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York Dante Meeting: DAY ONE (Weds 12th May 2021)

Saturday, May 1, 2021

Here at SUREWIN we’ve got all the trends that matter ahead of the LIVE ITV races from the opening day (Weds) of the York Dante Meeting – with the Duke Of York Clipper Stakes and the Musidora Stakes the two main events.


York Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)


1.40 – Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f ITV4

16/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
15/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Rated between 80 and 93
11/16 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
11/16 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
11/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/16 – Had won at least 3 times before
8/16 – Had run at York before
7/16 – Aged 5 years-old
7/16 – Unplaced last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
0/16 – Winners from stall 1
2019 Winner: First Eleven (5/1)

SUREWIN VERDICT: The eye will be drawn to the William Haggas runner – Ilaraab – who has won his last four races, including the last of those here at York back in October. But he’s up another 7lbs here and is also up in trip from 1m2f to 1m4f, so stamina has to be taken on trust – 11 of the last 16 winners had won previously over this distance. 15 of the last 16 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old too – that’s a negative for Raymond Tusk, Glasses Up and Maifalki, who are all older. The Brian Ellison yard (4%) and Kevin Ryan camp (4%) don’t have great records with their older horses here – Elliosn runs the already mentioned Maifalki and Ryan has Throne Hall. Trainer Roger Varian won this in 2016 and his Shandoz would have a chance, but after flopping on soft ground last time would not want any more rain. Mr Carpenter, Sam Cooke and Rhythmic Intent are proven course winners to respect too, but the call is to side with MY FRANKEL and TAQAREER. The former comes from the Sir Michael Stoute yard, that won this race in 2013 and 2014. This well-bred 4 year-old has won two of his three starts, including last time at Kempton. He’d probably be another that would be better if the rain stayed away, but Ryan Moore is an obvious plus in the saddle and he can go well. The other pick – Taqareer – was actually runner-up to My Frankel last time at Kempton and his sire is also the mighty Frankel. So, this related pair can hopefully fight out the finish again here and fly the flag for their famous dad. I just feel the return to the turf for this 4 year-old will eke out a bit more – he’s only run on the grass once – while the Gosden yard took this race when it was last run in 2019.


2.10 – Churchill Tyres Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

17/18 – Aged 6 or younger
16/18 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
14/18 – Had run at York before (5 won at the track before)
14/18 – Had won over this trip before
11/18 – Carried 8-12 or MORE
10/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
9/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/18 – Won by a 4 year-old
7/18 – Returned either 6/1 or 7/1 in the betting
4/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/18 – Won their previous race
1/18 – Winning outright favourite
9 of the last 11 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
Trainer Michael Easterby won the race in 2011 & 2014
Trainer David O’Meara won the race in 2018 and 2015
2019 Winner: Soldier’s Minute (20/1)

SUREWIN VERDICT: The last time this race was run we saw the Keith Dalgleish-trained SOLDIER’S MINUTE land the prize and this 6 year-old lines up again. He’s rated 6lbs higher this time, but has progressed nicely since that win and looks the sort to have on your radar at a track he runs well at. With 17 of the last 18 winners aged 6 or younger, then the older horses in the race – Danzeno, Mr Lupton, Gulliver, Brian The Snail and Hyperfocus are overlooked. In fact, 50% of the last 18 winners have been aged 4 – good news for Manigordo and Aberama Gold. 16 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 5 or higher, so this might be a negative for Woven, Embour, Danzeno and Staxton. Mr Lupton and Roulston Scar are proven CD winners to respect too, but away from the 2019 winner – Soldier’s Minute – the other two I like are BIESLA and ABERAMA GOLD. The first-named will be a lot fitter for a recent second at Ayr and is still fairly lightly-raced for a sprinter (11 runs). The first-time cheekpieces are also an interesting move and having won a variety of ground types then any rain is fine. Aberama Gold is fit from a good spell on the AW and has run many cracking races in defeat of late. He’s a horse that rarely runs a bad race and is another CD winner in the field that won’t mind what the ground throws up.


2.40 - Duke of York Clipper Logistics Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f ITV4

17/18 – Came from stall 9 or lower
16/18 – Previous Listed or Group Three winners
16/18 – Had won over 6f before
13/18 – Had run at York before
13/18 – Had a previous race that season
13/18 – Won by either a 4 or 5 year-old
12/18 – Came from stall 7 or lower
10/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/18 – Unplaced last time out
7/18 – Won by the favourite
6/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/18 – Won their last race
5/18 – Had won a Group One race previously in their career
2/18 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2019 Winner: Invincible Army (7/2 jfav)

SUREWIN VERDICT: Oxted is the top-rated in the field and can go close again, but was outgunned by Summerghand last time out at Newmarket in the G3 Abernant Stakes so does have a bit to prove for me. He looked the winner that day, but just didn’t quite run through to the line and is now 0-from-3 since having a wind op. The 9 yaer-old Brando is still going strong and ran well to be second in a Conditions race at Haydock last weekend – but he’s now 14 races without a win and that would be a concern. Emaraaty Ana is a CD winner and another to note, but is yet another on a bit of a losing run (6 races). Starman could have more to come with just four career runs (3 wins), but any rain after running badly on soft ground last time, would not be ideal. The two I like though are ART POWER and MOLATHAM. The former was last seen running a close 4th in the G1 Champion Sprint Stakes at Ascot in October and that is decent form. Prior to that was fourth in the G1 Sprint Cup at Haydock. He’s a G3 winner too that has won 50% of his 6 races on the turf, plus hails from the Tim Easterby yard that love to have winners at this meeting and has gone well fresh in the past too. Molatham is interesting too – mainly due to the drop back in trip. This 4 year-old didn’t see out the mile last time in the G1 QE II Stakes at Ascot, but has won over 7f so we know he’ll stay well should he be able to keep up with the pace early doors. He's not ben out since October but also won first time out last season and connections clearly feel he’s got enough pace still to come with this drop back to 6f.


3.10 - Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV4

17/18 – Had won a race before
15/18 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had a previous run that season
14/18 – Finished 4th or better last time
13/18 – Came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
11/18 – Went onto run in the Epsom Oaks
8/18 – Won by the favourite
8/18 – Won their previous race
5/18 – Previous distance winners over 1m2f
5/18 – Trained by John Gosden (5 of the last 9)
4/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (3 of last 5)
3/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Ridden by William Buick
1/18 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Sariska 2009)
0/18 – Had run at York before
11 of the last 14 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won the race
2019 Winner: Nausha (14/1)

SUREWIN VERDICT: The Khalid Abdullah pair of Noon Star and Senita are interesting, while it’s hard to ignore any Aidan O’Brien runner, so their Snowfall can’t be totally ruled out. But that last-named hasn’t looked one of their stable stars after big defeats the last four times. Yes, the step up to 1m2f might help based on breeding, but I want to see her over this trip first. Mystery Angel is another player after winning the Pretty Polly Stakes well at Newmarket earlier this month, but the one to beat here looks to be TEONA. This Roger Varian-trained 3 year-old was a very impressive winner at Newcastle last time out when stepping up to 1m2f for the first time. Yes, that was only a maiden, but she’s already around 9/2 for the Epsom Oaks next month so is clearly held in high regard. The Varian yard also won this in 2019. Of the rest, a chance is taken on the Andrew Balding runner – AURIA (e/w) – too. This 3 year-old stayed on into second last time at Ascot to suggest this step up to 1m2f will be perfect and with only three career runs should still be improving – Oisin Murphy rides.  


3.40 – Conundrum HR Consulting Handicap (Class 3) (3yo 0-95) 7f

9/9 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
9/9 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/9 – Won just once before
7/9 – Carried 9-1 or less
6/9 – Winning favourites
6/9 – Drawn between stalls 4-7 (inc)
6/9 – Ran 4 or less times
6/9 – Rated between 79-86
6/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/9 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
0/9 – Winners from stalls 1,2 or 3
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/2
2019 Winner: Space Blues (5/2 fav)

SUREWIN VERDICT: In the last 9 runnings, we’ve not had a winner from stalls 1, 2 or 3. That might be seen as a negative for Northern Express, Elakazaam and Bowman. 7 of the last 9 winners carried 9-1 or less in weight so the top two on the card – Gioia Cieca and Rifleman – have this weight stat to overcome. The last-named will be popular too coming from the John Gosden yard, but after swerving violently last time out and unshipping Ryan Moore, I’d prefer to see if that experience has impacted the horse. BOWMAN is one of just a few recent winners in the field and this Mark Johnston runner is interesting again. Yes, the draw 3 stat is a big of a negative, but he made all last time and I’m hoping he can break well and overcome that. He’s also up just 4lbs for a win at Lingfield last time, but that was his first run after being gelded too and also his debut try over 7f – there could be more to come. HUDDLETON MAC is probably better than his showing at Newbury last time when running way too free and not getting home. He’s lightly-raced and with that first run back out the way might just settle better in his race here. Oisin Murphy, who rode him to win at Sandown last August, is back in the saddle. Of the rest, Pivoting, Captain Cooper, Daphne May and Wobwobwob are others to consider in a race you could make a case for most.

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