A busy one this Saturday as the ITV cameras head to Wincanton with the Badger Beer Handicap Chase, their feature, plus they are also at Doncaster for the ultra-competitive November Handicap and also take in three Aintree contests – as always, here at SUREWIN Andy Newton has got all the horse racing trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races…..
Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/SkyRacing)
1:25 – Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4
19/21 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
19/21 – Had won over 6f before
18/21 – Had at least 6 previous runs that season
18/21 – Won from stall 12 or lower
17/21 – Rated 99 or higher
16/21 – Aged 4 or older
13/21 – Had won at least 5 times before in their career
11/21 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
11/21 – Had won at Doncaster before
6/21 – Ran at York (4) or Newmarket (2) last time out
5/21 – Won last time out
4/21 – Winning favourites (4 of last 12)
3/21 – Winning mare/filly
3/21 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Trainer Andrew Balding has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
7 of the last 9 winners from stall 7 or lower
ALL of the last 9 winners aged 6 or younger
The last 11 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
SUREWIN BEST BET: MONTASSIB
SUREWIN DANGER: BALMORAL LADY
3:10 – Virgin Bet A Good Bet Irish EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4
18/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
16/20 – Had 3 or more runs that season
15/20 – Had won at least twice before
14/20 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
13/20 – Unplaced last time out
11/20 – Returned 8/1 or bigger in the betting
11/20 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
11/20 – Unplaced favourites
11/20 – Had won over 1m2f before
11/20 – Ran at either Lingfield (3), Goodwood (4) or Newmarket (4) last time out
8/20 – Won by an Irish-bred filly
4/20 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of last 5)
3/20 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/20 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/20 – Won last time out
2/20 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 12)
2/20 – Ridden by David Probert
7 of the last 8 winners aged 3 or 4
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: DANIELLE
SUREWIN DANGER: PERFECT YOUR CRAFT
3.45 – Virgin Bet November Handicap Cl2 1m4f ITV4
18/21 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
18/21 – Winners that came from draw 8 or higher
17/21 – Favourites that were unplaced
17/21 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
15/21 – Had raced at least 5 times that season
14/21 – Placed last time out
15/21 – Won carrying 9-0 or less in weight
13/21 – Had raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
13/21 – Had won over 1m4f before
13/21 – Won by a horse aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/21 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/21 – Won last time out
3/21 -Trained by John Gosden (won it 6 times in all)
2/21 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 12/1
Just 2 winning favourites since 1996
3 of the last 8 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
Lord Melbourne (14/1) won the race in 2024
Note: The 2023 November Handicap was run on the AW at Newcastle
SUREWIN BEST BET: LORD MELBOURNE
SUREWIN DANGER: ONEFORTHEGUTTER
Wincanton Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1:45 – BetMGM Paul & Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m 5 ½f ITV4
17/18 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Didn’t win last time out
16/18 – Aged 7 or younger
14/18 – Had won over at least 2m4f before (hurdles)
13/18 – Had won at least twice before (hurdles)
13/18 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
11/18 – Rated between 119-129
10/18 – Finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out
10/18 – Aged 6 years-old
9/18 – Irish bred
8/18 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
8/18 – Had run at the track before
5/18 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
4/18 – Winning favourites (or joint)
2/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (3 of the last 14)
2/18 – Trained by Harry Fry (2 of the last 12)
2/18 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 4)
2/18 – Ridden by Tom Cannon (2 of the last 4)
8 of the last 11 winners aged 6 or 7
SUREWIN BEST BET: JUBILEE ALPHA
SUREWIN DANGER: BETHPAGE
2:23 – Boodles Rising Stars Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4
17/18 – Had won no more than twice over fences
17/18 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
15/18 – Irish (10) or French (5) bred
14/18 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/18 – Had won over 2m3f or further (Chase)
12/18 – Favourites placed
11/18 – Aged 6 or younger
9/18 – Won last time out
9/18 – Winning favourites
7/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
13 of the last 16 winners were aged between 5-7
SUREWIN BEST BET: COBRA QUEEN
SUREWIN DANGER: BLUEKING D’OROUX
2:55 – BetMGM Elite Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4
19/21 – Aged 7 or younger
19/21 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
18/21 – Came from the top three in the betting
16/21 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
15/21 – Won between 2-5 times before (hurdles)
13/21 – Rated 150 or lower
10/21 – Unplaced last time out
9/21 – Having first run of the season
9/21 – Won last time out
7/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (last 3)
5/21 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/21 – Trained by Alan King (3 of the last 9)
2/21 – Trained by John Quinn
Nicky Henderson trained the winner in 2018 and 2019
Harry Cobden has ridden the last three winners
Rubaud won the race in 2023 and 2024
Knappers Hill won the race in 2022
SUREWIN BEST BET: RUBAUD
SUREWIN DANGER: HAMLET’S NIGHT
3:30 – 64th Badger Beer Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV4
20/22 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
19/22 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
18/22 – Won a 3m or further chase race previously
18/22 – Won at least two chase races previously
17/22 – Won by a horse aged between 7 and 9 years-old
17/22 – Placed in the top four in their last race
16/22 – Raced at the course previously (over fences)
16/22 – Won between 2 and 5 times over fences before
16/22 – Favourites placed
13/22 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
12/22 – Irish-bred horse
12/22 – Raced at either Sandown (5), Wincanton (3) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
11/22 – Raced already that season
10/22 – Priced at double-figures
9/22 – Won their latest race
9/22 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
8/22 – Favourites that won (1 joint, 1 Co)
8/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/22 – Ridden by a claiming conditional jockey (including 7 of the last 13 years)
4/22 – Won by the Pipe stable
SUREWIN BEST BET: THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE
SUREWIN DANGER: ART OF DIPLOMACY
Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
12:55– Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV4
13/13 – Didn’t win last time out
11/13 – Irish (8) or French (3) bred winners
11/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
10/13 – Had won at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
9/13 – Unplaced last time out
9/13 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
9/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Had run at Aintree before (1 winner)
4/13 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
4/13 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Charlie Longsdon
1:30 – Watch On Racing TV Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl3 (4yo+) 3m1f ITV4
Only 2 previous runnings
2/2 – Favourites
2/2 – Carried 11-1 or more
2/2 – Aged 6 or 7
Trainers Rebecca Curtis and Lucinda Russell have won this race before
Trainer Rebecca Curtis is 2-5 (40%) with her chasers at the track
SUREWIN BEST BET: IMPOSE TOI
SUREWIN DANGER: IDEM
2:40 – Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV4
18/20 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
18/20 – Rated 124 or more
16/20 – Aged 8 or older
16/20 – Had won (chase) over at least 2m4f before
14/20 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/20 – Had run at Aintree before (6 over the GN style fences)
12/20 – Carried 10-12 or more
10/20 – Irish bred
10/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/20 – Returned a double-figure price
5/20 – Winning favourites
3/20 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National
3/2 – Won last time out
2/20 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
14 of the last 19 winners were aged 8 or 9 years-old
The last 7 winners aged 9 or younger
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 12 runnings
King Turgeon won this race in 2024
SUREWIN BEST BET: WHITE RHINO
SUREWIN DANGER: GABORIOT
