More excellent jumping action at Ascot and Haydock this Saturday with the ITV cameras heading to both tracks. The Betfair Chase is the highlight from Haydock, while the main event at Ascot is the 1965 Chase – As always, here at SUREWIN, Andy Newton is on hand with all the trends and stats…..
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/SkySports Racing)
1.30 – Ladbrokes 1965 Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f8y ITV
18/22 – Aged 8 or younger
19/22 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
17/22 – Had won over this trip (fences) 2m5f or further before
16/22 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
15/22 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
15/22 – Favourites placed
14/22 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
14/22 – Won by a French-bred horse
14/22 – Ran at Aintree (6) or Cheltenham (8) last time out
13/22 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
11/22 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/22 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
10/22 – Won last time out
10/22 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
4/22 – Aged 5 years-old
3/22 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (5 total)
2/22 – Won by trainer Alan King
2/22 – Won by trainer Philip Hobbs
2/22 – Went onto win at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Albertas Run & Vautour, Ryanair Chase 2009 & 2016)
Pic D’Orhy won this in 2023 and 2024
Oner Johnny de la Hey has won 3 of the last 6
Note: The 2002 running was at Wincanton and the 2004 renewal at Windsor
SUREWIN BEST BET: PIC D’ORHY
SUREWIN DANGER: JANGO BAIE
2.40 – Ascot Hurdle Race (Grade 2) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV
23/23 – Priced 4/1 or less
21/23 – Won over at least 2m 1/2f (hurdles) previously
19/23 – Won a Grade 2 (or better) hurdle race previously
19/23 – Won by and Irish (12) or French (7) bred horse
16/23 – Favourites placed
15/23 – Had their last race 3 months or longer ago
14/23 – Won their latest race
13/23 – Won between 3-5 times over hurdles previously
13/23 – Won by a horse aged 7 or older
11/23 – Won a Grade 1 hurdle race previously
11/23 – Favourites that won (2 joint)
8/23 – Won a hurdles race at Ascot previously
7/23 – Went onto run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle after winning this (1 winner)
5/23 – Went onto race in the Champion Hurdle that same season (4 of 5 finished 4th or better, Faugheen won both renewals in 2014-15
6/23 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
5/23 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
4 of the last 19 winners were Irish-trained
3/23 – Trained by Harry Fry (3 of the last 10)
2/23 – Won by the Willie Mullins stable
Nico de Boinville has ridden 3 of the last 5 winners
Lucky Place (4/1) won the race in 2024
Note: the 2004 & 2005 renewals were at Windsor
SUREWIN BEST BET: WODHOOH
SUREWIN DANGER: CELTIC DINO
3.15 – Lay & Wheeler Hurst Park Handicap Chase Cl2 2m192y ITV
18/19 – Aged between 6 and 9 years-old
18/19 – Had won over fences over 2m (or further) before
17/19 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
15/19 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/19 – Rated 142 or higher
12/19 – Carried 11-0 or more
12/19 – Had raced at Ascot before
11/19 – Ran at either Ascot (6) or Cheltenham (5) last time out
11/19 – Placed favourites
10/19 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
9/19 – Won last time out
8/19 – Placed horses from the Paul Nicholls yard
8/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Aged 6 years-old
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/19 – Ridden by Jonathan Burke (3 of the last 8)
2/19 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies (2 of the last 7)
2/19 – Trained by Gary Moore
2/19 – Trained by Harry Fry (2 of the last 3)
Martator (13/8 fav) won the race in 2024
Boothill (2/1 jfav) won the race in 2022
SUREWIN BEST BET: MARTATOR
SUREWIN DANGER: KOTMASK
Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.15 – Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3f ITV
11/13 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Had won between 1-2 times before
10/13 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
9/13 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
9/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Had won over at least 2m2f before
6/13 – Ridden by a conditional claiming jockey (including last 3)
4/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Evan Williams
Steel Alley (6/1) won the race in 2024
SUREWIN BEST BET: KABRAL DU MATHAN
SUREWIN DANGER: ANDASHAN
1.50 – Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase Cl2 (4yo+) 2m 5 1/2f ITV
14/14 – 0-2 wins over fences
13/14 – Returned 7/2 or shorter
12/14 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Placed in the top 2 last time out
10/14 – Rated between 144-149
9/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (7 of the last 11)
9/14 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/14 – 0-2 runs over fences before
7/14 – Winning favourites
6/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Ridden by Harry Cobden (4 of the last 9)
3/14 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 11)
SUREWIN BEST BET: THE JUKEBOX MAN
SUREWIN DANGER: BUTCH
2.25 – Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ½f ITV
17/20– Aged between 5 and 7 years-old
17/20 – Had won between 1-3 times (hurdles UK/Ire) before
17/20- – Carried 10-9 or more
14/20 – Rated between 132 and 144
13/20 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
12/20 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner, Paisley Park 2019)
11/20 – Placed favourites
10/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/20 – Won last time out
8/20 – French bred
6/20 – Had raced at Haydock before
4/20 – Trained by David Pipe
4/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Shoot First (22/1) won this race in 2024
SUREWIN BEST BET: HARTINGDON
SUREWIN DANGER: MA SHANTOU
3.00 – Betfair Chase (Registered as The Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m 1 1/2f ITV
20 Previous runnings
18/20 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
17/20 – Won by and Irish (4) or French (13) bred horse
16/20 – Won a Grade One chase previously
15/20 – Raced at Haydock previously
14/20 – Placed in the top three in their last race
13/20 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
13/20 – Favourites placed
12/20 – Officially rating of 168 or higher
11/20 – Aged 8 or older
10/20 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
9/20 – Won by a previous winner of the race
8/20 – Winning favourites
7/20 – Raced at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall last time out
6/20 – Won their latest race
4/20 – Raced at Aintree last time out
The average winning price in the last 20 runnings is 4/1
Just 1 Irish-trained winner
11 of the last 13 winners aged 9 or younger
The Paul Nicholls yard has won the prize in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 & 2014
The Nigel Twiston-Davies yard has won the prize in 2010, 2017, 2018 and 2020
The Tizzard yard has won the race in 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2019
Royale Pagaille has won the last two runnings
SUREWIN BEST BET: ROYALE PAGAILLE
SUREWIN DANGER: HAITI COULEURS
3.35 – Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 3m 1 1/2f ITV
14/14 – Aged 9 or younger
13/14 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
13/14 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Irish (8) or French (4) bred
11/14 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
11/14 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
11/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Won a race over at least 3m before
9/14 – Had run at Haydock before
9/14 – Carried 11-6 or more in weight
8/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Rated between 135 and 145 (inc)
6/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint, 1 co) (3 of the last 5)
Trainer Venetia Williams has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
6 of the last 7 winners aged 7 or 8
SUREWIN BEST BET: WHISTLE STOP TOUR
SUREWIN DANGER: WA WA
