) won the race in 2020 

 

SUREWIN VERDICT: The Saeed Bin Suroor yard won this race in 2020 and they look to have a fair chance of adding to that with Dubai Mirage, who also won this race 12 months ago. This 4 year-old is a proven CD winner here too and looks to be running into form after two improved runs at Ascot and York last time, but is rated 10lbs higher than when landing this prize 12 months ago. The ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin also have the Gosden-trained Royal Mews in the race, but he was beaten a heavy odds-on last time at Lingfield, which is a worry.  That said, the drop back to 1m will suit and with only three career runs can be forgiven a poor outing. Fantastic Fox is respected too, but the call here is THIBAAN. This Stoute runner is another CD winner here when landing a similar race here in June. He’s been kept off since so heads here fresh and is only 3lbs higher for that success. The only niggle would be if there’s significant rain as all his runs to date have been on good or quicker surfaces.  

 

4:10 – MansionBet Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

 

18/18 – Aged 5 or younger
16/18 – Officially rated 105 or higher
15/18 – Aged either 3 or 5 years-old
15/18 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or more
14/18 – Yet to run at Haydock
14/18 – Favourites placed
14/18 – Won over 1m2f or further
14/18 – Run 3 or more times that season
13/18 – Won a Listed or better class race before
13/18 – Won 3 or more times during their career
12/18 – Officially rated between 105 and 110
12/18 – Raced at either Newbury, York or Sandown last time out
11/18 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/18 – Finished unplaced in their last race
5/18 – Favourites that won
3/18 – Won by the Mark Johnston yard
2/18 – Won by Sir Michael Stoute yard
Extra Elusive (11/2) won the race in 2020

SUREWIN VERDICT: The popular ‘old boy’ - Euchen Glen - ran another stormer last weekend to be a close second in the G3 Glorious Stakes at Goodwood. He’s a proven course winner here and being the joint top-rated in the race can go well again. But he’s also got to give 3lbs away to the Godolphin runner - REAL WORLD - and that might be the difference. This 4 year-old has also won his last two in good fashion, including a Listed event at Newbury last time. This will require more now upped into a G3, but prior to that last run was an easy winner of the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot, while Marco Ghiani, who has ridden him that last twice, seems to get the right tune out of him. Foxes Tales, Fancy Man and Stormy Antarctic are others to respect, but it’s hard to ignore last year’s winner of the race - EXTRA ELUSIVE (e/w) - too. Ridden by Hollie Doyle he does have 10 lengths to find with Euchen Glen based on their run last time at Sandown, but took a bit of a hold that day and is better than that showing. It’s interesting that connections have given him a break since with this race in mind and would be no shock to see him bounce back.

 

 

Newmarket (July) Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ ITV4)

 

2:50 - Sweet Solera Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV4

 

17/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
16/18 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
15/18 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting market
15/18 – Won just once previously
14/18 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
14/18 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
12/18 – Had won over only 6f previously
11/18 – Favourites placed
10/18 – Raced at Newmarket (July) previously
10/18 – Raced at Newmarket (6) or Sandown (4) last time out
9/18 – Won their last race
8/18 – Yet to win over 7f
8/18 –  Favourites that won
7/18 – Had just one previous run
5/18 – Won by Godolphin
3/18 – Trained by the Hills stable
3 winners from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings
Trainer Mark Johnston has won 3 of the last 7 runnings
Trainer Richard Hannon has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
5 of the last 14 horses from stall 7 finished 1st (3) or 2nd (2)

SUREWIN VERDICT: Between them, trainers Mark Johnston and Richard Hannon have won 5 of the last 7 runnings of this race. Johnston runs CD winner, VALUE THEORY, while Hannon also has a CD winner in Ardbraccan. The former was a tidy (2 1/2 length) winner here on only her second start last month and should have more to come. This is a big step up in grade, but connections must feel she’s going the right way to target a race they love to win - the Johnston camp also have a useful 24% record with their 2 year-olds here at the track. Andrew Balding (26%) and Karl Burke (23%) are other yards with decent records here with their juveniles - they run Majestic Glory and Nurseclaire. But the other yard with a cracking 2 year-old strike-rate here is Charlie Appleby (32%). They run Wild Beauty, who kept on well to be second in the Listed Star Stakes at Sandown last time out. That came on quicker ground, but should the track get any significant rain that would help his cause a lot. All his better efforts have been with some degree of ‘soft’ in the going. Of the rest, Sunstrike and Shouldavbeenmore are others that have set a fair standard from their opening runs and should go well also.

 

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