There was no preview last week as I didn’t really fancy anything on either Friday or Saturday so the last write up covered the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot, which seems a long time ago now!

I fancied the favourite in that race but I thought he was just about short enough when I was recommending him at around 7/2 so I couldn’t quite believe he went off 7/4. In the end he was far too keen so he did extremely well to stay on for 4th, especially as he did best of those that weren’t held up. His chance was rather obvious though so he’s not nominated as a horse to follow going forward.

This Week’s Race

It’s a weekend of big races and big handicaps and it’s the mile handicap on Saturday’s Sandown card that should present the best betting opportunity. The ‘Coral Challenge’ is due off at 2.25 (at Sandown) and whilst it normally attracts a much bigger field, there are only 10 runners this year, which hopefully makes it a slightly more straight forward puzzle.

Sandown Pointers

The mile course at Sandown can often favour front runners, especially on fast ground when it can be difficult to make up ground in the relatively short straight. The softer the ground gets, the fairer it tends to be from a pace perspective.

On the draw front, higher draws do surprisingly well. The extra ground covered by those drawn wide tends to be negated by the fact they are likely to get a clear run. Anything buried away on the inside normally faces issues trying to make their challenge and hard luck stories are quite common, especially if the early leaders start dropping back through the field.

Repeat Victory Could Be On The Cards

Last year’s winner Perotto bids to land this race for the second year running and although he’s 8lbs higher this time around, last year’s renewal looked a stronger race and he showed this sort of mark isn’t beyond him when finishing a close 3rd in the Royal Hunt Cup last time out, on his first run of the season.

The one thing that might count against Perotto is Friday’s forecast rain. It seems the course has been well watered as it’s already predominantly ‘good’ rather than good to firm and on Friday the course looks set to be hit by around 8mm of rain. Assuming that forecast is correct, we’re probably looking at something along the lines of good to soft, with maybe some good in places.

Perotto hasn’t run very often on ground that is softer than good and he’s clearly thought to be a better horse on faster ground, and the formbook backs that up.

It might not quite qualify as a repeat win if Classic lands this but he was victorious on this card last year, winning a 7f handicap. He took the notable scalp of Novus in that, who has since rated 21lbs higher.

That wasn’t his only strong piece of form. Next time out, again over 7f, he suffered a nightmare passage through and still finished a good 4th, behind three horses who would win on one of their next two starts.

He was stepped up to a mile on his final run of last season and he finished an excellent 2nd to Crack Shot, a horse that would win a 16 runner handicap on his next start. The 3rd has also won twice since so it’s no worry at all that Classic is 2lbs higher here.

Classic has since had two runs this season. As with many Richard Hannon runners, he very much needed the run when extremely weak in the betting at Sandown on seasonal debut. He stepped up massively on that effort though when an extremely unlucky 2nd last time out, again here at Sandown, sent off at big odds.

That was one of the worst rides of the season that day to get Classic beat and he’s is just 1lb higher here, for all this is a stronger race than that was.

Rain Could Be Against Others

Holloway Boy is third best in the early betting but his best form is not only on fast ground, it’s all come at Royal Ascot. He won the Chesham Stakes as a 2yo, he was 4th in the Jersey Stakes last season and last time out he was a better than the bare form 5th in the Royal Hunt Cup. This course probably won’t suit as well as Ascot and he might struggle if heavy rain arrives but he’s one to look out for if returning to Ascot on fast ground again this season.

Point Lynas seems to be the only pace angle in the race but he normally sets a strong gallop regardless, as he did two starts ago when winning at York. On fast ground he’d probably have a decent chance of making all in this as he ran well in a 7f Group 3 last time out and he could still rate higher but the only time he ran in a handicap on soft ground he only beat one runner home. The ground is very unlikely to be ‘soft’ but he does seem to have been kept to fast ground and he could get caught out if it’s more like good to soft in this.

Market Has Quite A Few Of These Wrong

The market seems to think Two Tempting will confirm last time out form with Dual Identity, where Two Tempting finished just ahead of Classic and half a length in front of Dual Identity, who wasn’t positioned as well and didn’t get a completely clear run at things. Dual Identity loves it here, won’t mind rain, will enjoy a stronger pace than last time out and his trainer is in excellent form right now. He doesn’t appeal to reverse form with Classic, but he probably should do so with Two Tempting and should probably be a marginally shorter price than Two Tempting, rather than a couple of points bigger in the betting.

Another who is too big a price, who has been nibbled at early since the early decs came out, is Metal Merchant. He started this season with a win over a mile at Newbury and he backed that up with a good 2nd to the subsequent Royal Hunt Cup runner up Sonny Liston. Probably his best run of the season though was his 7th in the Royal Hunt Cup. On the bare form of that race he has it to do to reverse form with Perotto and Holloway Boy but he was in an unfavoured group on that occasion and crucially, the ground would have been far too fast for him there. He’s a smooth traveler, so should be suited by this course and if it comes up good to soft, he should have no problems placing at least.

Even Silent Film is probably too big a price. He was going well in this race last year when badly hampered and his latest 3rd at Epsom has been well advertised since. He’s ideally suited by either good or good to soft ground so conditions should be perfect here too. He can seem a bit paceless/tripless on occasions though and he’s often one to run well without winning in these types of race. He may well finish 4th or 5th here so he shouldn’t be the complete outsider but he doesn’t especially appeal as a bet.

Two More Complete The Field

Cicero’s Gift and Magic Memories complete the field and both are available at big prices.

The former boasts some high level form. He won his first three starts of his career and then never got a run when last seen in the 2023 renewal of the St James’ Palace Stakes. With a clear run he might have finished around 4th which would have seen him finish on the heels of subsequent Group 1 scorer Charyn.

That form is quite eyecatching, but he’s since spent a year on the sidelines and it’s impossible to guess how he’ll fare in a handicap off a mark of 107. Charles Hills has only had one winner having his or her first handicap run after a 60+ day break this season so the percentage call is to oppose the horse after a year off the track.

Magic Memories was a winner of a small field, soft ground, class 4 handicap last time out. He certainly won’t mind any rain but he tends to struggle in higher classes and he’s only 1lb better off than when beaten 1.5 lengths by Dual Identity on his penultimate start so at best he’s probably looking at finishing mid division in this.

Summary

The selection has to be CLASSIC. The key to this horse seems to be avoiding extremes of going and underfoot conditions could be absolutely perfect for him here. He should have won last time out and although this is a better race, the rain might inconvenience some of the main contenders here.

The smaller field should help him avoid so much trouble in running and Point Lynas will hopefully set a good gallop. If that horse gets pulled out because of a change in going that would definitely be a big blow to Classic and any others that want a good pace to aim at.

The early 11/2 that is generally available (as big as 13/2 in a place) looks fair with a couple of bookies paying 4 places but the majority paying just 3. If he gets a clear run through he should be placing at least at a course he’s run well at on several occasions.

Dual Identity is unlikely to be far away from Classic given their form with each other last time out so he has to be considered whilst rain definitely brings Metal Merchant into play. If you don’t mind a saver in your portfolio on this race then that’s definitely the next best horse to be backing at around 7/1 assuming the rain hits.

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