This Saturday’s Unibet Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle and is staged at Sandown Park racecourse and is often a good guide ahead of the Cheltenham Festival in March.

In recent years the contest has been a good race for the favourite with 8 of the last 13 market leaders being placed, with five being successful, while winners often go onto contest a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival – with Noland (2006) and the 2018 winner – Summerville Boy - going onto win the Supreme Novices Hurdle, while the 2016 winner, Yorkhill, went onto land the Neptune Investment Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival later that season.

Trainer Colin Tizzard has won three of the last five runnings, while Nicky Henderson has four successes since 2011 and Paul Nicholls won the race three years in a row between 2006 and 2008.

12 months ago we saw the Harry Fry win the race for the first time when their 5 year-old Metier won the race.

Here at SUREWIN we give you all the key stats ahead of the 2022 renewal, this year staged on Saturday January 8th.

Recent Tolworth Hurdle Winners

2021 - METIER (7/4 fav)
2020 – FIDDLERONTHEROOF (5/4 fav)
2019 - ELIXIR DU NUTZ (3/1)
2018 - SUMMERVILLE BOY (8/1)
2017 – FINIAN’S OSCAR (11/10 fav)
2016 – YORKHILL (4/9 fav)
2015 – L’AMI SERGE (4/9 fav)
2014 – ROYAL BOY (9/1)
2013 – MELODIC RENDEZVOUS (7/2)
2012 – CAPTAIN CONAN (9/1)
2011 – MINELLA CLASS (6/4 fav)
2010 – No Race
2009 – No Race
2008 – BREEDSBREEZE (6/4 fav)
2007 – SILVERBURN (5/1)
2006 – NOLAND (6/4 fav)
2005 – MARCEL (3/1)
2004 – LINGO (5/4 fav)
2003 – THISTHATANDOTHER (11/4)
2002 – MIROS (7/2)

Tolworth Hurdle Betting Trends

16/17 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
16/17 – Placed 1^st or 2^nd in their last race
16/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/17 – Priced  5/1 or shorter
15/17 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
14/17 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
14/17 – Came from the top three in the market
13/17 – Won last time out
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
11/17 – Won by an Irish bred horse
9/17 – Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
9/17 – Winning Favourites
5/17 – Ran at either Sandown (3) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
3/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/17 – Ran at Sandown before
2/17 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/17 – Won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle later that season (Summerville Boy, 2018 & Noland, 2006)
1/17 - Won the Neptune Investment Hurdle later that season (Yorkhill 2016)
5 or 6 years-old have won 23 of the last 29 runnings
Since 1988 ALL winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 3/1

SUREWIN VERDICT: Some exciting Novice Hurdlers on show here, but it’s the Nicky Henderson-trained CONSTITUTION HILL that’s gone into many a notebook after his 14-length romp on hurdles debut over this course and distance last month. He showed a cracking turn of foot that day to win with any amount in-hand and currently sits as second favourite in the ante-post market for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle - another win here and he could be challenging stablemate - Jonbon - for the market leaders berth in that Festival curtain raiser. He’s taken to add to the recent Henderson winners in this race in 2012, 2014 and 2015. His main rivals look to be Datsalrightgino, who battled on well to win a nice race at Cheltenham last time out and is sure to be well-suited by the hill here at Sandown - the concern would be that his recent wins have been on much quicker ground. Jetoile has won his last two in decent fashion and could make a bold bid from the front, but those wins have come over 2m4f so you just fear that something with a tiny bit more toe will improve past him. The Moore yard look to have another fair novice hurdler on their hands in Shallwehaveonemore, while it’s interesting that the Newland camp introduce the unraced over hurdles Whizz Kid in at the deep end - he’s a former useful flat winner over in France and won’t mind the ground, it just depends if his jumping holds up. The danger to the Henderson horse though can come from the Paul Nicholls-trained Mr Glass. This 6 year-old has won both starts over hurdles (Chepstow and Newcastle) and we know he stays further than this 2m trip. But, like a few others, I just worry that Constitution Hill might be too pacey for him over this distance.

================================================================================