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Saturday TV Tips and Trends: 4th May 2024

Thursday, May 2, 2024

A huge Saturday and Sunday this weekend as it's Guineas weekend with the first two Classics of the season which means the new flat turf season is well and truly started.

We've four races - including the 2,000 Guineas - to take in at Newmarket  on Saturday, plus the ITV cameras are also heading to Goodwood and Thirsk to take in two more LIVE races - plenty to look forward to!

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at SUREWIN with all the key trends, plus our free horse racing tips, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.10 – William Hill British EBF Ellen Chaloner Stakes (Listed Race) (Formerly The Kilvington Stakes) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f RTV

10/10 – Aged between 3-5
10/10 – Won over 5f or 6f before
9/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
8/10 – Won between 1-2 times before
8/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Didn’t win last time out
7/10 – Placed favourites
7/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
6/10 – Aged 3 years-old
5/10 – Came from stalls 11 (3) or 7 (2)
4/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by William Haggas (2 of the last 5)
3 of the last 7 winners came from stall 11
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

Note: The race was formerly run at Nottingham from 2021 back

Best Bet: UNEQUAL LOVE
Danger: STAR GUEST

1.45 – William Hill Extra Place Races Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 6f ITV

10/11 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/11 - Won 3+ times before
10/11 - Had won over 6f before
9/11 - Didn’t win last time out
8/11 - Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/11 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/11 - Returned 13/2 or bigger
7/11 - Ran at Newmarket before (Rowley)
7/11 - Unplaced favourites
7/11 - Carried 9-3 or more in weight
6/11 - Rated 100+
3/11 - Winning favourites
2/11 - Trained by Richard Fahey
0/11 - Winners from stalls 1 or 2
6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9.5/1

Best Bet: ROHAAN
Danger: APOLLO ONE

2.20 – Suffolk Stakes Handicap Cl2 1m1f ITV

17/18 – Had won at least twice before
17/18 – Had won over at least a mile before
15/18 – Priced 12/1 or shorter
15/18 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
14/18 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
14/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/18 – Rated between 90 and 96
10/18 – Returned between 9/1 and 12/1 in the betting
10/18 – Aged 4 years-old
9/18 – Having their first run of the season
7/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Irish bred
3/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 - Winning favourites
2/18 - Trained by Andrew Balding
Just 1 winner from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 15 runnings

Best Bet: MR PROFESSOR
Danger: BOPEDRO

2.55 – William Hill Palace House Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV

19/21 – Won 3 or more times before
18/21 – Had won over 5f before
18/21 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
18/21 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
18/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
16/21 – Had run at Newmarket before
15/21– Aged 5 or younger
15/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/21 – Rated between 108 and 114
12/21 – Placed favourites
10/21 – Won last time out
7/21 – Winning favourites
5/21 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/21 – Trained by Bryan Smart
2/21 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of last 3 runnings)
Just 4 placed horses from stall 1 in the last 16 runnings
5  of the last 7 runnings went to 4 year-olds
8 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 2-7 (inc)
Vadream (7/1) won the race in 2023

Best Bet: MITBAAHY
Danger: TWILIGHT CALLS

3.35 – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV

21/22 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
20/22 – Had won over at least 7f before
20/22 – Had won a Group race before
20/22 – Had won between 2-5 times before
18/22 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
17/22 – Won last time out
17/22 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
15/22 – Having their first run of the season
14/22 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
14/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/22 – Placed favourites
12/22 – Won by an Irish-based yard
12/22 – Irish bred
9/22 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
9/22 – Had won over a mile before
9/22 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 3
6/22 – Winning favourites
7/22 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
5/22 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
3/22 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
9 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 9.5/1

Other 2,000 Guineas Facts

- Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019
- Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016

Best Bet: CITY OF TROY
Danger: NOTABLE SPEECH

Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – William Hill Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV

11/11 – Didn’t win last time out
9/11 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/11 – Won 2 or more times before
8/11 – Yet to race at the track
8/11 – Horse from stall 1 placed in the top 3
7/11 – Winners from stalls 1 or 5
7/11 – Favourites placed in the top 3
7/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Horse from stall 5 placed in the top 3
7/11 – Unplaced last time out
6/11 – Aged 4 years-old
6/11 – Won over a mile before
5/11 – Horse from stall 7 placed in the top 3
4/11 – Winners from stall 1
3/11 – Ran a Newmarket last time out
2/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

Best Bet: ORCHID BLOOM
Danger: CHOISYA

Thirsk Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.40 – Vickers.Bet Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m ITV

11/12 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
11/12 – Aged 6 or younger
11/12 – Won at least twice before
11/12 – Didn’t win last time out
10/12 – Drawn in stalls 7 or higher
10/12 – Won over at least 1m before
10/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/12 – Rated between 87-94 (inc)
10/12 – Unplaced last time out
8/12 – Won between 2-4 times
7/12 – Winners from a double-figure draw
6/12 – Had run at the track before (3 won)
2/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Michael Dods (2 of the last 7)
7 of the last 10 winners returned 13/2 or bigger in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/1

Note: The 2018 running was staged at Wetherby

Best Bet: THUNDER ROAR
Danger: PISANELLO

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