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St Leger Trends and Tips

Friday, September 10, 2021

The Cazoo-sponsored St Leger is the oldest of the five British flat racing Classics, as well as the longest in trip at Doncaster racecourse. Run over a distance of 1m6f and for 3 year-olds only this contest is targeted by horses that ran in that season’s Great Voltigeur, with 8 of the last 19 winners having ran in that York race before winning this, while in recent years with seen 8 winning favourites in the last 19 runnings.

Look out for John Gosden-trained horses as this powerful Newmarket stable has won the race four times in the last 19 years, while top Irish handler – Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner of the St Leger six times, including 3 of the last 8 seasons with Leading Light, Capri and Kew Gardens. Also note any Godolphin-owned entries as they these famous blue silks have won the final English Classic of the season a staggering six times!

Here at SUREWIN we've got all the key stats ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 11th September.

 

Recent St Leger Winners

2020 – Galileo Chrome (4/1)
2019 – Logician (5/6 fav)
2018 - Kew Gardens (3/1)
2017 - Capri (3/1 fav)
2016 – Harbour Law (22/1)
2015 – Simple Verse (8/1)
2014 – Kingston Hill (9/4 fav)
2013 – Leading Light (7/2 fav)
2012 – Encke (25/1)
2011 – Masked Marvel (15/2)
2010 – Arctic Cosmos (12/1)
2009 – Mastery (14/1)
2008 – Conduit (8/1)
2007 – Lucarno (7/2)
2006 – Sixties Icon (11/8 fav)
2005 – Scorpion (10/11 fav)
2004 – Rule of Law (3/1 jfav)
2003 – Brian Boru (5/4 fav)
2002 – Bollin Eric (7/1)

Key St Leger Trends

17/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
16/19 – Had 2 or 3 previous career wins
16/19 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
15/19 – Placed favourites
15/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Had won a Group race before
14/19 – Had won over at least 1m3f before
13/19 – Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season
12/19 – Winning distance of 1 length or more
12/19 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
12/19 – Had never raced over 1m6f or further before
11/19 – Officially rated 109 to 115
11/19 – Won last time out
8/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
8/19 – Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (3 won it)
5/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/19 – Trained by John Gosden
4/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total)
3/19 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it)
3/19 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (6 wins in total)
2/19 – Ridden by William Buick
2/19 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/19 – Winners from stall 1
Godolphin have won the race 6 times
Aidan O’Brien has trained 6 winners of the race
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 7/1

 

SUREWIN VERDICT: Onto the main event and the final of the five English Classics of the season for these 3 year-olds. It’s a race the Aidan O’Brien, Godolphin and John Gosden yards have dominated in recent years, and it could be more of the same this season. O’Brien has four of the 10 entries - The Mediterranean, Sir Lucan, Interpretation and High Definition - all four are actually closely matched on the ratings and as we know O’Brien is no stranger to winning these big Classics with one of his second or third strings - having won two of the last four runnings, then these Ballydoyle runners are always going to be popular. We’ve also two other Irish raiders in the race - Fernando Vichi for Donnacha O’Brien and Ottoman Empire for Johnny Murtagh. The last-named was a gutsy winner of the Gordon Stakes last time out at Goodwood - having Sir Lucan ½ length back in second. He’s an improving middle-distance performer, but I’m just not totally sure this step up to 1m6f will suit. Epsom Derby runner-up Mojo Star will be popular too - he’s since won well at Newbury but was entitled to at odds of 1/6 there. He looks the sort to improve over this longer trip too and is sure to go well. But even though HURRICANE LANE was third in the Derby - behind Mojo Star - you feel that his Godolphin horse has improved a lot more since that day on the Downs. He’s gone onto win the Irish and French Derby and the last of those at Longchamp was an impressive 6 length win. He’s up to 1m6f for the first time here, but that last run gives you every indication he’ll stay this extra 2 furlongs - he’s taken to give Godolphin their seventh win in this Classic and their first since Encke in 2012.  Of the rest, both SCOPE, who represents the Ralph Beckett yard who won this in 2015, and YOUTH SPIRIT ran fair races to be 5th and 3rd in the Great Voltigeur at York last time out - that race is a decent trial for this and both could easily improve for the step up in trip.

 

 

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