After a few weather-hit weekends the propects look better this Saturday with the ITV Racing cameras heading to Ascot and Haydock for seven races.
At Ascot the Clarence House Chase (3:30) is the main event and all eyes will be on Jonbon looks to win the race for a second time but will face Il Etait Temps.
Then at Haydock, the Peter Marsh Chase (2.00) is their showcase race – a prize that trainer Venetia Williams has won four times in the past and could be running her two-time winner Royale Pagaille.
While we could also see last year’s winner Mr Vango.
So, like all big race days, here at SUREWIN we’ve got all the big races covered from a trends and stats angle – just these to narrow down the runners and find the best profiles based on past winners.
Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
1:25 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV
17/17 – Aged 7 or younger
16/17 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
16/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Won their last race
9/17 – Aged 5 years-old
8/17 – Winning Favourites
6/17 – Had raced at Haydock previously
6/17 – French bred
4/17 – Ran at Haydock last time out
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (6 in total) (3 of the last 6)
2/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/17– Trained by Venetia Williams
2/17– Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 9)
2/17 – Trained by Donald McCain Jnr
1/17 – Went onto win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cinders And Ashes, 2012)
The last NINE winners here all aged 5 or 6
Jeriko Du Reponet won the race in 2024 (run at Doncaster)
Jonbon (2/5 fav) won the race in 2022
Faivoir (7/1) won the race in 2021
Note: 2004 Renewal was staged at Wetherby
SUREWIN BEST BET: OLD PARK STAR
SUREWIN DANGER: HURRICANE PAT
2:00 – SkyBet Peter Marsh Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV
20/20 – Won on ground described as soft or worse previously
19/20 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
18/20 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
17/20 – Aged 8 or older
16/20 – Had run within the last 36 days
15/20 – Officially Rated 139 or higher
15/20 – Won at Haydock previously
14/20 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
14/20 – Favourites unplaced
13/20 – Won before (fences) over at least 3m
12/20 – Irish bred
12/20 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
12/20 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
11/20 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
10/20 – Won over fences at Haydock before
9/20 – Won between 3-5 times over fences before
9/20 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
7/20 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
7/20 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
7/20 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/20 – Raced in the Rowland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out
5/20 – Trained by Sue Smith (3 of the last 8)
5/20 – Won their last race
4/20 – Ridden by Danny Cook
3/20 – Winning favourites
3/20 – Trained By Venetia Williams (4 wins in total)
2/20 – Trained by the McCain stable
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 9/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: KONFUSION
SUREWIN DANGER: ROYALE PAGAILLE
2:35 – Sky Bet Acca Freeze Handicap Hurdle (Cl3) (4yo+ 0-140) 3m 1/2f ITV
9/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Won between 2-4 times (hurdles) before
8/10 – Won over 3m (hurdles) in the past
8/10 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
8/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Placed favourites
7/10 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
6/10 – Irish bred winners
6/10 – Rated between 124-129
6/10 – Returned 9/2 or shorter
5/10 – Had run at Haydock before
6/10 – Top 5 finish last time out
6/10 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
2/10 – Winning favourites
Sue Smith has trained 2 of the last 4 winners
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 9/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: SOLAR SYSTEM
SUREWIN DANGER: KYNTARA
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (Sky Sports Racing/ITV)
1:40 – BetMGM Warfield Mares´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV
13/14 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
13/14 – Officially Rated 133 or higher
13/14 – From the top 4 in the betting
13/14 – Won over at least 2m5f (hurdles) previously
10/14 – Later ran in that season’s Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
10/14 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
10/14 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
10/14 – Favourites placed
8/14 – Ran at either Haydock (4) or Newbury (4) in their last race
8/14 – Winning Favourites (5 of the last 7)
7/14 – Won their last race
6/14 – Raced at Ascot previously
4/14 – French bred
3/14 – Aged 6 years-old
3/14 – Trained by Dan Skelton (3 of last 4)
2/14 – Ridden by Harry Skelton
2/14 – Trained by Harry Fry
2/14 – Later finished second in the Mares’ Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
1/14 – Won the Mares’ Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) – Vroum Vroum Mag (2016)
Trainer Dan Skelton has won three of the last four runnings
The last seven winners aged 7-9
Take No Chances (13/2) won the race last season
SUREWIN BEST BET: NURSE SUSAN
SUREWIN DANGER: LA CONQUIERE
2:20 – bet365 Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV
16/17 – Won between 1-3 times over fences in the UK previously
14/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
14/17 – Either French (5) or Irish (9) bred
14/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
14/17 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
13/17 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
12/17 – Aged 8 or younger
11/17 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
10/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/17 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
8/17 – From the top 3 in the betting
6/17 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or further
5/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/17 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
4/17 – Won their last race
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (3 of last 9 runnings)
2/17 – Trained by Harry Fry (2 of last 6)
2/17 – Winning Favourites
There was no 2023 or 2024 running
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Uttoxeter
SUREWIN BEST BET: HELTENHAM
SUREWIN DANGER: NEON MOON
2:53 – BetMGM Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV
14/16 – Aged 7 or younger
12/16 – Priced 5/1 or bigger in the betting
12/16 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
11/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
11/16 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
10/16 – Officially rated 139 or higher
9/16 – Ran within in the last 5 weeks
8/16 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/16 – Went onto race in that season’s Coral Cup (best finish 2nd and 3rd )
7/16 – Won their last race
7/16 – French bred
7/16 – Had raced at Ascot previously
6/16 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles in the UK previously
6/16 – Aged 6 years-old
3/16 – Trained by David Pipe
3/16 – Raced at Cheltenham in their last race
3/16 – Favourites (1 co)
2/16 – Later raced in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (best finish 3rd)
2/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of the last 6)
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 6/1
There was no 2023 or 2024 runnings
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Haydock
SUREWIN BEST BET: TRIPOLI FLYER
SUREWIN DANGER: SURREY LORD
3:30 – BetMGM Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f ITV
22/22 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
22/22 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
20/22 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
20/22 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
19/22 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
19/22 – Favourites placed
18/22 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
16/22 – Won their last race
16/22 – Won by a French-bred horse
15/22 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (5 winners)
13/22 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
13/22 – Raced at Sandown or Wetherby last time out
12/22 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
12/22 – Favourites that won
8/22 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/22 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
5/22 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 7 times in all)
5/22 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 – Master Minded, 2013 -Sprinter Sacre, 2014 – Sire de Grugy, 2015 – Dodging Bullets, 2019 – Altior)
4/22 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
3/22 – Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 10)
2/22– Won by the Pipe stable
2/22 – Won by the Gary Moore stable
Since 2014 – Four Desert Orchind Chase (Kempton) winners have won the this in the same season (Editeur Du Gite 2023, Shishkin 2022, Altior 2019, Sire Du Grugy 2014)
Since 1989 there have only been 4 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (33 runnings) there have been 13 winners aged 8 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 23 runnings is 4/1
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005, 2013, 2017, 2023 & 2024 – Renewals at Cheltenham
SUREWIN BEST BET: IL ETAIT TEMPS
SUREWIN DANGER: JONBON
