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Saturday Horse Racing Tips and Trends (Sat 14th Dec 24)

Monday, December 9, 2024

Plenty to look forward to this weekend as we've one of the jump season highlights this Saturday with Cheltenham's final day of their December Meeting. A bumper day at Prestbury Park with the December Gold Cup one of the highlights - the ITV cameras will be showing four LIVE races from Prestbury Park.

The LIVE ITV action doesn't end at Cheltenham though as they are also at Doncaster to take in three races.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on SUREWIN with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV) -

1.50 – Nyetimber December Gold Cup (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f ITV

20/21 – Aged 8 or younger
19/21 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
17/21 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
16/21 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences before
15/21 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/20 - Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival later that season (2 winners, Frodon – Ryanair Chase and Coole Cody – Plate)
15/21 – Had raced at Cheltenham (fences) before (6 won)
14/21 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/21 – Officially rated 141 or higher
13/21 – Unplaced favourites
12/21 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/21 – French bred
10/21 – Carried 10-12 or more
10/21 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
10/21 – Ran in the Paddy Power (Nov) Gold Cup last time out (1 won)
7/21 – Finished in the top 5 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time out
5/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/21 – Won last time out
3/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/21 – Went to an Irish-trained horse
2/21 – Trained by David Pipe
2/21 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/21 – Winning favourites
9 of the last 12 winners carried 10-12 or less
The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 10/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: MADARA
SUREWIN DANGER: IN EXCELSIS DEO

 

2.25 BetMGM Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) 2m 1/2f

13/13 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Had run at Cheltenham before
10/13 – Returned 15/2 or shorter
10/13 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
10/13 – Aged 7 or older
10/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
8/13 – Irish bred
8/13 – Carried 10-12 or more
8/13 – Returned 5/1 or shorter
5/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Ridden by Brendan Powell
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 17/2

SUREWIN BEST BET: MASTER CHEWY
SUREWIN DANGER: TRIPLE TRADE

3.00 - Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Bristol Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV

19/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
18/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
17/19 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
17/19 – Aged 6 or younger
16/19 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more
15/19 – Placed favourites
15/19 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Went on run in the Albert Bartlett (3 won) at the Cheltenham Festival
12/19 – Winning favourite (1 co, 1 joint)
12/19 – Won last time out
12/19 – Irish bred
11/19 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
11/19 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
9/19 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a Cheltenham Festival race that season
9/19 – Had won at Cheltenham before
8/18 – Won over 3m (hurdles) before
3/19 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 9)
2/19 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
11 of the last 14 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
10 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 years-old
The Tizzard yard have won 2 of the last 6 renewals
The Irish have won 2 of the last 3 runnings

SUREWIN BEST BET: SKYJACK HIJACK
SUREWIN DANGER: ABOUTDAWNTIME

 

3.35 – Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4 1/2f ITV

Just 8 previous runnings
All 8 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 - Winners carried 10-10 or more
6/8 - Aged 7 or younger
6/8 - Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/8 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
2/8 – Winning favourites
Trainers, Lucy Wadham (2), Nicky Henderson, Dan Skelton (2), Noel Williams (2), Anthony Honeyball

SUREWIN BEST BET: JOYEUSE
SUREWIN DANGER: TAKE NO CHANCES

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/Sky Sports Racing)

2.05 - bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-150) 3m ITV

10/10 – Aged 7 or older
9/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Won over at least 3m
8/10 - Irish bred
7/10 – Aged 8 or 9
7/10 – Favourites finished in top 2
7/10 – Won between 2-4 times over fences
6/10 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/9 – Unplaced last time out
4/9 – Had run at Doncaster before
3/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by Kim Bailey (2 of the last 3)
2/9 – Ridden by David Bass
Forward Plan won the race in 2023

SUREWIN BEST BET: SAIL AWAY
SUREWIN DANGER: DOES HE KNOW

 

2.40– bet365 Doncaster Mares’ Hurdle (Listed Race) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV

No past runnings
Trainer Adrian Paul Keatley is 2 from 3 over hurdles at the track

SUREWIN BEST BET: WEST BALBOA
SUREWIN DANGER: OTTIZZINI

 

3.15 - bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m½f ITV

8/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/10 – Carried 11st or more
8/10 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles
7/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter
6/10 – Irish bred
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 7)
3 of the last 7 winners won by a claiming jockey
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 23% strike-rate at the track with his hurdlers
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 22% strike-rate at the track with his hurdlers

 

SUREWIN BEST BET: NORMAN FLETCHER
SUREWIN DANGER: LEMONCELLO

 

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