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Saturday Racing TV Tips and Trends: 15th February 2025

Friday, February 14, 2025

Another jam-packed Saturday of racing for the ITV horse racing team as they head to Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton to take in seven races across the three venues.

At Ascot, the Grade One Betfair Ascot Chase is the feature.

Up at Haydock, we've the Grand National Trial and Rendlesham Hurdle, while at Wincanton the Kingwell Hurdle takes centre stage.

So, to help narrow down the fields, and point you in the direction of a few winners, then we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – we hope they help!


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ASCOT HORSE RACING TRENDS (SkyRacing/ITV)

1.50 – Ebony Horse Club Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 3m ITV

22/22 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
19/22 – Had run within the last 7 weeks
18/22 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
18/22 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences previously
17/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/22 – Won last time out
13/22 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/22 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (2 winners)
12/22 – Irish bred
9/22 – Winners that went onto finish 5th or better in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
9/22 – Placed favourites
7/22 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/22 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (3 of the last 6)
3/22 - Won by the Pipe Stable (2 of the last 10)
3/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/22 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/22 – Trained by Rebecca Curtis (2 of last 11)
Henry’s Choice (13/2) won the race in 2024

BEST BET: JINKO BLUE
DANGER: PEAKY BOY

2.25 – Betfair Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (GBB Race) (4yo+) 2m3 1/2f ITV

17/19 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
15/19 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
13/19 – Carried 10-13 or less
12/19 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/19 – Winning distance – 2 or less
12/19 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
12/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Had won over 2m4f or further before
9/19 – Winners that went onto race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
9/19 – Priced 8/1 or bigger
9/19 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/19 – Irish bred
7/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/19 – Had run at Ascot over hurdles before
5/19 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
3/19 – Raced at Sandown last time out
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 6)
2/19 – Trained by Dr Richard Newland
Mothill (18/1) won the race in 2024

BEST BET: PATRIOTIK
DANGER: LA PINSONNIERE

3.00 – Betfair Swinley Handicap Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m 80y ITV

14/14 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Aged 8 or older
12/14 – Finished 5th or better last time out
11/14 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
8/14 – Had raced at Ascot (fences) before
8/14 – Aged in double-figures
8/14 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (5) last time out
7/14 – Won just 1 or 2 chase races previously
7/14 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
7/14 – Irish bred
4/14 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/14 – Winning distance head or shorter
2/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Winning Favourites
2/14 – Trained by Venetia Williams
7 of the last 12 winners carried 11-0 or more
Threeunderthrufive won the race in 2024#

BEST BET: THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE
DANGER: HASTHING

3.37 - Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

21/22 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
21/22– Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
20/22 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
18/22 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
18/22 – Officially rated 157 or higher
17/21 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
17/22 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
14/22 – Favourites placed
13/22 – Winning favourites
14/22 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
11/22 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
10/22 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
8/22 – Won their last race
8/22 – Unplaced in their latest race
7/22 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
6/20 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (2 winners, Cue Card & Riverside Theatre) later that year
4/22– Trained by Paul Nicholls (3 of the last 9)
3/22 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/22 – Trained by Alan King
13 of the last 18 winners returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park

BEST BET: PIC D'ORHY
DANGER: L'HOMME PRESSE

HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RTV)

2:05 Unibet Middle Distance Chase Series Veterans’ Handicap Chase Cl3 (10yo+ 0-135) 2m4f ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer Tom Lacey has a 50% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 29% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Richard Hobson has a 27% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Neil Alexander is just 1-from-16 with their chasers at the track
Jockey Ryan Mania is just 1-18 riding over fences at the track

BEST BET: WHISTLEINTHEDARK
DANGER: THE EDGAR WALLACE

2.40 – WKD Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV

20/22 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
17/22  – Raced within the last 5 weeks
16/22 – Had won over at least 3m+ (hurdles) previously
14/22 – Rated 145 or higher
14/22 – Placed favourites
14/22 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
14/22 – Aged 8 or younger
14/22 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
13/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/22 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/22 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
10/22– Had run at Haydock before
9/22 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (no winners)
8/22 – French-bred
4/22 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/22 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/22 – Winning favourites
1/22 – Winners that went onto win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival
Botox Has (5/2) won the race in 2024

Note: The 2003, 2004, 2005 - Run at Kempton Park

BEST BET: BOXTOX HAS
DANGER: NEMEAN LION

3.15 – Oddschecker Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV

21/22 – UK-based trained winners
20/22 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
19/22– Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
18/22 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
17/22 – Rated 135 or higher
17/22 – Aged 10 or younger
16/22 – Finished in the top three last time out
15/22 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
15/22 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
14/22 – Aged 9 or younger
13/22 – Finished in the top two last time out
12/22 – Carried 11-0 or less
11/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/22 – Unplaced favourites
8/22 – Won last time out
8/20 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
8/22 – Irish-bred winners
6/22 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
4/22 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/22 – Finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/22 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
3/22 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/22 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 10 winners returned 8/1 in the betting
16 of the last 17 winners were aged between 8-11 years-old

BEST BET: FAMOUS BRIDGE
DANGER: GIT MAKER

WINCANTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RTV)

1:36 - Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y ITV

21/21 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
20/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
19/21 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
19/21 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
19/21 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
15/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/21 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
14/21 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
11/21 – Rated 155 or higher
10/21 – Winning favourites
9/21 – Won last time out
8/21– Raced at Sandown last time out
4/21 – Trained by Alan King
3/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
1/21 – Winners that went onto win the Stayers’ Hurdle (Inglis Drever)
Nemean Lion (6/5 fav) won the race in 2024
Goshen (10/3) won this race in 2021 and 2022

 

BEST BET: BURDETT ROAD
DANGER: GOLDEN ACE

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