With the Cheltenham Festival looming it's no surprise the quality of the weekend racing takes a slight dip over the next few weekends. That said, we've still plenty of action to enjoy as the ITV cameras head to Newbury to take in two races, with the Greatwood Gold Cup their feature race - a contest the powerful Paul Nicholls yard have won in 8 of the last 15 runnings.

We've also got three races at Doncaster with the Grimthorpe Chase the main event - 15 of the last 50 winners were aged 9 or older, so these two trends are certainly worth having on your side.

The cameras are also at Kelso for four races - the Grade Two bet365 Premier Kelso Hurdle - with 14 of the last 16 winners placed in the top four last time out, this is a key trend to have on side.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at SUREWIN with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

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NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

1.20 – BetVictor Super Boost Has Arrived Veterans´ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Leg 2 of Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m2f110y ITV

13/14 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
12/14 – Won over at least 3m (chase)
9/14 – Favourites unplaced
8/14 – Aged 10 years-old
7/14 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
7/14 – Carried 11-4 or more in weight
3/14 – Won their last race
1/14 – Winning favourites (non in the last 8)
6 of the last 9 winners carried 11st or less
Trainer David Dennis won the race in 2022 and 2023
Trainer David Pipe won the race in 2015 and 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 15/2

SUREWIN BEST BET: SAM BROWN
SUREWIN DANGER: CLOUDY GLEN

3.45 – BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f ITV

18/20 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
17/20 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
17/20 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
17/20 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
17/20 – Won over this trip (2m4f) previously (or further)
16/20 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
14/20 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
13/20 – Officially rated 139 or higher
13/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
12/20 – Favourites placed
9/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (8 of the last 15)
9/20 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
9/20 – Won by a French-bred horse
8/20 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
7/20 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/20 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/20 – Favourites to win (1 joint)
3/20 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
3/20 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/20 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/20 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 8/1
No winning favourite in the last 7 runnings
Paint The Dream won the race in 2022
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat

SUREWIN BEST BET: BEAU BALKO
SUREWIN DANGER: PRINCE QUALI

DONCASTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – Livescore Bet Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed Race) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV

10/11 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
10/11 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
9/11- Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11– Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
7/11 – Favourites placed in the top 2
7/11 – Irish bred
4/11 - Won by the favourite (1 co-fav)
6 of the last 9 winners aged 6 (last 4)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: BOBBI WITH AN I
SUREWIN DANGER: DAMEOFTHECOTSWOLDS

2.40 – Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Handicap Chase Cl2 2m90y ITV

13/13 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
9/13 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
8/13 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
4/13 – Raced at Musselburgh last time out
3/13 - Ridding by a claiming jockey
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Trained by Brian Ellison
10 of the last 12 winners carried 10st 11lbs or more
The last winners returned 11/2 or shorter
Homme Public (3/1) won the race in 2024
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: RARE EDITION
SUREWIN DANGER: HOMME PUBLIC

3.15 – Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Chase (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m2f ITV

19/20 – Aged 8 or older
19/20 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
17/20 – Won no more than 4 times over fences
17/20 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
15/20 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
15/20 – Aged 9 or older
13/20 – Rated 132 or less
12/20 – From the top 3 in the betting
12/20 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
11/20 – Irish bred
10/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/20 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (3 winners)
7/20 – Won their last race
4/20 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners)
2/20 – Winning Favourites
9 year-olds have won 3 of the last 5 runnings
Moroder (18/1) won the race in 2023
Undersupervision (9/2) won the race in 2022
The average wining SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: TWIG
SUREWIN DANGER: WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT

KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

1.45 – bet365 Premier Chase (Listed Race) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m 7 1/2f) ITV

10/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
9/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
8/11 – Had run at the course before
8/11 – Aged 9 or older
8/11 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
7/11 – Irish bred
7/11 – Won over 3m plus in the past
7/11 – Placed 4th or better last time out
5/11 – Rated between 132-141 (inc)
4/11 – Won by jockey Brian Hughes (4 of the last 9)
4/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Ran at Haydock last time out
2/11 – Trained by Sandy Thomson
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 11/2

SUREWIN BEST BET: GREY DAWNING
SUREWIN DANGER: EL ELEFANTE

2.20 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV

Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
3/4 – Aged 6 years-old
3/4 – Carried 10-4 or less (last 3)
2/4 – Winning favourites
2/4 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
Serious Operator (7/2) won the race in 2023
Paul Nicholls trained the winner in 2021 (Flash Collonges)
Nicky Richards trained the winner in 2022 (Famous Bridge)
Dan Skelton trained the winner in 2023 (Santos Blue)
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 31% record with their hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 22% record with their hurdlers at the track
Trainer Rebecca Menzies is just 4-72 with her hurdles at the track
Jockey Conor O’Farrell is 4-from-82 riding over hurdles at the track

SUREWIN BEST BET: ACE OF SPADES
SUREWIN DANGER: BOLD LIGHT

2.55 – bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4 yo+) 2m2f ITV

15/16 – Aged 7 or younger
15/16 – Favourites placed in the top three
14/16 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
14/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Had won at least twice over hurdles before
9/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/16 – Had raced at Kelso before
7/16 – Irish bred
4/16 – Winning favourite
3/16– Ran at Musselburgh last time out
2/16 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
7 of the last 9 winners aged 5 or 6 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: VANDERPOEL
SUREWIN DANGER: DEDICATED HERO

3.30 – bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (Handicap Hurdle) (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV

13/13 – Had run in the last 3 months
11/13 – Won at least twice over hurdles before
10/13 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/13 – Never run at the track before
8/13 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/13 – Irish bred
6/13 – Rated between 138-146
6/13 – Won last time out
5/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/13– Ridden by Brian Hughes
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Richards
Cracking Rhapsody (9/1) won the race last year (2024)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: CRACKING RHAPSODY
SUREWIN DANGER: FAVOUR AND FORTUNE