Some nice jumping cards to look forward to this Saturday from Wetherby, Warwick and Kempton, with eight races being shown LIVE on ITV4 across the three tracks.

The clear highlights on the day are the Grade 3 Agetur UK Ltd Classic Handicap Chase, at Warwick– a race trainer Paul Nicholls has won three times since 2006, and at Kempton the Listed Lanzarote Hurdle - a prize that the Nicky Henderson yard have landed three times since 2013 - is their showcase event.

As normal, here at SUREWIN we are on-hand with all the key stats for the LIVE ITV races – hopefully they might help point you in the direction of a few winners.

Kempton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

1.30 – New Bet-In-Race With Coral Racing Club Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m ITV4

11/11 - Aged 8 or older
11/11 – Didn’t win last time out
10/11 – Had run at the track before
9/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
8/11 – Carried 11-0 or more
8/11 - Won between 2-4 times (fences) before
7/11 – Placed favourites
7/11 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
7/11 – Unplaced last time out
3/11 – Winning favourites
Philip Hobbs yard won the race in 2014 & 2016
Jockey James Bowen has ridden 2 of the last 3 winners

SUREWIN BEST BET: FLEGMATIK
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: GUSTAVIAN

2.07 – Coral Silviniaco Conti Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

9/10 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
9/10 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 - Aged 8 or older
7/10 – Placed 2^nd or 3^rd last time out
7/10 – Had won at least 4 times over fences
7/10 – Winning favourites
6/10 – Had won over fences at the track
Jockey Harry Cobden has ridden 2 of the last 3 winners
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2022, 2019, 2017 & 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2020, 2021 & 2023
Trainer Alan King won the race in 2015
Trainer Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014
Pic D’Orhy won the race last year

SUREWIN BEST BET: PIC D'ORHY
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: EDWARDSTONE

2.42 – Coral Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

22/22 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
19/22 – Aged 7 or younger
19/22 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
17/22 – Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
16/22 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
16/22 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
16/22 – Winning distance 3 lengths or less
16/22 – Had never won a hurdles race over 2m4f or longer before
16/22 – Irish (10) or French (6) bred
14/22 – Carried 10-11 or less
13/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/22 – Aged 6 years-old
10/22 – Placed favourites
9/22 – Won last time out
8/22 – Had run at Kempton before (5 won)
5/22 -  Winning favourites
4/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 11)
3/22 – Trained by Nick Williams
3/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (38 runnings) 36 winners have been aged 7 or younger
A claiming jockey has won 6 of the last 10 runnings

SUREWIN BEST BET: HERMINO AA (ew)
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: IMPOSE TOI

Warwick Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

1.49 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m1f ITV4

18/18 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
17/18 – Had won between 1-4 times over hurdles before
14/18 – Had never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
14/18 – Carried 11-0 or less
15/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Officially rated between 126-142
14/18 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/18 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
12/18 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
11/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/18 – Placed favourites
7/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/18 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/18 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/18 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
3/18 – Winning favourites
12 of the last 13 winners were aged 8 or younger
5 of the last 10 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey

SUREWIN BEST BET: MEL MONROSE
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: MARTHA BRAE

2.24 – Trustatrader Hampton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m ITV4

16/16 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
15/16 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
15/16 – Had won between 0-2 times over fences
13/16 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
13/16 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
13/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
12/16 – Had won over 3m (or further) chase
11/16 – Won last time out
11/16 – Aged 7 years-old
10/16 – Irish bred
10/16 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Alan King
2/16 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob

SUREWIN BEST BET: GREY DAWNING
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: APPLE AWAY

3.00 – Wigley Group Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m5f ITV4

16/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
16/18 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
14/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/18 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
13/18 – Officially rated between 129-140
13/18 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
13/18 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
12/18 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
12/18 –  Placed in the top 3 in their last race
11/18 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/18 – Won by an Irish bred horse
9/18 – Favourites placed
9/18 – Returned a double-figure price
8/18 – Had raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
6/18 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
6/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (One For Arthur won both races in 2017)
5/18 – Won their last race
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Trained by Alan King
2/18 – Trained by Emma Lavelle (2 of the last 10)
10 of the last 13 Classic Chase winners aged 9 or younger
Just two winning favourites in the last 18 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 10/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: BEAUPORT
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: MALINA GIRL

3.35 – Unibet Veterans’ Handicap Chase (2023 Veterans’ Chase Series Final) Cl2 (9yo+) 3m ITV4

Just 8 previous runnings
Trainers Anthony Honeyball, Venetia Williams, Evan Williams (2), Charlie Longsdon, David Pipe, Sandy Thomson and Mel Rowley are past winners
8/8 – Ran in last 5 weeks
7/8 – Unplaced last time out
6/8 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
6/8 – 4+ wins over fences
5/8 – Winners aged 11 or 12 years-old
4/8 – Unplaced favourites
5/8 – Officially rated between 135-145
2/8 – Winning favourite (joint)
Prime Venture won the race in 2022

Note: Normally run at Sandown Park

SUREWIN BEST BET: CELEBRE D'ALLEN
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: GOOD BOY BOBBY

Wetherby Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

1.10 – William Hill Towton Novices Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)

16/17 – Aged 8 or younger
15/17 – Had never raced over fences at Wetherby before
14/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/17 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
13/17 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
12/17 – Irish bred
11/17 – Aged 7 years-old
10/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
8/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Brown Advisory Chase at Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Blaklion 2016, plus all finished 6^th or better)
2/17 – Trained by Ian Williams
2/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 wins in total)

SUREWIN BEST BET: COLONEL HARRY
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: CHASING FIRE