Snowy’s 2022 Grand National Preview

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With just days to go until the most watched race here in the UK and probably globally too for that matter, the 2022 Grand National will take place at Aintree on Saturday and I want to take this opportunity to give you my thoughts and views on the top 50 horses left in the race and write a comment on each one.

The top 40 horses declared on Thursday will be allowed to take part only, with the next 4 declared being given a reserve spot, but with a slim chance of actually getting into the race. I won't name any jockey's, as final riding plans will be confirmed on Thursday. 

In my opinion, whilst the tinkering of the race has been good for health and safety reasons in recent times and the race is still as attractive and exciting as it used to be (well, almost), I still prefer the old fashioned version, but that's me. In bygone days, I could eliminate so many horses as potential winners, either due to jumping issues, ground, stamina etc etc, but it's a slightly different test now and it almost resembles an ordinary 4m Handicap to me now. Yes the fences still take a bit of jumping, but it's not the severe test it used to be. 

Anyway, I will not be giving you a bet just yet, I am doing this so that you can perhaps make your own minds up and choose what you fancy for yourselves. At the end of the day, this race is more of a lottery than any other contest throughout the entire racing calendar anyway. 

In racecard order, here are my views on the top 50 left in this year's race (at the time of writing), with a comment on each.

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Horse number -  Form  -  Name -  Age and Weight -  Trainer -  Price  -  Rating out of 10 . 

1 - Minella Times  221-FP  9yo  11st10lb  Henry De Bromhead (Irish)  14/1  4/10

Won 3 from 13 over fences (placed 5). Last year's winner under the brilliant Rachel Blackmore.  Assuming she rides again, can they join the National greats by winning it twice? He is 15lb higher in the handicap, but only carried 10st3lb last year, so actually carries 20lb more this time! The track won't be an issue and he acts on any ground, the weight is a problem, as is his form since last year's win (2 runs, Fell and Pulled up). He was in much better form going into this last year, there are a few questions about this time. He may come alive when he sets foot at Aintree once again, but the weight is a burden and it could be enough to stop him. The ill fated Many Clouds carried 11st9lb to win this in 2015, but carrying that much weight to success is very rare. The last top weight winner was the legendary Red Rum back in 1974.

2 - Delta Work  3-4661  9yo  11st9lb  Gordon Elliott (Irish)   8/1  5/10

The winner of 7 of 16 over fences (placed 2) he has been bordering on Gold Cup class for a while (6th in the Gold Cup 2020) but that level has proved too much. He looked caught between a rock and a hard place, but his connections had a change of plan, they switched his attention to the 3m6f Cross Country race at Cheltenham and he beat his stable companion, the legendary Tiger Roll gamely, the pair finished well clear. That win could galavnise him into life again and he could play a big role, but the weight might be an issue, as might his indifferent jumping as well. He is usually sound, but can make the odd error, has only failed to complete once though (unseated). If he takes to the fences and avoides trouble (he's a hold up horse) he has the class to pose a threat. Any ground suits, but never ran on quick. 

3 - Easysland  42-PPP  8yo  11st7lb  Jonjo O'Neill  66/1  2/10

This ex French gelding is a winner of 8 from 18 over fences (placed 2), he is at his best in Cross Country races, at which he won at the Cheltenham festival in 2020. He beat the great Tiger Roll by 17 lengths back, he was the best at that discipline at that time, but has slowly gone downhill since. He was runner up to Tiger Roll though last year (beaten 18 lengths), he was still trained in France then, but was soon switched to the UK. His 3 runs for Jonjo have all been quite poor this season (Pulled Up all 3), the first 2 were over hurdles (possibly excusable), more was expected in last months x-country race again at the festival, but he fialed to shine once again. He has only run 22 times, so there should be more in the tank to come, it's hard to know what to expect from him though and a betting propositon he is not. 

4 - Any Second Now  13-961  10yo  11st8lb  T M Walsh (Irish)  8/1  4/10

Has won 4 from 20 over fences (placed 9) and he was an unlucky 3rd in this, when beaten 8 lengths last year (badly hampered at the 12th). The handicapper has only raised him 7lbs since then, but he only carried 10st9lb that time, yet he has to carry 12lb more a year on. That will make things tougher, but he still has a chance. He's been in form already this season and won a 4 runner contest last time out. His jumping is ok, but he has failed to finish twice (Unseat and Fall) he only made 1 real error last year and generally jumped pretty well throughout. Any ground seems to suit him. With a trouble free passage, he can make his presence felt again, but the weight isn't ideal and he might struggle to win. 

5 - Run Wild Fred  2-2122  8yo  11st7lb  Gordon Elliott (Irish)  22/1  4/10

A lightly raced sort (20 career starts), that is in his 2nd season as a Novice over fences (0 wins last season) and has so far run 11 times over fences, winning once (placed 7). That win came in a very competitive 17 runner 3m handicap in November on good ground, when he won very easily. He is 13lb higher here, but it might not stop him from going well. With a 2nd in last year's Irish National (3m5f, 28 ran) and a 2nd at the recent Cheltenham festival over 3m6f, his stamina seems assured. He has proven can handle a big handicap field as well, but does seem to prefer racing at or near the front, which is not a bad thing in the national. He hasn't fallen over fences as yet, but has been known to make the odd error. If he takes to the fences, he has e/w claims.

6 - Lostintranslation  P-15P8  10yo  11st6lb  Colin Tizzard  66/1  2/10

A classy enough chaser at his best back in 2020, but he seems on the decline and can be a little hard to predict now. His chase record reads 18 starts with 5 wins (6 placed), he was 3rd in the Gold Cup in 2020, but he ran in the 3m1f Ultima handicap this year and finished a well beaten 20 lengths 8th. No falls or unseats, he generally jumps very well, but he's pulled up in 3 of his last 7 races and he's never raced beyond 3m2f. Has won here on the inner Mildmay track, but it was a small field back in 2019. Lacks good big field competitive handicap form and although still capable, might be a bit risky in this company. 

7 - Brahma Bull  2333PU  11yo  11st6lb  W P Mullins (Irish)  66/1  2/10

Lightly raced for an 11yo (23 career starts) has run 17 times over fences, winning 4 times (placed 6), but yet to prove himself beyond 3m2f. He was 34 lengths back in 13th in last year's Irish national (3m5f), when not appearing last home over that trip. A staying on 3rd under top weight (11st12) in Newbury's Ladbrokes Trophy is misleading, he was 30 lengths back crossing the line. Usually jumps well, but can make the odd error and has unseated twice. Decent ground seems to suit best. Unlikely candidate, but the fences might suit and you never know in this race. 

8 - Battleoverdoyen  -3012F  9yo  11st6lb  Gordon Elliott (Irish)  100/1  1/10

This will be just his 19th career start, of which 14 have been over fences, winning 5 (placed 2), he's mostly raced at trips around 2m4-6f under rules and has only raced over 3 miles twice. He beat 2 rivals in 2019, then failed to stay 3m at Cheltenham after that (won a 3m Point). Usually runs in small field contests and couldn't handle things when up against 21 other runners in last summer's valuable Galway plate (2m6f), finishing 55 lengths back 13th. So this and its first run over these fences, could be a shock to the system. Usually a sound jumper, but has fallen twice, including last time out. Any ground. 

9 - Burrows Saint  24-323  9yo  11st5lb  W P Mullins (Irish)  20/1  5/10

Has won 3 from 12 over fences (placed 5) in a career that spans a total of 24. He is a strong traveling type that usually jumps well (always completed) and was 4th (beaten 27 lengths) on his first attempt last year.(every chance jumping the last, but tired badly on the long run in). Races off the same mark again this time, but is set to carry 5lb more on Saturday. He is 15lb better off with the winner Minella Times and 7lb better with the 3rd Any Second Now. He won the Irish National as a Novice back in 2019, but has been quite lightly raced and only won once since. Most have come on the wrong ground (soft /heavy), he's a decent ground performer if you ask me. I'm not totally convinced about his stamina for 4m2f but he has solid e/w claims and if the ground rides close to good, he could be worth a play on the day. 

10 - Mount Ida  13-117  8yo  11st5lb  Gordon Elliott (Irish)  28/1  3/10

A very useful and capable Mare that has won 4 of her 8 starts over fences (placed 3), from a career that amounts to just 16 races to date. Has mostly taken on her own sex in small field graded company, but did win the 21 runner Kim Muir chase (3m2f) at the Cheltenham festival last season, despite not really acting on that track, jumping right handed and getting behind in the first half of that race. She did similar in the Mares chase (2m4f) last month at Cheltenham and finished a disappointing 7th of the 8, some 28 lengths back. She can't afford to jump out right and get behind in this contest, else she could leave herself a mountain to climb. She is usually a safe and sound jumper and has always completed the course. Acts on any ground, but on the soft side suits best. Never gone beyond 3m2f, but shapes like stamina is his forte, so this trip could well suit. 

11 - Longhouse Poet  31-717  8yo  11st4lb  Martin Brassil (Irish)  16/1  5/10

Very lightly raced for an 8yo (14 starts), but has won 2 from 6 over fences (placed 2) and has won all 3 starts at or around 3m, an Irish Point (sole outing in that grade) a decent Beginners chase,(last season) where he beat Run Wild Fred and earlier this year, he won the valuable Thyestes chase at Gowran Park, beating a good field (17 rivals) in the process. All he does is jump (never fallen) gallop and stay, he's generally been kept to soft ground (or heavy), but I'm not convinced it's essential to him really. He is also entered in the Irish National (April 18th), which is where they may go this time. His trainer Martin Brassil won the Thyesetes chase with Numbersixvalverde back in 2005, who then won the Irish National in the same season and took Aintree honours the following year! Trainers can be creatures of habit, so he might do the same with this lad, but if he turns up on Saturday, put him in your long shortlist. He looks tailor made for a National, but which one and what year? 

12 - Fiddlerontheroof  23-122  8yo  11st4lb  Colin Tizzard  14/1  6/10

A useful progressvie sort that has got better since stepping up to 3m and beyond. He is not bred to get 3m, but the further he goes, the better he seems to be. His 20 race career stats will tell you that he's won 2 times from 10 over fences, but he's been placed in the other 8 (2nd 7 times). Most of those have come in small field contests, but his best effort came in the Ladbrokes trophy at Newbury (good to soft 3m2f against 20 rivals), when he was 2nd (beaten half a length), he would have won in a few more strides. That run suggests he is a perfect candidate for this, providing he stays the extra mile. He jumps really well (never fallen), is a strong traveler, which can certainly help in this race, he can cope with any ground, but the better it rides, the more I think it will suit, he has a touch of class and there is more improvement to come. With a trouble free passage and him being able to handle the fences (can't see why not), he is high up in my thoughts, providing it doesn't ride too soft. 

13 - Two For Gold  3U-112  9yo  11st3lb  Kim Bailey  40/1  3/10

A  very useful and capable sort, that has so far won 6 from 13 over fences (placed in another 5) the only times he's been out of the picture was in last year's Ladbrokes trophy (pulled up) and over these big fences in the Topham trophy (2m5f Unseated) last spring. It wasn't a jumping error here, he was hanging and his rider fell off, as they tried to negotiate the canal turn. He is usually a sound enough jumper and has never fallen to date. He has won over 3m and does threaten to stay further as well. He is in very good form this season, possibly the best so far in his career, but his best efforts have come in slow ground over shorter (2m5-6f) and in smaller field contests as well. I'd like to think he is an outsider with e/w claims, as he's tough, genuine, jumps and he tries, but there are questions about this distance and he might get a bit behind if they go quick. 

14 - Santini  3P-428  10yo  11st2lb  Polly Gundry  33/1  2/10

Was considered a Gold Cup contender and has actually ran in the last 3 of them. An excellent 2nd in 2020, was followed by a dismal run when pulled up last year, he fared a little better recently, but still finished a long way behind the runaway winner A Plus Tard (31 lengths 8th). He has the ability to be a big player, but it will be entirely up to him, he certainly has his quirks now, but this race and the fences (never been over them), just might spark an interest perhaps. He's only had 18 career races, which is nothing for a horse of his class at his age, he's won 3 from 13 over fences (placed 6), but does this character have another win in him? Who knows! If he fancies it and takes to the fences, he might just run a big race. I think the old style National would have been more suitable, horses like him (quirky) won a lot more back in the day, how he will cope with this newer modern race though, it's really hard to say. He's never fallen, he looks like an out and out stayer, but will he have the pace to keep him in contention during the race? 

15 - Samcro  602803  10yo  11st1lb  Gordon Elliott (Irish)  66/1  1/10

Won 3 from 14 over fences (placed 4), but apart from winning a 3m Irish Point (2016), he has not yet won beyond 2m5f. Tried 3m under rules twice and hasn't stayed! A bright prospect in his youth (won first 8 career races), he was Grade 1 class back then, he has slowly gone downhill in recent seasons and looks a shadow of that though now. This is a complete leap of faith, but you never know. Could go for the 2m5f Topham on Friday, which would be much more his ideal distance I feel. Acts on any ground. 

16 - Farclas  425-U2  8yo  11st1lb  Gordon Elliott (Irish)  22/1  3/10 

A useful staying handicap chaser, that finished 5th in this race last year (beaten 29 lengths) he shouldered just 10st3lb back then (off a mark of 146), but will have to carry 11lb more this time (race off 152)! He's gone up a little in the weights now, due a fair effort when 2nd to Run Wild Fred at Navan last time out (beaten 7 lengths in the valuable Troytown, 17 ran). He had unseated his rider on his debut prior to that and has not been on the racecourse for 139 days coming here. Who am I to argue with Mr Elliott, but is 1 completed run this season enough (4 months ago), an ideal build for a race such as this? Anyway, this lad has won 3 from 10 over fences (placed 3), but all wins have come at trips from 2m to 2m3f! He has some solid placed form in big field handicaps from 2m5f to 3m and in this race last year, but he struggles to get his head in front when it matters most. Decent ground suits him best, he does jump well, he is a grey and therefore, easy to pick out in this race, he is likely to run a sound race, so he could at least give you some fun if you play. 

17 - Escaria Ten  23P-82  8yo  11st1lb  Gordon Elliott (Irish)  10/1  5/10

Yet another Elliott runner with a decent enough chance. This lad has won just once from 7 over fences (placed 3), in a career that just spans 13 races to date. Experience may be lacking, but there is no doubt about his credentials for this, he is a strong staying sort, that jumps well mostly (the odd error only) keeps galloping and is the type that will win some sort of National one day. Is this just a little too soon in his career? Maybe. He has only won Novice contests and does lack big field handicap form, which is not ideal, though he did show up well in the Thyestes chase on his first start (for 297) this season in January though (8th of 18, beaten 24 lengths, by Longhouse Poet) and he didn't get the clearest of runs that day. A close 2nd to Any Second Now last time out, possibly enhances his claims I'd say. A solid 3rd in last year's 3m6f National Hunt chase at the festival, proves that this horse does stay, he was below par in the Irish National (3m5f) after that though (less than 3 weeks later), he Pulled up, but it might have come a little too soon. Needs cut in the ground. 

18 - Good Boy Bobby   -31217  9yo  10st13lb  Nigel Twiston-Davies  40/1  3/10

Seems as good, if not, better than ever this season, winning a couple of decent handicaps at Wetherby (2m4f and 3m) and was a short head 2nd to the useful Aye Right in the Rehearsal chase at Newcastle in between them. He wasn't as good at Kempton last time (30 lengths 7th of 14), so the handicapper may have him now. He is a genuine and consistent sort, that jumps well (never fallen), has won 4 from 12 over fences (placed 4), he has not yet been tested beyond 3m, most wins have come at shorter, but he seems to be staying stronger as he's ageing and he might well see this trip out. He acts on any ground. If he takes to the fences he could go well for quite a while, will he last home though and defy the handicapper 1 more time. 

19 - Lord Du Mesnil  -UP26P  9yo  10st13lb  Richard Hobson  100/1  1/10

Mud loving staying chaser that has won 4 from 27 over fences (placed 8), all at 3m to 3m4f, he does stay further still, but in 3 attempts over the national fences, he's fallen a long way short of his regular parks course form. The best he's done here is a 45 lengths 9th of 18 over 2m5f in the Grand Sefton back in Dec 20, he pulled up in the National itself a year ago (good to soft ground deemed to be too quick!) and was tailed off when pulling up in the Becher chase on very soft ground back in early december too. Jumping is indifferent now and he likes to front run, but it's hard to see him doing that in this race on Saturday. 

20 - Coko Beach  46P644  7yo 10st13lb  Gordon Elliott (Irish)  50/1  3/10

Quirky and not the easiest to predict, but has won 2 from 13 over fences (placed 3) and is capable enough on a going day. Fell once over hurdles, but has an unblemished record over fences, is generally a safe and proficient jumper, the question is will he stay? His wins have come around 3m1f, which includes a win in last year's 18 runner Thyestes chase, where he beat stable companion Run Wild Fred, who was receiving a little weight. He didn't appear to last home in last year's Irish national (3m5f, 7th of 28, beaten 20 lengths) and it was similar story in the National trial (3m4f) at Punchestown 2 starts back, when he weakened after leading and came home 7 lengths 4th behind Death Duty. Well beat last of 4 (59 lengths) behind both Any Second Now and Escaria Ten last time out, it's hard to see him reversing that form, but he did the donkey work that day and this will be a totally different test. He is in the Irish equivalent on the 18th and may be better off in that, he is only 7yo, which is not a great recent stat, the last horse to win that age was way back in 1940! 

21 - De Rasher Counter  4P/2-4  10yo  10st12lb  Emma Lavelle  40/1  3/10

When he won the Ladbrokes trophy at Newbury back in Nov 2019 (beating 23 rivals in the process) he looked an ideal candidate for this race, but he's had problems since then though and has only been seen 4 times since. He hasn't run too badly a few times, but is he the same horse as back then? Only 1 run this season, saw him shape ok (to 3 out) at Newbury in February, it was only a 5 runners contest though and he finished 34 lengths back at the end. He should improve greatly for that, but this is a completely different test. In his prime he was a sound jumper and won 3 from 10 over fences (placed 2), his future looked bright as a 7yo, but at what stage is he now? I don't know what to expect, but it would be nice to see him run well. Any ground is suitable and he should like the big galloping flat track.

22 - Caribean Boy  P-0F1P  8yo  10st12lb  Nicky Henderson  66/1  1/10 

The maestro trainer has never won this feature, it's hard to see this lad changing that stat. He may have won 3 times from 11 over fences (placed 2) and won once over 3m as well, that came 2 starts back under 11st12lb at Kempton, but it wasn't the strongest staying contest. He might be better over 3m now, having previously been kept at shorter trips, but this will be over a 1m2f further and will be in a much more competitive, deeper and stronger race. He fell on his previous start and pulled up last time out, he also ran over these fences last year (2m5f Topham) and after a bad mistake at fence 11, he dropped away and was pulled up. 

23 - Court Maid  9-P452  9yo  10st12lb  Henry De Bromhead (Irish)  66/1  3/10

This mare can be quite useful and capable on her day, but she doesn't always produce and has disappointed once or twice. Her chase records reads ok, she's won 3 from 9 so far (placed 2) and has won a 20 runner, 3m5f contest in soft as well. She ran alright in last year's Irish national (good ground), but came home 24 lengths back in 9th (28 ran), that ground may have been a shade too lively, so I guess it reads better still. She has been kept to shorter trips this season (over fences) but has shaped quite well and also ran well in a Grade 2 hurdle over 3m at Gowran (5th of 9, beaten 26 length) but lacked the pace of those good horses in that. She has been sold privately recently and has also changed yards too, the last mare to win this was Nickel Coin way back in 1951, she has a tough task, but not an impossible one, if she is to emulate her. 

24 - Kildisart  2/37-4  10yo  10st11lb  Ben Paulling  33/1  3/10

Fairly lightly raced for his age (20 career starts) and only ran once in the last 18 months. That came in a 2m4f race at Newbury in early March, he'd been off for 462 days, but ran well to finish 4th of 10 there. He looked a good national prospect back in 2019/20, he won well here on the Mildmay track in the spring of 2019 (beating 17 rivals in a 3m handicap chase) and the following season at the Cheltenham festival, he was 2nd of 23 in the Ultima chase. Late that Autumn, he ran ok in the Ladboroke trophy at Newbury (23 lengths 7th of 18) behind Cloth Cap, when the ground may have been a bit too quick, he had a slight setback after and was given plenty of time to get over that. That run at Newbury suggests he can still win races, this is as tough as it gets though and he's been out of match practice in recent times. A sound and reliable jumper that has never fallen and has won 3 from 12 over fences (placed 3) to date, he hasn't run beyond 3m2f, but I think he could be ok. Needs cut in the ground (not too much). A big run is not impossible but a win, well who knows? 

25 - Discorama  257-52  9yo  10st11lb  Paul Nolan (Irish)  33/1  3/10

 A pretty useful and capable staying chaser on his day, but in 12 starts over fences, he's only won 1 race (placed 6). He is definitely frustrating, that there is no doubt, placed efforts at the Cheltenham festival (3 times), shows what he can do when things go right, but he tends to find 1 or 2 too good. He was 2nd over 2m4f Hurdles back in 2018 (Martin Pipe), then 2nd in the National Hunt Chase (4m) the following year, he then came 3rd in the Ultima in 2020 (Kildisart in 2nd) and he was 2nd last time out as well! He hasn't run too much since March 2020 (just 5 times) and ran in this race last year, he looked like a player as they turned for home, but he faded and finished 45 lengths behind at the line(7th). His stamina gave way late last year, I fear the same may happen again, he is entered in the shorter Irish version (3m5f) and would have a better chance over there. He can  make mistakes at the fences, but he's only fallen once. Needs softish ground ideally.  

26 - Top Ville Ben  P5F312  10yo  10st11lb  Philip Kirby  50/1  2/10

 A 4 times chase winner from 13 starts over fences (placed 4), his record isn't too bad, he likes to dominate when possible, but there will be plenty of competition up front. His form is at mostly 3m, at which he does stay very well, this distance is a complete unknown though, it's a mile further than he's ever gone. He did run here in December, when took part in the Becher chase (3m2f), he was jumping really well at or near the head of affairs, until he took a crunching fall at fence 12. If he remembers he could be very risky on Saturday, but if he thinks wiseley because of it, he might go well for a long way. Needs soft ground and needs to jump a little better, if he's going to have any say, I wouldn't rule him out completely, but I very much doubt I'd play. 

27 - Enjoy D'Allen  23-735  8yo  10st11lb  Ciaran Murphy (Irish)  12/1  5/10

Has taken well to fences (run 10 times, won 2, placed in 5) and has improved a great deal, since a switch of yards back at the turn of 2020/21. In his current surroundings, his rating has risen from 119 to 148, winning his first 2 starts and running very well, when placed in his 4 other starts over fences since. They include a 4 lengths 3rd in the Irish National (3m5f) in which 28 horses ran and an excellent 3rd in the valuable and extremely competitive 28 runner Paddy Power chase, which was run at Leopardstown in December. Either side of those races, he's performed with real credit over hurdles as well. He probably is still improving, he stays well, acts on any going, jumps well (not fallen), so he ticks many boxes, but he's never been away from Ireland and not seen these fences as well. If he takes to the venue and the fences, I think he will be a big player on the day. 

28 - Anibale Fly  -39098  12yo  10st11lb  A J Martin (Irish)  40/1  2/10

Was a high class chaser back a few years ago and was placed twice in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, he was 4th in 2018, but bettered that with a 2nd the following year. He has also ran in 3 Grand Nationals, the first was back in 2018, he came 4th to Tiger Roll that year, then finished 5th to him in 2019, he wasn't here in 2020 and Pulled up in 2021. His form has definitely dipped since those good times, but he still retains a deal of ability , he hasn't run too badly recently over much shorter (2m4f) and should enjoy the step back in trip on Saturday. Only won 3 from 25 over fences (placed 6) and his last win came some time ago in 2017. He has a fair completion record (1 fall) and might jump round once again on Saturday, whether he will be anywhere near the principles though, I doubt but who am I to say. Needs some cut in the ground. 

29 - Dingo Dollar  12-435  10yo  10st11lb  Sandy Thompson  50/1   2/10

Grand sort, who surprisingly only won 3 times over fences from 17 starts (placed 5) and has been in good form again this season. Was 2nd in last year's Scottish national (4m), so stamina is not an issue and has been placed in several competitive handicaps at or around 3m down the years prior to that. He can perform on most ground conditions, though decent ground suits best, usually he is a safe and sound jumper and he's only fallen just once. He did race over these fences in the Grand Sefton in Dec 2020, but he could get near the front and he pulled up. He likes to race very handy or dominate, there will be plenty of others trying that. 

30 - Freewheelin Dylan  1-46U  10yo  10st10lb  Dermot A McLoughlin (Irish)  50/1  1/10

Is clearly a useful chaser, as he's won 6 from 21 over fences (placed 3) to date, most were at a much lower level though, but he was a big priced winner (150/1) of the Irish National (3m5f) last year He made the running that day, which is the way he has to race, he won't get his own way on Saturday though and a return to the Irish national (on the 18th) may best suit him. Must have good or decent ground, not soft.  

31 - Class Conti  40-P90  10yo  10st10lb  W P Mullins (Irish)  100/1  1/10 

Has won 2 from 18 over fences (placed 3), but only once since joining Mullins from France in early 2019 (1st outing for him). There have been flashes of form for him and in big field competitive handicaps as well, but generally speaking, it's fair to say he's a bit on the disappointing side. Although only falling once, his jumping can be a little suspect at times and although hampered midway last year in the National, he dropped tamely away around a mile from home, he completed (in his own time) finishing 127 lengths behind. Likes the mud. Would be a surprise winner. 

32 - Noble Yeats  469P29  7yo  10st10lb  Emmet Mullins (Irish)  33/1  1/10

A promising enough youngster in this his Novice season, but he probably lacks the experience for a race such as this and the last 7yo to take this, was way back in 1940. Has won 1 of 7 starts over fences (placed 1) that came over just 2m2f, he was 2nd in a small field 3m chase and has run ok in a couple of big field handicaps over 3m as well, but he weakened late in them, this is 1m2f further on Saturday. Jumps ok, any ground.

33 - Mighty Thunder  21-4PP  9yo  10st10lb  Lucinda Russell  33/1  4/10

Very progressive and successful over fences last season, won the Edinburgh National at Musselburgh (4m1f), followed that with an excellent 2nd in the Midlands one at Uttoxeter (4m2f), then won the Scottish (4m) version after that, all within the space of about 10 or 11 weeks. That showed how tough he is or can be, just to do that, but he may be paying for those fantastic efforts this season. In 3 outings to date, he showed a little on his first start, but he pulled up in both the Welsh (ground too testing) and the Edinburgh nationals and it was said he had a wind issue after the last run. There are questions surrounding his well being now, but if he comes back to form, he could really run well. Lucinda won this with One For Arthur back in 2017, so she knows what it takes to win this, this lad usually jumps well (never fallen) stays forever, he can cope with any ground, he has 4 wins from 9 over fences (placed 1), there is still potential for some improvement, but his health is a slight worry for now. 

34 - Cloth Cap  P-46R3  10yo 10st10lb  Jonjo O'Neill  25/1  3/10 

He bolted up in last season's Ladbrokes trophy at Newbury (3m2f) beating 17 rivals by 10 lengths or more and went on everybody's shortlist for this race last year. It was a great trial for this race and he backed it up when next seen at Kelso (won by 7 lengths). He went off 11/2 fav last year and was prominent for quite a long way, but he did stop very quickly and was pulled up 3 fences from home. His jockey suggested it was his wind, so he had a wind Op soon after that. This season, promise was shown on his first 2 starts, but things haven't gone quite as well in both starts since. There may well have been excuses, but the acid test comes again on Saturday, if he gets decent ground, can jump well and race prominently, then he might be around in the last half mile. There has to be a slight doubt about him now though (stamina wise), but we just don't know with him really. Best on a decent surface (needs good really). he is usually a sound jumper (only fall was over hurdles) and has won 4 from 16 over fences (placed 6) to date. 

35 - Snow Leopardess  46-111  10yo  10st9lb  Charlie Longsdon  8/1  5/10

This mare hasn't stopped improving this season and she might have more to offer as well. To date she's won 4 from 9 over fences (placed 3) and her jumping has stood her in good stead. She was a useful staying handicapper last season, but only managed to win 1 race, she's put the record straight this time, she is unbeaten and won all 3. From a decent contest at Bangor in November, she jumped really well to win the Becher Chase (3m2f) over the big fences here (beating 20 rivals), she then beat a good field in a Listed mares contest at Exeter, drawing right away to win by 12 lengths. It seems the further she goes, the better or more effective she seems to be.  She is untested beyond 3m2f, so does have another mile to travel in this, the trip may or may not find her out, but she is honest, jumps well and is bound to run a good race. She needs some cut in the ground to show her best, but can cope with better ground. The markets have really come for her in the last 24 hours or so and she is becoming too short a price (if you ask me) now. The last mare to win was Nickel Coin back in 1951, can she put that 70 year wait to bed on Saturday and make some history for herself? It's possible..  

36 - Augusta Gold  0-8PP2  9yo  10st9lb  W P Mullins (Irish)  66/1  1/10

A capable mare on her day, that has won 2 from 14 over fences (placed 8) has form over 3m4f, but has never won beyond 2m5f. She was a close 2nd in the 18 runner Irish national trial at Punchestown back in Feb 2020, when she probably was at her best, but although she won a 5 runner event 1st time out the following season, her form and her jumping, have both dipped since. Errors are a lot more common with her now, so how she will cope with these fences and the nature of this race, well that's anybody's guess really. She came 11th in last year's Irish National (27 lengths back) and this is a much tougher race to win. Any ground suits. 

37 - Phoenix Way  4-721F  9yo 10st9lb Harry Fry  50/1  1/10

This 9yo is obviously fragile, as he's only run 12 times all told, 7 have been over fences, of which he's won 2 (placed 1), but they were over shorter than 3m (2m-2m5f), the only time he's won over that trip is over hurdles and when he won a Point at the start of his career. I'm not convinced he will last home here and he can take the odd liberty at the fences as well. Cut in the ground suits. Too risky surely.

38 - Deise Aba  P-22P2  9yo  10st 8lb  Philip Hobbs  66/1  1/10 

A 3 time winner over fences, from 12 starts (placed 3), but apart from winning a 2 horse contest at Catterick, has done all his best work at Sandown. Was 2nd over hurdles here back in November though, so he has some course form at least, albeit over the smaller obstacles. Ran well in the Kim Muir (5th) at Cheltenham in 2020, but was pulled up in that race last year. Stays well, as he showed when runner up over 3m5f in Sandown's London National early in December, but pulled up in the Welsh national 3 weeks later. Not the most consistent, can be quirky, not always the most fluent jumper, but hasn't fallen yet. Cut in the ground suits.

39 - Blaklion  6-511P  13yo 10st 8lb  Dan Skelton  50/1  2/10 

Age hasn't stopped this evergreen lad from completing a double already this season and in this race last year, he was the highest UK finisher back in 6th (beaten 37 lengths). I suspect it will be tougher for him this time, but he could still run an honorable race. A 6 time winner over fences, from 26 outings (6 placed), he's won over the fences here before (3m2f Becher Chase) but it was way back in 2017, when he was only aged 8, he was also 4th in the 2017 National, but was Brought Down at the first in 2018. Softish ground will suit him and he could jump round once again (last and only fall, was way back in 2015). Ran poorly last time but it was very heavy, almost bottomless at Haydock and he deserved an off day. There will be more behind him than in front. 

40 - Poker Party  43/00P  10yo  10st8lb  Henry De Bromhead (Irish)  66/1  2/10

Was quite a promising youngster a few years back (2018-2020) but had a minor setback and missed 666 days prior to a return this season. He showed up well enough on his first outing, which was a valuable 28 runner contest (weakened 3 out, finished 13th) but he then struggled in deep ground over hurdles and was always rear and having a spin on the cross country chase at Cheltenham. He has no chance on those last bits of form, but if he still retains the ability, then considering he was a Kerry National winner (3m) and placed 4th in the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown as well (27 ran, 3m), they show what this lad was capable of, the question is, is he the same horse now? Has won 3 from 14 over fences (placed 3), the furthest is over 3m, stamina has to be a worry and whether he can take to the fences as well. Not the most fluent, but never fallen. 

**The cut off line is at 40, so those below are unlikely to get a run. Those declared on Thursday between 41 to 44 will be the reserves only and all of those left below them will be balloted out the same day. I will be briefer on the next and last 10, as very few (if any) are likely to get a run, unless they get lucky**

**Gordon Elliott has stated that he will run Number 8 Battleoverdoyen on Thursday instead (Topham Trophy) and if that happens to be the case, then Number 41 Death Duty, who is also trained by him and runs in the same ownership as well, will sneak in at the bottom. All those below Battleoverdoyen on the racecard, will therefore shift up by 1 place** 

41 - Death Duty  6-5716  11yo  10st7lb  Gordon Elliott (Irish)  33/1  4/10 

Likely to sneak in now and he cannot be ruled out. Once a very promising novice hurdler and chaser in the first half of his career, winning 10 times in his first 14 races, his career never really took off after though, but there is still enough ability in him. He showed that on his first 2 starts this season, where he came 5th of 28 at Leopardstown (only beaten 7 lengths) and then 7th of 18 at Gowran Park. They were both valuable and competitive handicaps and he was far from disgraced in them both. He then went and won at Punchestown, in a decent 3m4f contest on testing ground, he backed those efforts up then at Cheltenham, with a 12 lengths 6th (of 24) in the Ultima chase (ground too good on day 1). He looks back in good form again now, hence Elliott wants him to get into the race. He jumps well (1 fall), seems to stay well, needs softish ground, it's about the fences, the track and luck on the day. 

**The next 4 are likely to be the reserves**

42 - Domaine De L'Isle  1-P420  9yo  10st7lb  Sean Curran  100/1  1/10 

Won 7 from 20 over fences (placed 1), has never fallen, yet to win beyond 3m2f, but threatens to stay much further, though he was well back in Newcastle's 4m Eider Chase and he might be best on a decent surface as well (can handle soft). He has form over these fences, he was 4th in December's Becher Chase (3m2f). Beaten 22 lengths by Snow Leopardess, he stayed on well at the end there, suggesting further would suit him. 

43 - Eclair Surf  8-F312  8yo  10st6lb  Emma Lavelle  14/1  4/10

A very lightly raced sort, that has only 14 career starts to date, he has won 3 from 9 over fences (placed 3) and there is definitely more to come. The further he goes and the slower the ground rides, the better he seems to be, he likes to get out in front, jump and gallop and will try to run his rivals into the ground. Nothing could get near him at Warwick in January, he bolted up (by 15 lengths in soft ground) in the 3m5f Classic Chase, he wasn't quite so forceful in the 4m Eider at Newcastle (goodish ground) in February, but ran a sound race to finish 2nd anyway. If he got into the race on Saturday, he could be an interesting front running candidate.

44 - Fortescue  -37231  8yo  10st6lb  Henry Daly  33/1  3/10

Should he get a run, he wouldn't look out of place in fairness to him. Has plenty of good handicap form at 3m to 3m2f and although yet to be tested beyond those trips, his style of racing does suggest that he will get further. Gradual improvement over the last few seasons, has seen this lad win 6 from 14 over fences (placed 5), he is a very consistent sort, plus he jumps fairly well (never fallen) and does keep trying when he is asked. Beat Fiddlerontheroof last time at Ascot and was an excellent 3rd to the very useful Royal Pagaille (5th in Gold Cup) at Haydock prior to that. There's more to come from him. Needs cut in the ground ideally. 

45 - Commodore  2U9P-1  10yo  10st5lb  Venetia Williams  33/1  2/10

Would be a surprise runner, but should lady luck present him with an opportunity to race, then like a few others, this grey will be prominent from the outset. He has won 4 from 14 over fences (placed only 1), his form is at 3m to 3m2f, he's yet to go beyond that, but may well stay further, the word soft has to appear in the going report, he is fresh as paint with just 1 easy win at Cheltenham this season, but will he get in? Unseated once.

**The last 5 have little or no chance of getting a run, to be fair, so I shall say little about them**

46 - School Boy Hours  43-61P  9yo  10st5lb  Noel Meade (Irish)  33/1  3/10

Run 11 times over fences, but only won 1 (placed 5), that win came in the valuable 28 runner Paddy Power chase (3m Leopardstown Dec). In the Kim Muir at Cheltenham (5/1 fav), he was right there, but stumbled on landing and almost came down 4 fences out (eased, pulled up). May head to Fairyhouse for the Irish national on the 18th. An improving type, but no form yet beyond 3m. Softish suits. Fallen twice,1 was over hurdles. 

47 - Romain De Senam  B143-P  10yo  10st5lb  David Pipe  100/1  1/10

Has won 7 from 32 over fences (placed 6), but the furthest he's won over is 2m7f and that was against 3 rivals on good ground. Most of his form is over shorter, he's yet to prove he stays 3m, but that's as far as he's likely to get. Decent ground suits best, but soft ground is ok over shorter trips. A useful and pacey sort on his day, but it will take a leap of faith to fancy him for this, that's if he even gets in! Sound jumper, unseated once.

48 - Roi Mage  134751  10yo  10st3lb  Patrick Griffin (Irish)  66/1  1/10

Has already run 46 times, 34 have been over fences, over which he's won 8 (placed 12), all bar his last 2 runs were in France, he beat 4 rivals at Gowran Park last time over 3m2f. Soft ground clearly suits him and he does seem to stay very well, he ran ok at 3m6f in France, but most runs were over much shorter back then. Fell twice early in his career, but seems a proficient jumper these days.  

49 - Full Back  -78120  7yo  10st3lb  Gary Moore  100/1  1/10

A little too young for my liking, the last 7yo winner was way back in 1940. This lad has very few miles on the clock also, with just 14 career starts to date. Has won 3 from 10 over fences in fairness (placed 3) and is quite a useful type, he usually jumps (never fallen) and stays well, but his form is at trips around 3m2f. Well beaten in last month's Ultima Chase at Cheltenham (25 lengths 13th), this will be much tougher again. Soft suits.

50 - Smokin Gun  6F1P38  9yo  10st3lb  Gordon Elliott (Irish)  100/1  1/10

Capable on his day, but is a very inconsistent type and very difficult to predict. Has won 2 from 17 over fences (placed 3) and 1 of them was over 3m5f, his best form seems reserved for decent ground, which he might well get on Saturday, he has a fat chance of running though and may have to wait for the Irish race on the 18th instead. 

That is it folks. I won't be giving you a verdict, but I’ll do that on Saturday to subscribers. I want to see how the final declarations look first and how the ground will ride on the big day. Hope you enjoy the read and can make sense of it all, use these views as a guide, if you like, but this race is still a bit of a lottery and anything can still happen on the day.
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