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Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 20th Nov 2021

Thursday, November 18, 2021

More excellent jumping action at Ascot and Haydock this Saturday with the ITV cameras heading to both tracks. The Betfair Chase is the highlight from Haydock, while the main event at Ascot is the Christy 1965 Chase – As always, here at SUREWIN, we are on hand with all the trends and stats…..

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

 

2.05 – Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f8y ITV

17/18 – Aged 8 or younger
15/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
14/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/18 – Favourites placed
13/18 – Had won over this trip (fences) 2m5f or further before
12/18 – Won by a French-bred horse
12/18 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/18 – Ran at Aintree (4) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
11/18 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
10/18 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/18 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
9/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
4/18 – Aged 5 years-old
3/18 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/18 – Won by trainer Alan King
2/18 – Won by trainer Philip Hobbs
2/18 – Went onto win at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Albertas Run & Vautour, RyanAir Chase 2009 & 2016)
Imperial Aura won the race in 2020
Cyrname won the race in 2019
Politologue won the race in 2018

Note: The 2002 running was at Wincanton and the 2004 renewal at Windsor

SUREWIN VERDICT: Plenty of familiar names on show here, including Defi Du Seuil, who is on yet another recovery mission after flopping in his last three races. On a plus, he’s been here before as after winning the Triumph Hurdle in 2016 then reinvented himself to win the 2019 JLT Novices’ Chase - he’s back after a wind op and can you believe he’s still only 8 years-old. I’d personally like to see how he returns though. Lost In Translation is another horse that’s not quite gone onto fulfil his potential and had his third wind op over the summer. Master Tommytucker will be fitter for a return run (5th) at Wetherby last month, but he’s not always the best jumper. Bennys King was pulled up here last time out so needs a better run this time, but also saw the back of DASHEL DRASHER a few times last season and I think it will be more of the same. This improving 8 year-old has won his last three races - the last of those was a 2 length beating of Master Tommytucker in the Grade One Ascot Chase back in Feb. In fact, he’s now 4-from-4 here at Ascot and at the age of 8 he’s probably not quite peaked yet either. The danger can come from PISTOL WHIPPED (e/w), from the Nicky Henderson yard. He’s won three of his 9 chase starts, including 2 of this last 3. Does return from a break but has won off a lay-off in the past, while Nico De Boinville an obvious plus in the saddle.  

 

 2.40 - Coral Hurdle (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV

19/19 – Priced 7/2 or less
17/19 – Won over at least 2m 1/2f (hurdles) previously
16/19 – Won a Grade 2 (or better) hurdle race previously
15/19 – Won by and Irish (12) or French (3) bred horse
14/19 – Favourites placed
12/19 – Won their latest race
12/19 – Won between 3-5 times over hurdles previously
12/19 – Had their last race 3 months or longer ago
11/19 – Won by a horse aged 7 or older
11/19 – Won a Grade 1 hurdle race previously
10/19 – Favourites that won (2 joint)
6/19 – Won a hurdles race at Ascot previously
6/19 – Went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle after winning this (1 winner)
5/19 – Went onto race in the Champion Hurdle that same season (4 of 5 finished 4th or better, Faugheen won both renewals in 2014-15
4/19 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/19 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/19 - Trained by Harry Fry (2 of the last 3)
2/19 – Won by the Willie Mullins stable
4 of the last 15 winners were Irish-trained
Song For Someone won the race in 2020
If The Cap Fits won the race in 2018 & 2019
Note: the 2004 & 2005 renewals were at Windsor

SUREWIN VERDICT: Just five runners here but another interesting renewal. Guard Your Dreams and Molly Ollys Wishes have both had the benefit of recent runs and both winning runs too. Guard Your Dreams was a nice winner at Cheltenham, while Mollys Ollys Wishes bolted up at Wetherby. The useful flat stayer, BUZZ, is back over hurdles here and should go well too. He was fifth in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury back in Feb and ran a close second in the Aintree Hurdle in April. He’s since won the Cesarewitch Handicap at HQ on the flat and getting a handy 6lbs from Goshen and last year’s winner Song For Someone, could be the difference. Goshen needs little introduction - classy on his day, but comes with his problems and risks. Sone For Someone is more consistent and took this prize 12 months ago in good fashion. He’s back from a wind op over the summer too, has gone well fresh before and is the only CD winner in the field. A fascinating affair, but I’ll also have the Skelton mare - MOLLY OLLYS WISHES (e/w) - onside too. She won well last time and despite this being harder gets a handy 9lbs from the top two on the card and 3lbs from the others.

 

3.15 – Gerard Bertrand Hurst Handicap Chase Cl2 2m192y ITV

14/15 – Aged between 6 and 9 years-old
14/15 – Had won over fences over this trip (or further) before
13/15 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/15 – Carried 11-0 or more
10/15 – Rated 142 or higher
9/15 – Had raced at Ascot before
8/15 – Ran at either Ascot (4) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
8/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Placed horses from the Paul Nicholls yard
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Aged 6 years-old
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Trained by Gary Moore
First Flow won the race in 2020
Capeland won the race in 2019
Caid du Lin won the race in 2018

SUREWIN VERDICT: Several proven course winners on show here - Amoola Gold, Diego Du Charmil, Sully D’Oc AA and Dolos - all four would have a squeak. Monsieur Lecoq was a close second to Amoola Gold here last time out too and there shouldn’t be much between the two again, but the two main players here look to be BEFORE MIDNIGHT and Sky Pirate. The pair were separated by 6 lengths at Cheltenham last time out, with Before Midnight coming out on top. There is an 8lb pull this time for the runner-up - Sky Pirate - but the manner of victory suggests this Sam Thomas runner can uphold that form. That was also his first run since April, so should have more improvement to come. Of the rest, I’ll take the Jane Williams runner, that I’ve already mentioned, MONSIEUR LECOQ (e/w), to also run well - he’s yet to finish out of the top two from three runs at Ascot.

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.50 - Double Daily Rewards With Betfair Graduation Chase Cl2 (4 yo+) 2m 5 1/2f ITV

10/10 – 0-2 wins over fences
9/10 – Returned 7/2 or shorter
9/10 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
8/10 – Placed in the top 2 last time out
8/10 – Rated between 144-148
7/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/10 – 0-2 runs over fences before
5/10 – Won last time out
5/10 - Winning favourites
3/10 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/10 – Ridden by Harry Cobden
Master Tommytucker won the race in 2020

SUREWIN VERDICT: Just the four runners here, but a nice little race. You’d feel the Ann Hamilton runner - Pay The Piper - despite running well recently, might just have a bit to find. But he is improving all the time and ran the useful Fiddlerontheroof to 1 ¼ lengths at Carlisle last time out. Itchy Feet is the top-rated in the field and returned with a solid second in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree - a repeat of that run would see him go very close - the concern I have with him is that he’s now 7 races without a win. Alnadam is useful on his day too, but is also a bit of an in-and-out character, plus has to give 4lbs to the Nicholls runner - BRAVEMANSGAME. This could be the difference, but this Nicholls runner caught the eye on his chase debut at Newton About last time anyway. He beat Fusil Raffles that day by just over 5 lengths and with that horse since winning the Charlie Hall Chase (albeit a bit lucky), the form has been franked. Add in that Nicholls loves to target this race - he’s won it 7 times in the last 10 years, then I’m happy to stick with decent hurdler from last season that is making into a nice chaser.

 

2.25 - Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ½f ITV

15/16– Aged between 5 and 7 years-old
14/16 – Had won between 1-3 times (hurdles UK) before
14/16 – Carried 10-9 or more
12/16 – Rated between 132 and 143
11/16 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner, Paisley Park 2019)
10/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
9/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Placed favourites
8/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – French bred
6/16 – Had raced at Haydock before
4/16 – Trained by David Pipe
3/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/16 – Trained by Nick Williams
Main Fact won the race in 2020
Stoney Mountain won the race in 2019
Paisley Park won the race in 2018
Sam Spinner won the race in 2017

SUREWIN VERDICT: With 14 of the last 16 winners carrying 10-9 or more, then this is a good place to start. This would also be a negative for the likes of Riggs and Rightplacerightime, who have been well-fancied in the betting all week. The Jamie Snowden runner - Stoney Mountain - bounced back to form with a top win at Newbury last time - he’s up just 4lbs for that, but with that last race coming off a 170-day break, then you just worry about the ‘bounce factor’ - he had DIDTHEYLEAVEYOUOUTTO (e/w) just ¾ of a length back in second, but this Nick Gifford runner was staying on well that day. He is only 2lbs higher too and looks the sort to improve for this slightly longer trip. Kevin Brogan rides and he can claim a handy 3lbs. The other of interest is the Philip Hobbs-trained ORBYS LEGEND (e/w). He actually had Didtheyleaveyououtto a length back in second at Chepstow on his return run, so is closely-matched with that horse too. He’s up 8lbs for that, but I feel the step up in trip here to 3m from 2m 3f will suit and that can also eke out a bit more improvement from this lightly-raced hurdler. Of the rest, Flight Deck was a neck winner at Wetherby last time and is only 3lbs higher, while the consistent Bass Rock has to enter the mix too. If The Cap Fits is the class act, but he’s got 11-12 to carry round and that might just be his downfall in the end. So, of those at bigger prices a chance is taken on the Paul Nicholls runner - STORM ARISING (e/w). This 7 year-old was last seen running down the field in the Pertemps Network Final Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, but before that had won two of his three starts. He’s back from a break and sports the first-time cheekpieces here, while with Harry Cobden riding, he looks a decent e/w option from a powerful yard.

 

3.00 - Betfair Chase (Registered as The Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m 1 1/2f ITV

16 Previous runnings
14/16 - Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
13/16 – Won by and Irish (4) or French (9) bred horse
13/16 - Won a Grade One chase previously
12/16 - Raced within the last 4 weeks
12/16 - Placed in the top three in their last race
12/16 - Raced at Haydock previously
11/16 - Officially rating of 168 or higher
10/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Aged 8 or older
9/16 - Winning distance - 2 ½ lengths or less
8/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
7/16 – Winning favourites
7/16 - Raced at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall last time out
6/16 – Won their latest race
4/16 - Raced at Aintree last time out
The average winning price in the last 16 runnings is 5/1
No Irish-trained winner yet
8 of the last 9 winners aged 9 or younger
The Paul Nicholls yard has won the prize in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 & 2014
The Nigel Twiston-Davies yard has won the prize in 2010, 2017, 2018 and 2020  
The Colin Tizzard yard has won the race in 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2019

SUREWIN VERDICT: The big question here is - will the ground be softer enough for the three-time winner of the race - BRISTOL DE MAI? As we know, this popular grey has landed this race three times in the last four years - including 12 months ago - and at the age of 10 he’s back for more as he tries to equal Kauto Star’s four wins in the race. His record at Haydock is impressive to stay the least - 1-1-1-1-2-1 - and despite not been out since being pulled up in the Aintree Grand National, is a horse that goes well fresh. He’s no spring chicken at 10 (going on 11), but year-after year some have written him off in this race and he’s proved those doubters wrong. Yes, the softer the ground the better for him, but he won this in 2018 on good ground! This does, however, look a strong renewal with the 172-rated Irish raider - A Plus Tard - coming over. This Henry De Bromhead runner is rated 6lbs higher than Bristol De Mai and at 7 year-olds has then much younger legs. Those against him will note last season’s Gold Cup runner-up has never raced at Haydock, plus he’s also yet to win beyond 3m. That said, he’s yet to finish out of the first three, from 11 runs over fences, and with Rachael Blackmore coming over for the ride he’s sure to get plenty of interest. Waiting Patiently is classy on his day and is now with trainer Christian Williams after being switched from the Ruth Jefferson yard. This 10 year-old has only had 13 runs over fences (6 wins), but the last of those successes came back in 2018 and as we know he’s a fragile horse. Nicholls has a top record in the race (6 wins) and pins his hopes on Next Destination here. He was last seen running second in the NH Chase at the Festival in March and we know he’ll stay further than this 3m1f trip. His negative, for me, would be that he’s only raced three times over fences. You’d feel that although useful handicappers - Clondaw Castle and Chatham Street Lad - have a bit to find off level weights, so the others of interest would be Imperial Aura and ROYALE PAGAILLE (e/w). The former has won 50% of his 8 chase races, but the concern would be that he was pulled up in the Ryanair Chase last time out and bled from the nose that day too. At 8, he’s got time on his side and was certainly going the right way during the early part of last season, but is also an unknown over this longer trip with all recent runs coming between 2m4f and 2m5f. So, the other call is the Venetia Williams runner Royale Pagaille. This 7 year-old is another with decent course form here (2-from-2) and was very impressive in landing the Peter Marsh Chase here last January. He finished lame in the Gold Cup since then, so had an excuse, but has had 8 months off since then and at just 7 years-old has plenty of time on his side. He can go well too at a track we know suits.

 

3.35 - My Odds Boost On Betfair Handicap Chase (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 3m 1 1/2f ITV

10/10 - Aged 9 or younger
10/10 - Carried 10-10 or more in weight
9/10 - Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 - Won between 1-3 times over fences
8/10 - Aged between 6-8 years-old
8/10 - Irish (6) or French (2) bred
7/10 - Carried 11-6 or more in weight
7/10 - Won a race over at least 3m before
7/10 - Had run at Haydock before
7/10 - Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 - Rated between 135 and 145 (inc)
6/10 - Placed in the top 3 last time out
6/10 - Placed favourites
4/10 - Won last time out  
2/10 - Winning favourites (1 joint, 1 co)

SUREWIN VERDICT: The Christian Williams yard have two in here - Potters Corner - who ran well for a long way in the Cross Country race at Cheltenham last week, and Strictlyadancer, who has won his last two. He’s up 7lbs for that last win, but in his better race gets in with just 10st 5lbs in weight, plus the useful Jack Tudor takes off a handy 3lbs too. He can go well again, but you feel this is a much harder race. Course winners Joke Dancer and RAMSES DE TEILEE (e/w) will be better for recent return runs and enter the mix too, with the last-named interesting. This Pipe runner will have a big weight (12-2) to carry but is the class act in the race and has won with 11-10 in the past. Trip and ground are fine, while Tom Scudamore knows the horse well. Fidux needs to bounce back from some average runs, so the other pick is the Sandy Thomson runner -EMPIRE STEEL. This 7 year-old did really well last season - winning twice, including a 41 length beating of Protektorat at Kelso back in Feb. He’s gone well fresh in the past so the 225-day break is fine and with just four runs over fences will have more to come.

 

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