Plenty more Cheltenham Festival clues on offer this Saturday as the ITV cameras head to both Newbury and Warwick to take in seven races across the two venues.

At Newbury the Denman Chase, William Hill Hurdle and William Hill Exchange Chase are the standout contests - In the last 21 runnings of the Denman Chase we've seen 9 winning favourites, while ALL of the last 22 William Hill Hurdle winners carried 11st 8lbs or less in weight.

Then up at Warwick, we've three more LIVE ITV races, including the Grade Two Kingmaker Novices' Chase one of the features - a race that gives us a chance to see some of the potential stars of the future.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at SUREWIN with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

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NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Stayers’ Hurdle Series Qualifier) Cl3 3m52y ITV

17/19 – Had run within the last 10 weeks
16/19 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
14/19 – Carried 10-13 or more
14/19 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
14/19 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
13/19 – Aged 7 or younger
12/19 – Carried 11-0 or more
11/19 – Unplaced last time out
11/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/19 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/19 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (1 winner)
7/19 – Aged 7 years-old
3/19 – French bred
3/19 – Won last time out
3/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Raced at Haydock last time out
2/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/19 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/19 – Trained by Alan King
4 of the last 9 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

SUREWIN Best Bet: To Follow
SUREWIN Danger: To Follow

2.25 – William Hill Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV

17/21 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
17/21 – Rated 150+
17/21 – Aged 9 or younger
16/21 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
16/21 – Placed favourites
16/21 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
15/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/21 – Aged 8 or younger
12/21 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
11/21 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
12/21 – Raced at either Cheltenham or Kempton last time out
9/21 – Winning favourites
9/21 – Irish bred
8/21 – Won last time out
8/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (10 wins in total)
7/21 – French bred
6/21 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
5/21 – Returned a double-figure price
4/21 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
4/21 – Trained by the Tizzard yard
2/21 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/21 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
7 of the last 18 winners were aged 7 years-old
Just one winner aged 11+ since 2000
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

SUREWIN Best Bet: To Follow
SUREWIN Danger: To Follow

3.00 – William Hill Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y ITV

18/19 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
17/19 – Placed favourites
16/19 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (3 winners)
15/19 – Aged 8 or younger
15/19 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
13/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/19 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
12/19 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (6 winners)
11/19 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
11/19 – Winning favourites
9/19 – Won last time out
9/19 – French bred
6/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/19 – Ran at Sandown last time out
5/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/19 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
2/19 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 4)
2/19 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase
Edwardstone won the race in 2024

Note: The 2019 running was staged at Ascot

SUREWIN Best Bet: To Follow
SUREWIN Danger: To Follow

3.35 – William Hill Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV

22/22 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
21/22 – Aged 7 or younger
20/22 – Rated 130 or higher
19/22 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
18/22 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
18/22 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
17/22 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
17/22 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
17/22 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
17/22 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
14/22 – Placed favourites
12/22 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
11/22 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
10/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/22 – Irish bred
8/22 - Won last time out
8/22 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 18)
7/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 6 times in all)
3/22 – Owned by JP McManus (including 2024)
3/22 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/22 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 11)
2/22 - Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (2 of the last 15)
2/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 12)
2/22  - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
1/22 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
27 of the last 28 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12.5/1

SUREWIN Best Bet: To Follow
SUREWIN Danger: To Follow

WARWICK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – Unibet Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

11/12 – Aged 7 or younger
11/12 – Won over 2m fences before
10/12 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
9/12 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
8/12 – Won last time out
7/12 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
7/12 – Winning favourites
6/12 – Rated between 137-147
3/12 – Unplaced favs
4 of the last 8 winners have been 6 year-olds
Jonbon (1/16 fav) won the race in 2023
Edwardstone (10/11 fav) won the race in 2022

Note: 2009 renewal was at Sandown and 2024 meeting was called off

SUREWIN Best Bet: To Follow
SUREWIN Danger: To Follow

2.40 – Read Nicky Henderson’s Weekly Unibet Blog Mares’ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV

9/9 – Aged 6 or 7 years old
9/9 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
8/9 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
7/9 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
6/9 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
5/9 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
5/9 – Winning favourites (1 co-fav)
5/9 – Irish bred
5/9 – Had run at Warwick before
4/9 – Rated between 140 and 149
Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the last 2 runnings
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 10 runnings
Theatre Glory (4/7 fav) won the race in 2023

SUREWIN Best Bet: To Follow
SUREWIN Danger: To Follow

3.15 – Unibet Middle Distance Series Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2) (9yo+ 0-150) 2m4f ITV

No past runnings
Trainer Shelia Lewis has a 44% strike-rate with her chasers at the track
Trainer Anthony Honeyball has a 33% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Ben Pauling has a 29% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 27% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 24% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Jockey Ben Jones has a 32% strike-rate riding over fences at the track
Jockey Harry Skelton has a 26% strike-rate riding over fences at the track
Jockey Brendan Powell has a 25% strike-rate riding over fences at the track

SUREWIN Best Bet: To Follow
SUREWIN Danger: To Follow