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Saturday Racing TV Tips and Trends: 17th February 2024

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Another jam-packed Saturday of racing for the ITV horse racing team as they head to Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton to take in seven races across the three venues.

At Ascot, the Grade One Betfair Ascot Chase is the feature - a prize the Jeremy Scott-trained Dashel Drasher took in 2021.

Up at Haydock, we've the Grand National Trial and Rendlesham Hurdle, while at Wincanton the Kingwell Hurdle takes centre stage - a race the Gary Moore-trained Goshen won in 2021.

So, to help narrow down the fields, and point you in the direction of a few winners, then we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – we hope they help!


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ASCOT HORSE RACING TRENDS (ATR/ITV)

1.50 – Sodexo Live! Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 3m ITV

21/21 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
18/21 – Had run within the last 7 weeks
17/21 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
17/21 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences previously
17/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/21 – Won last time out
13/21 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/21 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (2 winners)
11/21 – Irish bred
9/21 – Winners that went onto finish 5th or better in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
9/21 – Placed favourites
7/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/20 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (3 of the last 5)
3/21 - Won by the Pipe Stable (2 of the last 9)
3/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/21 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/21 – Trained by Rebecca Curtis (2 of last 10)

BEST BET: APPLE AWAY
DANGER: KILBEG KING

2.25 – Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Handicap Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (GBB Race) (4yo+) 2m3 1/2f ITV

16/18 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
15/18 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
12/18 – Carried 10-13 or less
12/18 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/18 – Winning distance – 2 or less
11/18 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
11/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Had won over 2m4f or further before
9/18 – Winners that went onto race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/18 – Priced 8/1 or bigger
8/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/18 – Irish bred
6/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/18 – Had run at Ascot over hurdles before
5/18 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
3/18 – Raced at Sandown last time out
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 5)
2/18 – Trained by Dr Richard Newland
Irish Hill won the race in 2023

BEST BET: IRISH HILL
DANGER: RARE EDITION

3.00 – Injured Jockey Fund Ambassadors Programme Swinley Handicap Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m 80y ITV

13/13 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Aged 8 or older
11/13 – Finished 5th or better last time out
10/13 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
8/13 – Had raced at Ascot (fences) before
8/13 – Aged in double-figures
7/13 – Won 1 or 2 chase races previously
7/13 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
7/13 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
6/13 – Irish bred
4/13 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/13 – Winning distance head or shorter
2/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Winning Favourites
2/13 – Trained by Venetia Williams
6 of the last 11 winners carried 11-0 or more
Cap Du Nord won the race in 2023

BEST BET: IRON BRIDGE
DANGER: REVELS HILL

3.35 - Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

20/21 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
20/21– Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
19/21 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
17/21 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
17/21 – Officially rated 157 or higher
17/21 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
16/21 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
14/21 – Favourites placed
13/21 – Winning favourites
13/21 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
11/21 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
9/21 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
8/21 – Won their last race
8/21 – Unplaced in their latest race
7/21 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
6/20 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (2 winners, Cue Card & Riverside Theatre) later that year
3/21 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 8)
3/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/21 – Trained by Alan King
12 of the last 17 winners returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park
Fakir D’oudairies (won this race in 2022)

BEST BET: L'HOMME PRESSE
DANGER: PIC D'ORHY

HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV)

2.40 – Virgin Bet Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV

19/21 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
16/21  – Raced within the last 5 weeks
15/21 – Had won over at least 3m+ (hurdles) previously
13/21 – Rated 145 or higher
13/21 – Placed favourites
13/21 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
13/21 – Aged 8 or younger
13/21 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
12/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/21 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/21 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
9/21 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (no winners)
9/21– Had run at Haydock before
7/21 – French-bred
6/21 – Placed favourites
4/21 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/21 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/21 – Winning favourites
1/21 – Winners that went onto win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival

Note: The 2003, 2004, 2005 - Run at Kempton Park

BEST BET: BUTCH
DANGER: BOTOX HAS

3.15 – Virgin Bet Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV

21/21 – UK-based trained winners
20/21 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
19/21 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
17/21 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
17/21 – Rated 135 or higher
16/21 – Aged 10 or younger
15/21 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
15/21 – Finished in the top three last time out
15/21 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
13/21 – Aged 9 or younger
12/21 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/21 – Carried 11-0 or less
11/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/21 – Unplaced favourites
8/21 – Won last time out
8/20 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
7/21 – Irish-bred winners
6/21 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
4/21 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/21 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
3/21 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/21 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 9 winners returned 8/1 in the betting
The last 16 winners were aged between 8-11 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 11/1

BEST BET: CREDO
DANGER: MY SILVER LINING

WINCANTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4)

3.42- Wincanton Matchbook Jennings Bet Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y ITV

20/20 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
19/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
18/20 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
18/20 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
18/20 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
14/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/20 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
14/20 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
11/20 – Rated 155 or higher
9/20 – Winning favourites
9/20 – Won last time out
8/20– Raced at Sandown last time out
4/20 – Trained by Alan King
3/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
1/20 – Winners that went onto win the Stayers’ Hurdle (Inglis Drever)
Goshen (10/3) won this race in 2021 and 2022

BEST BET: PENTIRE HEAD
DANGER: THE BOLD THADY

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