It's the last Saturday action before Christmas Day, but with a bumper day ahead on Boxing Day (we'll be covering that too) then there's plenty to look forward to over the festive period - with the action coming from Ascot and Haydock. 

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at SUREWIN with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (Sky Sports Racing/ITV)

1.50 – Howden Graduation Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4

10/10 – Aged 7 or younger
10/10 – Favourites placed in the top 3
9/10 – Irish/French bred winners
9/10 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Won between 1-2 times over fences
8/10 – Aged 6 or younger
7/10 - Priced 5/4 or shorter
5/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/10 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/10 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob

SUREWIN BEST BET: IROKO
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: FIL DOR

2.25 – Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f ITV4

21/22 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
21/22 – Winners that went onto compete in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) (6 won, 4 runners-up)
19/22– Placed in the top three in their last race
17/22 – Favourites placed
17/22 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
17/22 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles previously
16/22 – Won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
13/22– Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
13/22– Raced at Newbury last time out
12/22– French-bred horse
10/22 – Won their last race
10/22 – Favourites that won
7/22 – Won by a past winner
3/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/22 – Trained by Emma Lavelle
0/22 – Irish trained winners
The last back-to-back winner was Unowhatimeanharry (2016)
Crambo (5/1) won the race in 2023

Note:
2022 running – Kempton
2009 and 2010 runnings - Newbury
2005 running - Chepstow
2004 running -Windsor

SUREWIN BEST BET: THE WALLPARK
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: BLUEKING D'OROUX

3.00 – Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV4

17/18 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
12/18 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
11/18 – Raced at Ascot previously
10/18 – Aged either 7 or 8 years-old
10/18 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/18 – Won by a French bred horse
9/18 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/18 – Favourites placed
7/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/18 – Won at least 5 times over fences before
6/18 – Aged 7 years-old
5/18 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Ascot (2) last time out
3/18 – Favourites (1 joint)
2/18 – Trained by Henry Daly
2/18 – Trained by Anthony Honeyball (2 of the last 7)
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 5 runnings)
8 of the last 10 winners carried 10-10 or more
7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-3 or more
Victtorino (4/1) won the race in 2023
Venetia Williams won the race in 2013 and 2023

Note: The 2004 renewal was staged at Windsor

SUREWIN BEST BET: VICTTORINO
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: TWO FOR GOLD

3.35 – Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m ITV4

20/20 – Had won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
19/20 – Aged between 4-7 years-old
19/20 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
17/20 – Had raced within the last 2 months
14/20 – Carried 10-10 or more
11/20 – Officially rated between 127 and 136
11/20 – Unplaced favourites
10/20 – Priced 12/1 or bigger in the betting
8/20 – Won last time out
8/20 – Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
7/20 – Irish bred
7/20 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 7)
3/20 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/20 – Winning favourites
4 of the last 7 winners ran in the Greatwood Hurdle that season
Hughie Morrison has won 2 of the last 4

SUREWIN BEST BET: KABRAL DU MATHAN
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: SECRET SQUIRREL

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.30 – Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase Cl2 3m 1 1/2f ITV4

15/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Failed to win their last race
12/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
11/15 – Won over at least 3m before (hurdles or fences)
10/15 – Had raced at Haydock previously (hurdles or fences)
9/15 – Won between 2-3 times over fences previously
9/15 – Favourites placed
5/15 – French bred
3/15 – Ridden by jockey Tom O’Brien
3/15 – Went onto run in that season’s Aintree Grand National (all unplaced)
3/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/15 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
8 of the last 14 winners carried 11-0 or more
Enqarde (8/1) won the race in 2021

SUREWIN BEST BET: INTIMATE
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: CERENDIPITY

2.05 – Betfred Nifty Fifty Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Qualifier) Cl3 (3yo+ 0-135) 1m 7 1/2f ITV4

Just 3 previous runnings
All 3 winners ridden by a claimer
All 3 winners returned 11/2 or shorter
2 of the 3 winners carried 11-4 or more
2 of the 3 winner aged 8 years-old
1/3 – Winning favourites
Venetia Williams, Donald McCain and James Moffatt have trained the winners

SUREWIN BEST BET: FAMOUS BRIDGE
SUREWIN BEST DANGER: EAST STREET