It’s the last weekend before Christmas and it looks set to be another decent Saturday of jumping action with the ITV cameras heading to Haydock and Ascot for six LIVE races.
The Grade One Howden Long Walk Hurdle (2.25) is one of the weekend highlights – a contest that will has produced 6 winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in the last 23 years.
With the last horse to win both races Paisley Park in 2018/19.
The 2023 and 2024 winner Crambo is back for more too – he’ll will be looking to become the first three-time winner since Reve de Sivola.
While at Haydock, the Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (2:05pm) is the main event – a race we’ve also got the 2023 winner Famous Bridge returning.
So, to help you narrow down the fields – here at SUREWIN – we’ve got all the big-race trends and key stats.
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (Sky Sports Racing/ITV)
12.40 – Howden Graduation Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f SKY
10/11 – Aged 7 or younger
10/11 – Favourites placed in the top 3
10/11 – Irish/French bred winners
10/11 – Won between 1-2 times over fences
9/11 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/11 – Aged 6 or younger
7/11 – Priced 5/4 or shorter
5/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/11 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
SUREWIN BEST BET: FIREFOX
SUREWIN DANGER: IROKO
2.25 – Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f ITV4
22/23 – Winners that went onto compete in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) (6 won, 4 runners-up)
21/23 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
20/23 – Aged 6 or older
19/23– Placed in the top three in their last race
18/23 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
18/23 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles previously
17/23 – Favourites placed
17/23 – Won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
13/23– Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
13/23– Raced at Newbury last time out
12/23– French-bred horse
10/23 – Won their last race
10/23 – Favourites that won
8/23 – Won by a past winner
3/23 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/23 – Trained by Emma Lavelle
0/23 – Irish trained winners
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has won the last two runnings
Crambo won the race in 2023 and 2024
Note:
2022 running – Kempton
2009 and 2010 runnings – Newbury
2005 running – Chepstow
2004 running -Windsor
SUREWIN BEST BET: IMPOSE TOI
SUREWIN DANGER: CRAMBO
3.00 – Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV4
18/19 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
13/19 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
12/19 – Raced at Ascot previously
11/19 – Aged either 7 or 8 years-old
11/19 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/19 – Won by a French bred horse
10/19 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/19 – Favourites placed
7/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/19 – Aged 7 years-old
6/19 – Won at least 5 times over fences before
5/19 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Ascot (2) last time out
3/19 – Favourites (1 joint)
2/19 – Trained by Henry Daly
2/19 – Trained by Anthony Honeyball (2 of the last 8)
2/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 6 runnings)
9 of the last 11 winners carried 10-10 or more
8 of the last 11 winners carried 11-3 or more
Victtorino (4/1) won the race in 2023 and 2024
Venetia Williams won the race in 2013, 2023 and 2024
Note: The 2004 renewal was staged at Windsor
SUREWIN BEST BET: VICTTORINO
SUREWIN DANGER: THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE
3.35 – Ascot Rotary Club Festive Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m ITV4
21/21 – Had won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
20/21 – Aged between 4-7 years-old
20/21 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
18/21 – Had raced within the last 2 months
15/21 – Carried 10-10 or more
12/21 – Officially rated between 127 and 136
12/21 – Unplaced favourites
11/21 – Priced 12/1 or bigger in the betting
9/21 – Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
8/21 – Won last time out
8/21 – Irish bred
8/21 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 8)
3/21 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/21 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 8 winners ran in the Greatwood Hurdle that season
Hughie Morrison has won 2 of the last 45
SUREWIN BEST BET: ALEXEI
SUREWIN DANGER: FIERCELY PROUD
Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
2.05 – Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase Cl2 3m 1 1/2f ITV4
17/17 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
15/17 – Failed to win their last race
14/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
13/17 – Won over at least 3m before (hurdles or fences)
11/17 – Had raced at Haydock previously (hurdles or fences)
11/17 – Won between 2-3 times over fences previously
11/17 – Favourites placed
5/17 – French bred
3/17 – Went onto run in that season’s Aintree Grand National (all unplaced)
3/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/17 – Trained by the Tizzard yard
11 of the last 17 winners carried 11-0 or more
The last winner aged in double figures was in 1994
The last 17 winners ALL aged 8 or younger
The last 10 winners aged between 6-8
Famous Bridge (5/2 fav) won the race in 2023
SUREWIN BEST BET: GRAND GESTE
SUREWIN DANGER: JACKS PARROT
2.40 – Betfred ‘The Classic Bookmaker’ Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed Race) (Reg as the Abram Hurdle) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m3f ITV4
11/11 – Aged 4 or 5
10/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/11 – Had never raced at Haydock
9/11 – Won between 0-1 times over hurdles
9/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
9/11 – Top 2 finish last time out
6/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Fergal O’Brien (2 of the last 8)
2/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (last two)
SUREWIN BEST BET: JACKIE HOBBS
SUREWIN DANGER: SUPREME MALINAS
