A MASSIVE day up at Prestbury Park as the Cheltenham December Meeting continues this Saturday (13th Dec), plus the ITV cameras also head to Doncaster for three races – as always, here at SUREWIN Andy Newton is on hand with all the big-race trends and stats…..
With the December Gold Cup at 1:50pm the feature – which is a race trainer Paul Nicholls has won five times.
Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1:15 – Quintessentially Mares’ Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl3 (4yo+) 2m 4 1/2f ITV
10/11 – Had run at Cheltenham before (fences) (4 won)
9/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Top 5 finish last time out
8/11 – 2+ past chase wins
8/11 – Irish bred
7/11 – Favourites placed in the first two
6/11 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/11 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
3/11 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/11 – Ridden by Brendan Powell
3/11 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 7 winners Irish-trained
7 of the last 9 winners aged 6 or 8
SUREWIN BEST BET: REALTA LIATH
SUREWIN DANGER: SHE IS FOR ME BOYS
1:50 – Support The Hunt Family Fund December Gold Cup (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f ITV
21/22 – Aged 8 or younger
20/22 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
18/22 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
17/22 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences before
16/22 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
16/22 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival later that season (2 winners, Frodon – Ryanair Chase and Coole Cody – Plate)
16/22 – Had raced at Cheltenham (fences) before (6 won)
15/22 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/22 – Officially rated 141 or higher
13/22 – Unplaced favourites
13/22 – French bred
12/22 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/22 – Carried 10-12 or more
10/22 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
10/22 – Ran in the Paddy Power (Nov) Gold Cup last time out (1 won)
7/22 – Finished in the top 5 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time out
6/22 – Won last time out
5/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/22 – Went to an Irish-trained horse
2/22 – Trained by David Pipe
2/22 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/22 – Winning favourites
10 of the last 13 winners carried 10-12 or less
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 10/1
SUREWIN BEST BET: HOE JOLY SMOKE
SUREWIN DANGER: IL RIDOTO
2:25 – Read Meg Nicholls’ Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) 2m 1/2f
13/14 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
13/14 – Had run at Cheltenham before
11/14 – Returned 15/2 or shorter
11/14 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
11/14 – Aged 7 or older
11/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
9/14 – Carried 10-12 or more
9/14 – Returned 5/1 or shorter
8/14 – Irish bred
5/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Ridden by Brendan Powell
2/14 – Ridden by Harry Cobden (last 2)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 17/2
SUREWIN BEST BET: GUNSIGHT RIDGE
SUREWIN DANGER: DR T J ECKLEBURG
3:00 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Bristol Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV
20/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
19/20 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
18/20 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
18/20 – Aged 6 or younger
17/20 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more
16/20 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
15/20 – Placed favourites
14/20 – Went on run in the Albert Bartlett (3 won) at the Cheltenham Festival
12/20 – Winning favourite (1 co, 1 joint)
12/20 – Won last time out
12/20 – Irish bred
11/20 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
11/20 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
9/20 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a Cheltenham Festival race that season
9/20 – Had won at Cheltenham before
8/20 – Won over 3m (hurdles) before
3/20 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 10)
2/20 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
11 of the last 15 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
11 of the last 13 winners were aged 5 years-old
The Tizzard yard have won 2 of the last 7 renewals
The Irish have won 2 of the last 4 runnings
SUREWIN BEST BET: RECKLESS SPENDING
SUREWIN DANGER: CONMAN JOHN
3:35 – Downlaod The BetMGM App Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4 1/2f ITV
Just 9 previous runnings
All 9 winners returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Winners carried 10-10 or more
7/9 – Aged 7 or younger
6/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/9 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
2/9 – Winning favourites
Trainers, Lucy Wadham (2), Nicky Henderson, Dan Skelton (2), Noel Williams (2), Anthony Honeyball
Woodhooh won this race last year
SUREWIN BEST BET: SIOG GAEL
SUREWIN DANGER: PRETENDING
Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/Sky Sports Racing)
2:05 – bet365 Pennine Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-150) 3m ITV
11/11 – Aged 7 or older
10/11 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
10/11 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Won over at least 3m
8/11 – Irish bred
8/11 – Aged 8 or 9
8/11 – Won between 2-4 times over fences
7/11 – Favourites finished in top 2
7/11 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/10 – Unplaced last time out
4/10 – Had run at Doncaster before
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Kim Bailey (2 of the last 4)
2/10 – Ridden by David Bass (2 of the last 4)
The last 9 winners all aged 7-9
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/2
SUREWIN BEST BET: DOCPICKEDME
SUREWIN DANGER: ALCEDO
2:40– bet365 Doncaster Mares’ Hurdle (Listed Race) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV
Just one past running
SUREWIN BEST BET: KATEIRA
SUREWIN DANGER: WORLD OF FORTUNES
3:17 – Each Way Extra At bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m½f ITV
9/11 – Carried 11st or more
8/11 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/11 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles
7/11 – Returned 4/1 or shorter
6/11 – Irish bred
3/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 8)
3 of the last 8 winners won by a claiming jockey
Brian Hughes has ridden 2 of the last 3
Trainer Donald McCain has won the last 2 runnings.
Trainer Harry Derham has a 26% strike-rate at the track with his hurdlers
SUREWIN BEST BET: BELLE LE GRAND
SUREWIN DANGER: BOWMORE
