We've another busy afternoon in store with seven LIVE ITV races spread across three tracks - Kempton, Southwell and Newcastle.

The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase tops the bill at Kempton, with four LIVE races at the Sunbury-On-Thames track, while the stayers are out again up at Newcastle for the gruelling Eider Chase that's run over 4m1f.

Then at Southwell the All Weather racing fans get their fix with a top-notch card that includes the Group 3 Winter Derby - being run at the track for the second time.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at SUREWIN with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

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Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (ITV)

1:50 – Ladbrokes Pendil Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV

17/19 – French or Irish bred
15/19 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
14/19 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
13/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/19 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
12/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (won 8 of the last 14 & 13 in total)
12/19 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
9/19 – Winning favourites
8/19 – Won last time out
Harry Cobden has ridden 3 of the last 4 winners
Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden 2 of the last 10 winners
4 of the last 7 winners owned by Johnny de la Hey
Nicky Henderson has won the race 5 times (but the most recent was in 2004)
Captain Chris was the last winner to land the Arkle Challenge Trophy (2011)

SUREWIN BEST BET: RUBAUD
SUREWIN DANGER: IMPERIAL SAINT

2:25 – Ladbrokes Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

18/19 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/19 -  Came from the top 3 in the betting
17/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
16/19 – Had won no more than once over hurdles in the UK
15/19 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
14/19 – Placed favourites
14/19 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
13/19 – Winners that went onto run in the Triumph Hurdle (3 winners)
12/19– Won carrying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty
11/19 – Won last time out
10/19 – Winning favourites
8/19 – French bred
6/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (6 in total)
5/19 – Irish bred
4/19 – Trained by Alan King (won 3 of last 8 runnings)
4/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 in total)
3/19 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Triumph Hurdle
Zarkandar, Soldatino and Penzance went onto land that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

SUREWIN BEST BET: MONDO MAN
SUREWIN DANGER:ST PANCRAS

3.00 – Ladbrokes Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

17/18 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
17/18 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
15/18 – Returned a single-figure price in the betting
15/18 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
15/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/18 – Had never raced over hurdles at Kempton before
11/18 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old (but last 10 aged 5 or 6)
11/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Won last time out
7/18 – French bred
6/18 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Trained by Alan King
4/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of the last 10) (8 in total)
4/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 6)
2/10 – Trained by Chris Gordon (2 of the last 5)
The last 10 winners aged 5 or 6 years-old
The last 10 winners returned 6/1 or shorter (8 returned 4/1 or shorter)

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

SUREWIN BEST BET: TRIPOLI FLYER
SUREWIN DANGER: ANDASHAN

3.35 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV

19/22 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
19/22 – Aged 9 or younger
17/22 – Rated 139 or higher
16/22 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
16/22 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/22 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
14/22 – Won a Class 2 chase or better before
13/22 – Carried 10-13 or more
14/22 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/22 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
12/22 – Rated between 139 and 150
12/22 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/22 – Carried 11-5 or more
9/22 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
8/22 – Won last time out
8/22 – Aged 8 years-old
6/22 – French bred
5/21 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
4/22 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/21 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
3/22 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
3/22 – Trained by Tom George
3/22 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/22 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/22 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 8)
2/22 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (won 2 of the last 9)
2/22 – Trained by the Philip Hobbs yard (won it 4 times in all)
2/22 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 9/1
Forward Plan won the race in 2024
6 of the last 9 winners carried 10-8 or less

Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park

SUREWIN BEST BET: GOLDEN SON
SUREWIN DANGER: OUR POWER

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ITV)

2:10 – Eider Handicap Chase Cl2 4m1f ITV

20/20 – Had won over at least 3m before
18/20 – Aged 10 or younger
17/20 – Carried 10-13 or more
17/20 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
16/20 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
15/20 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
14/20 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
14/20 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
13/20 – Officially rated between 131-140
13/20 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
12/20 – Irish-bred
11/20 – Placed favourites
7/20 – Won last time out
5/20 – Won over 3m4f or further before
4/20 – Winning favourites
3/20 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/20 – Irish-trained winners
2/20 – Trained by Christian Williams
2/20 – Trained by Brian Ellison (2 of the last 4)
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 9/1
The last back-to-back winner was in the 1960's

SUREWIN BEST BET: EGBERT
SUREWIN DANGER: BODHISATTVA

Southwell Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

2.40 – BetUK Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV

13/17 – Rated 96+
13/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/17 – Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
11/17 – Placed favs
9/17 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
6/17 – Mare winners
5/17 – Winning favourites (2 in the last 10)
4/17 – US bred
0/17 – Winners from stall 1
7 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 2 (4) or 5 (3)
The last 10 winners ALL aged between 4-6
Diligent Harry won the race in 2024

Note: Previous runnings from 2023 back were staged at Lingfield

SUREWIN BEST BET: MARSHMAN
SUREWIN DANGER:VALIANT FORCE

3:15 – BetUK Winter Derby Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f ITV

18/22 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
18/22 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
18/22 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
18/22 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
16/22 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
16/22 – Came from the top 3 in the market
15/22 – Had raced at either Lingfield (11) or Kempton (4) last time out
14/22 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
13/22 – Winning distance – less than a length
13/22 – Placed in their last race
11/22 – Won their last race
10/22– Won at least 6 times previously
9/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of the last 6 runnings)
2/22 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of last 10)
Just 2 of the last 18 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 22 renewals is 5/1
Military Order won the race in 2024

SUREWIN BEST BET: MILITARY ACADEMY
SUREWIN DANGER: CHAMPAGNE PRINCE