TIt’s Ayr Gold Cup Day in Scotland (Ayr racecourse) this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are also heading to Newbury for their Dubai Duty Free Day – We’ve 9 LIVE races in total and we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends for each race, plus our verdict.
Did you know? 18 of the last 24 Ayr Gold Cup winners FAILED to win their last race, while 15 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 8 or higher.
Use our key trends to whittle down the runners and help find the best profiles of past winners.
AYR Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.15 – Ladbrokes ‘Free Bet At Ayr’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m RTV
- 13/13 – Won at least twice before
- 13/13 – Rated between 88 and 96
- 12/13 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
- 11/13 – Won previously over 1m
- 11/13 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
- 10/13 – Aged between 3-5 years-old
- 9/13 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
- 9/13 – Drawn between stalls 3 and 9 (inc)
- 8/13 – Placed favourites
- 8/13 – Carried 9-3 or less in weight
- 8/13 – Irish bred
- 7/13 – Had run at Ayr before
- 4/13 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
- 2/13 – Trained by David O’Meara
- 2/13 – Winning favourites
- 2/13 – Trained by Richard Spencer
Revich won the race in 2021 & 2023 and 3rd in 2022
Surewin Best Bet: MR KING
Surewin Danger: THUNDER ROAR
1.50 – Ladbrokes ‘Big Football Bet Builder Boosts’ Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV
- 13/14 – Didn’t win last time out
- 13/14 – Yet to race at Ayr
- 13/14 – Won over 1m2f or more
- 13/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
- 12/14 – Winners from stalls 8 or lower
- 12/14 – Rated between 101 and 111
- 11/14 – Won 3 or more times before
- 11/14 – Irish bred
- 9/14 – Aged 4 or older
- 9/14 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
- 3/14 – Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of the last 12)
- 3/14 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
- 4/14 – Winning favourites
- 2/14 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
- 2/14 – Trained by the Johnston yard (2 of the last 10)
- Owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
- 6 of the last 9 winners drawn between 3-7
Surewin Best Bet: LIBERTY LANE
Surewin Danger: CERTAIN LAD
2.25 – Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV
- 22/22 – Carried 8-11 or more
- 20/22 – Previous winners over 6f
- 19/22 – Aged 5 or younger
- 18/22 – Carried 9-0 or more
- 17/22 – Had 5 or more runs that season
- 16/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
- 16/22 – Winning distance 1 length or less
- 15/22 – Had raced at Ayr before (6 won)
- 14/22 – Finished 5th or better last time out
- 13/22 – Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
- 12/22 – Unplaced favourites
- 9/22 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
- 5/22 – Drawn in stalls 8 to 20 (inc) i.e horses drawn either high or low have done best
- 5/22 – Won last time out
- 5/22 – Winning Favourites (last 2 favs have won)
- 3/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey
- 1/22 – Filly or mare winners
- Wobwobwob won the race in 2023
- Tim Easterby has won 2 of the last 6
- 7 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 11 or lower
Surewin Best Bet: NARIKO
Surewin Danger: SILKIE WILKIE
3.00 – Ladbrokes ‘Get Rewarded With Ladbucks’ Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV
- 20/22 – Had never raced at Ayr before
- 19/22 – Finished 4th or better last time out
- 18/22 – Previous winners over 6f
- 18/22 – Had won one or two times before
- 16/22 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
- 15/22 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
- 15/22 – Winning distance 1 length or further
- 15/22 – Had 3 or more runs that season
- 13/22 – Placed favourites
- 11/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
- 10/22 – Won last time out
- 5/22 – Winning favourites
- 3/22 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
- 3/22 – Trained by Bryan Smart
- William Haggas has won 2 of the last 76
- Trainer Richard Fahey has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
Surewin Best Bet: DANDANA
Surewin Danger: MOOD QUEEN
3.35 – Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV
- 24/24 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
- 21/24 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
- 21/24 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
- 19/24 – Had won over 6f before
- 18/24 – Failed to win their last race
- 17/24 – Carried 9-1 or more
- 17/24 – Came from a double-figure stall
- 15/24 – Rated 90-101
- 15/24 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
- 15/24 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
- 13/24 – Winning distance 1 length or less
- 13/24 – Had 7 or more runs that season
- 13/24 – Unplaced favourites
- 12/24 – Ran at Doncaster (4), Goodwood (5) or Haydock (3) last time out
- 13/24 – Had raced at Ayr before
- 5/24 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
- 4/24 – Winning favourites (or joint) (only 5 winning favs since 1980)
- 2/24 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of the last 19)
- 2/24 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 12)
- 2/24 – Trained by David O’Meara (2 of the last 11)
- 0/24 – Filly or mare winners
- The last 8 winners were drawn 12+
- Trainer Karl Burke has won the race three times (1994, 1998 & 2024)
- 17 of the last 20 winners carried 9-0 or more in weight
- 15 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 20 winners came from stall 8)
- Since 1980 just 8 winners aged 6 or older
- Since 1980 just 2 winners aged 7 or older
- The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronslea in 1930/31
- Note: The 2018 renewal was a dead-heat
Surewin Best Bet: FLASH HARRY
Surewin Danger: JORDAN ELECTRICS
NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.30 – Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y ITV
- 22/23 – Raced four or more times that season
- 20/23 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
- 19/23 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
- 18/23 – Won a Listed or Group race before
- 18/23 – Won over 5f previously
- 18/23 – Aged 5 or younger
- 17/23 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
- 15/23 – Won 4 or more times
- 13/23 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
- 8/23 – Previous Group race winners
- 7/23 – Won their last race
- 7/23 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 4 of last 12 winners)
- 6/23 – Favourites
- 6/23 – Mare winners
- 5 of the last 7 winners drawn 5 or lower
- Jamie Spencer has ridden 2 of the last 10 winners
Surewin Best Bet: RAGE OF BAMBY
Surewin Danger: RUMSTAR
2.05 – Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m 5 1/2f ITV
- 2 previous runnings
Not So Sleepy won the race in 2023 and 2024
Trainer William Haggas has a 30% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Owen Burrows has a 27% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding is just 2 from 56 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Surewin Best Bet: MASTER BUILDER
Surewin Danger: AZAHARA PALACE
2.40 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2f ITV
- 14/15 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
- 14/15 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
- 14/15 – Won over 1m2f or further before
- 13/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old (9 of the last 10)
- 13/15 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
- 12/15 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
- 11/15 – Drawn 8 or lower
- 10/15 – Won 3 or 4 times
- 7/15 – Won last time out
- 7/15 – Rated between 92 and 97 (inc)
- 6/15 – Winning favourites
- 5/15 – Had run at Newbury before
- 8 of the last 10 winners drawn 5 or lower
Surewin Best Bet: MUSTAZEED
Surewin Danger: SERENITY BLUE
3.15 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y ITV
- 18/23 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
- 18/23 – Won over 6f previously
- 17/23 – Won from draw 5 or lower
- 16/23 – Raced 3 or more times
- 16/23 – Favourites placed
- 14/23 – Foaled in March or later
- 14/23 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
- 11/23 – Favourites (or joint) that won
- 8/23 – Won exactly two races before
- 8/23 – Won by an April foal
- 8/23 – Won their previous race
- 5/23 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
- 4/23 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
- 2/23 – Trained by Clive Cox (2 of the last 9)
- 2/23– Trained by Roger Varian (2 of the last 6)
- 2/23 – Trained by Richard Hannon
- 2/23 – Trained by Karl Burke
- 3/23 – Trained by Richard Fahey
- 0/23 – Filly winners
- 7 of the last 10 winners from stalls 3 or lower
- 4 of the last 7 winners from stalls 2 (3) or 8 (2)
