A massive day of action at Cheltenham this New Year’s Day as we begin 2026 with the ITV cameras taking in four races at the home of National Hunt racing, of which we’ve got the key trends for.
As always, here at SUREWIN we are on hand with a look at all the televised races from Prestbury Park from a trends angle – use these stats to help find the best winning profile of past winners of the race.
Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (Thursday, 1st Jan 2026)
1:25 – Betfair Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+ 0-150) 3m 1 1/2f
10/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Finished unplaced last time out
9/10 – Carried 11st 1lb or more
9/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Irish (5) or French (4) bred winners
9/10 – Won over 3m (or further) before
8/10 – Wore headgear
8/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
7/10 – Won between 1-2 times before
7/10- Aged 9 or younger
7/10 – Raced at Cheltenham before
5/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Wore 1st time headgear
5/10 – Aged 9 years-old
3/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 from last 7)
2/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: INCH HOUSE
SUREWIN DANGER: HERAKLES WESTWOOD
2:00 – Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Cl1 2m4f166y ITV
22/22 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before
21/22 – Raced within the last 2 months
19/22 – Had won over 2m4f or further (fences) before
18/22 – Had won at least twice over fences before
18/22 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
18/22 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
17/22 – Rated 138 or higher
17/22 – Either French (6) or Irish (11) bred
16/22 – Aged 8 or older
16/22 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14/22 – Carried 11-0 or less
12/22 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
12/22 – Unplaced last time out
12/22 – Unplaced favourites
12/22 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
12/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/22 – Winning favourites (3 of the last 9)
4/22 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard (4 of the last 10)
2/22 – Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 5)
2/22 – Ridden by Harry Skelton (2 of the last 5)
1/22 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
9 or the last 10 winners aged between 7-9
SUREWIN BEST BET: RISKINTHEGROUND
SUREWIN DANGER: TWINJETS
2:35 – Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle Cl2 2m4f110y ITV
20/21 – Aged 8 or younger
19/21 – Won by either a French (7) or Irish (12) bred
18/21 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
17/21 – Went on to run in a race at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
17/21 – Had raced at Cheltenham before (note, 2021 running was at Kempton)
15/21 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
15/21 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
14/21 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
14/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/21 – Had won at Cheltenham before
10/21 – Went onto run in the Stayers’ Hurdle later that season
9/21 – Won last time out
8/21 – Winning favourites
7/21 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
6/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of the last 3)
8 of the last 9 aged 6-8
2 of the last 3 winners were Irish trained
Lucky Place (3/1) won the race in 2025
2 of the last 4 winners Irish-trained
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1
Note: The 2021 running was staged at Kempton
SUREWIN BEST BET: KABRAL DU MATHAN
SUREWIN DANGER: GOWEL ROAD
3:10 – Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m ITV
18/21 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
17/21 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
17/21 – Had won a hurdles race over at least 2m4f before
16/21 – Had won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
15/21– Had raced at Cheltenham before
14/21 – Rated 130 or higher
12/21 – Unplaced last time out
12/21 – Carried 10-9 or more
11/21 – Went onto run in a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
11/21 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/21 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
10/21 – Unplaced favourites
9/21 – Had won over at least 2m 7f (hurdles) before
8/21 – French bred
6/21 – Had won over hurdles at Cheltenham before
7/21 – Won last time out
4/21 – Winning favourites
2/21 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/21 – Won by the Olly Murphy yard (2 of the last 5)
1/21 – Won by a mare
1/21 – Went onto win the Stayers’ Hurdle later that season (Big Buck’s, 2009)
3 of the last 10 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
8 of the last 9 winners aged 6-8
SUREWIN BEST BET: MA SHANTOU
SUREWIN DANGER: DOUBLE POWERFUL
