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Saturday Horse Racing Tips and Trends (Sat 16th Dec 23)

Friday, December 15, 2023

Plenty to look forward to this weekend as we've one of the jump season highlights this Saturday with Cheltenham's final day of their December Meeting. A bumper day at Prestbury Park with the December Gold Cup one of the highlights - the ITV cameras will be showing five LIVE races from Prestbury Park.

The LIVE ITV action doesn't end at Cheltenham though as they are also at Doncaster to take in three races so we'll be praying the worst of the weather also bypasses them.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on SUREWIN with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV) -

1.15 Quintessentially Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV

8/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/9  - Had run at Cheltenham before (fences) (3 won)
8/9 – 2+ past chase wins
7/9 – Top 5 finish last time out
6/9 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
6/9 – Irish bred
6/9 – Favourites placed in the first two
5/9 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
3/9 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/9 – Ridden by Brendan Powell
2/9 – Winning favourites

SUREWIN BEST BET: CALICO
SUREWIN DANGER: FUNAMBULE SIVOLA

1.50 – Virgin Bet December Gold Cup (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f ITV

19/20 – Aged 8 or younger
18/20 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
16/20 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
15/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/20 - Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival later that season (2 winners, Frodon – Ryanair Chase and Coole Cody – Plate)
15/20 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences before
14/20 – Had raced at Cheltenham (fences) before (6 won)
13/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/20 – Officially rated 141 or higher
12/20 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/20 – Unplaced favourites
11/20 – French bred
9/20 – Carried 10-12 or more
9/20 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
9/20 – Ran in the Paddy Power (Nov) Gold Cup last time out (1 won)
6/20 – Finished in the top 5 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time out
5/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/20 – Won last time out
3/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/20 – Went to an Irish-trained horse
2/20 – Trained by David Pipe
2/20 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/20 – Winning favourites
9 of the last 11 winners carried 10-12 or less
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 10/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: IL RIDOTO
SUREWIN DANGER: FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES

2.25 Favourite From The Sun Now Daily Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m2f ITV

8/9 – Aged 8+
8/9  - Had run at Cheltenham in the past (4 won)
8/9 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
7/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/9 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
7/9 – Carried 11st 1lb or less
6/9 – Rated between 133 and 139
6/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Unplaced favourites
6/9 - Aged 9+
4/9 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/9 – Irish bred
2/9 – Won by trained Venetia Williams
2/9 – Won by trained Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/ 9- Won by the Tizzard yard
2/9 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/9 – Ridden by Charlie Deutsch
0/9 – Winning favourites

SUREWIN BEST BET: EASY AS THAT
SUREWIN DANGER: BROADWAY BOY

3.00 - Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Bristol Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

18/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
17/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
16/18 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
16/18 – Aged 6 or younger
15/18 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more
14/18 – Placed favourites
14/18 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Went on run in the Albert Bartlett (3 won) at the Cheltenham Festival
11/18 – Winning favourite (1 co, 1 joint)
11/18 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
11/18 – Won last time out
11/18 – Irish bred
10/18 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
9/18 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a Cheltenham Festival race that season
9/18 – Had won at Cheltenham before
8/18 – Won over 3m (hurdles) before
3/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/18 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
10 of the last 13 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
9 of the last 11 winners were aged 5 years-old

SUREWIN BEST BET: SHANAGH BOB
SUREWIN DANGER: CADELL

3.35 – Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4 1/2f ITV

Just 7 previous runnings
All 7 winners returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 - Winners carried 10-11 or more
5/7 - Aged 7 or younger
5/7 - Aged 5 or 6 years-old
2/7 – Winning favourites
Martello Sky won the race 12 months ago
Trainers, Lucy Wadham (2), Nicky Henderson, Dan Skelton, Noel Williams (2), Anthony Honeyball

SUREWIN BEST BET: THEATRE GLORY
SUREWIN DANGER: COQUELICOT

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/Sky Sports Racing)

2:05 - bet365 Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl3 (4yo+ 0-135) 2m3f ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 29% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Tom Lacey has a 25% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Venetia Williams has a 24% strike-rate with her chasers at the track
Trainer Alan King has is just 2 from 30 with his chasers at the track

SUREWIN BEST BET: MISTER WHO
SUREWIN DANGER: FINDTHETIME

2:40 - bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m½f ITV

8/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/9 – Carried 11st or more
8/9 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles
7/9 – Returned 4/1 or shorter
6/9 – Irish bred
3/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Tommy’s Oscar won the race in 2021

SUREWIN BEST BET: TOMMY'S OSCAR
SUREWIN DANGER: GIN COCO

3:15 - bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-150) 3m ITV

9/9 – Aged 7 or older
8/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/9 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Won over at least 3m
7/9 – Aged 8 or 9
7/9  - Irish bred
7/9 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/9 – Favourites finished in top 2
6/9 – Won between 2-4 times over fences
6/9 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/9 – Unplaced last time out
4/9 – Had run at Doncaster before
3/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by Kim Bailey
2/9 – Ridden by David Bass

SUREWIN BEST BET: MANOTHEPEOPLE
SUREWIN DANGER: SAIL AWAY

 

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