A massive day up at Cheltenham this Saturday with the Paddy Power Gold Cup the feature race – the ITV cameras are at Prestbury Park to take in four of the races.
As always, here at SUREWIN we’ve got all the key trends & stats to help you whittle down the runners on Saturday 15th November 2025
Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
1:45 – Paddy Power Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (Registered as The November) (GBB) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m ITV
13/14 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Finished first or second last time out
13/14 – Won between 0-1 times over fences
12/14 – Favourites placed in the first three
11/14 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Had raced at Cheltenham before (hurdles/chase)
10/14 – Won last time out
8/14 – Ran at Cheltenham (4), Aintree (2) or Uttoxeter (2) last time out
7/14 – French bred
6/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Ridden by Harry Skelton
3/14 – Trained by Dan Skelton
2/14 – Trained by the Philip Hobbs yard
The last 10 winners aged 5 or 6 years-old
SUREWIN BEST BET: JULY FLOWER
SUREWIN DANGER: BE AWARE
2:20 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV
22/23 – Had run at Cheltenham before
22/23 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before
22/23 – Won by a UK-based trainer
19/23 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
16/23 – Carried 11st or less
16/23 – Had won at Cheltenham before
15/23 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
15/23 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
14/23 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
13/23 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (4) or Twiston-Davies (3)
12/23 – Placed favourites
12/23 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
11/23 – Aged 7 years-old
9/23 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
5/23 – Won their last race
5/23 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/23 – Trained by the Pipe stable
4/23 – Winning favourites
3/23 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/23 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
3/23 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
2/23 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/23 – Irish-trained winners
Only 4 winning 8 year-olds since 1998
25 of the last 26 winners aged between 6-9
The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled 14 placed horses (four winners, Il Ridoto, Stage Star, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 49 runners
The average winning SP in the last 23 years is 10/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: IL RIDOTO
SUREWIN DANGER: HOE JOLY SMOKE
2:55 – From The Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV
21/23 – Aged 7 or younger
20/23 – Had between 2 and 5 previous hurdles wins
18/23 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
18/23 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
16/23 – Carried 10-11 or less in weight
17/23 – Irish bred
15/23 – Ran at either Cheltenham (7), Aintree (4) or Chepstow (4) last time out
15/23 – Officially rated 126 to 137
15/23 – Placed favourites
15/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/23 – Had run at Cheltenham before
14/23 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
10/23 – Won their last race
9/23 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
9/23 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
4/23 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/23 – Won by an Irish-trained stable
6 of the last 17 winners have had a claiming jockey riding
SUREWIN BEST BET: SUPREMELY WEST
SUREWIN DANGER: KIKIJO
3:30 – Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f26y ITV
17/20 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
16/20 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
14/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/20 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
10/20 – Had run at Cheltenham before
9/20 – Irish-bred winners
9/20 – Carried 10-13 or less
8/20 – Returned a double-figure price
8/20 – Favourites unplaced
6/20 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a race at the Cheltenham Festival
6/20 – Won last time out
6/20 – Winning favourites
5/20 – French bred winners
3/20 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Trainer Tony Martin has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
Hamsiyann (2/1 fav) won this race 12 months ago
2 of the last 12 winners went onto be placed in the Martin Pipe Conditionals race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
2 of the last 16 winners went onto be placed in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season
SUREWIN BEST BET: ROYAL INFANTRY
SUREWIN DANGER: HAMSIYANN
