Plenty more Cheltenham Festival clues on offer this Saturday as the ITV cameras head to both Newbury and Warwick to take in seven races across the two venues.

At Newbury the Denman Chase, Betfair Hurdle and Betfair Exchange Chase are the standout contests - In the last 19 runnings of the Denman Chase we've seen 8 winning favourites, while ALL of the last 20 Betfair Hurdle winners carried 11st 8lbs or less in weight.

Then up at Warwick, we've three more LIVE ITV races, including the Grade Two Kingmaker Novices' Chase one of the features - a race that gives us a chance to see some of the potential stars of the future.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at SUREWIN with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

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NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.30 – Betfair Serial Winners Fund Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m52y ITV

16/18 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
16/18 – Had run within the last 10 weeks
13/18 – Aged 7 or younger
13/18 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/18 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
13/18 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
11/18 – Unplaced last time out
11/18 – Carried 11-0 or more
10/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/18 – Aged 7 years-old
7/18 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/18 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (no winners)
3/18 – French bred
3/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Raced at Haydock last time out
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
4 of the last 8 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 15/2

SUREWIN Best Bet: YOUNG BUTLER
SUREWIN Danger: AMERICAN SNIPER

2.05 - Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV

16/20 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
16/20 – Rated 150+
15/20 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
15/20 – Placed favourites
15/20 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/20 – Aged 8 or younger
12/20 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
11/20 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
11/20 – Raced at either Cheltenham or Kempton last time out
8/20 – Won last time out
8/20 – Winning favourites
8/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (10 wins in total)
8/20 – Irish bred
7/20 – French bred
6/20 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
5/20 – Returned a double-figure price
4/20 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
4/20 – Trained by the Tizzard yard
2/20 – Won by the Pipe stable
7 of the last 17 winners were aged 7 years-old

SUREWIN Best Bet: SHISHKIN
SUREWIN Danger: PROTEKTORAT

2.40 – Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y ITV

17/18 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Placed favourites
15/18 – Aged 8 or younger
15/18 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (3 winners)
14/18 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
13/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/18 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
11/18 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (6 winners)
10/18 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
10/18 – Winning favourites
9/18 – Won last time out
9/18 – French bred
6/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/18 – Ran at Sandown last time out
5/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/18 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
2/18 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase
Fumambule Sivola won the race in 2022 (9/4) and 2023 (7/1)

Note: The 2019 running was staged at Ascot

SUREWIN Best Bet: EDWARDSTONE
SUREWIN Danger: BOOTHILL

3.15 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV

21/21 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
20/21 – Aged 7 or younger
19/21 – Rated 130 or higher
18/21 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
18/21 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
17/21 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
17/21 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
16/21 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
16/21 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
16/21 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
14/21 – Placed favourites
11/21 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
11/21 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
10/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/21 – Irish bred
8/21 – Won last time out
8/21 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 17)
7/21 – Winning favourites
4/21 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/21 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/21 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 10)
2/21 - Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (2 of the last 14)
2/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 11)
2/21  - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/21 – Owned by JP McManus
1/21 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
26 of the last 27 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 14/1

SUREWIN Best Bet: ALTOBELLI
SUREWIN Danger: SPIRIT D'AUNOU

WARWICK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.45 – JCB Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

11/12 – Aged 7 or younger
11/12 – Won over 2m fences before
10/12 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
9/12 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
8/12 – Won last time out
7/12 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
7/12 – Winning favourites
6/12 – Rated between 137-147
3/12 – Unplaced favs
4 of the last 8 winners have been 6 year-olds
Jonbon (1/16 fav) won the race in 2023
Edwardstone (10/11 fav) won the race in 2022

Note: 2009 renewal was at Sandown

SUREWIN Best Bet: SANTOS BLUE
SUREWIN Danger: ASTRONOMIC VIEW

2.20 – Trustatrader Warwick Mares´Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV

9/9 – Aged 6 or 7 years old
9/9 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
8/9 – Favourites placed 1^st or 2^nd
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
7/9 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
6/9 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
5/9 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
5/9 – Winning favourites
5/9 – Irish bred
5/9 – Had run at Warwick before
4/9 – Rated between 140 and 149
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 10 runnings
Theatre Glory (4/7 fav) won the race in 2023

SUREWIN Best Bet: YOU WEAR IT WELL
SUREWIN Danger: GET A TONIC

2.55 – Unibet Middle Distance Series Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2) (9yo+ 0-150) 2m4f ITV

No past runnings
Trainer Donald McCain has a 43% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Jane Williams has a 33% strike-rate with her chasers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 29% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Kim Bailey has a 25% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Charlie Longsdon has a 22% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Jockey Brendan Powell has a 31% strike-rate riding over fences at the track

SUREWIN Best Bet: FAST BUCK
SUREWIN Danger: DO YOUR JOB