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Sat TV Tips and Stats: 8th June 24

Wednesday, June 5, 2024

Another busy Saturday of horse racing ahead with the LIVE ITV action this week coming from Beverley and Haydock. As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – use these to help narrow down the field and find the best profiles of past winners.

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Betfred Passionate About Sport Achilles Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 5f ITV4

14/14 – Returned 14/1 or shorter
13/14 – Aged 5 or older
13/14 – Had won over 5f before
12/14 – Didn’t win last time out
11/14 – Had raced in the last 10 weeks
11/14 – Had finished in the top 5 last time out
10/14 – Won between 6-8 times before
10/14 – Drawn between stalls 2-7 (inc)
10/14 – Had run at the course before
9/14 – Winning distance 1 length or less
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
5/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by William Haggas
2/14 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy (2 of the last 7)
9 of the last 10 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
The last 11 winners came between stalls 2-10
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1
Note: The 2020 running was staged at Doncaster

Surewin Best Bet: Live In The Dream
Surewin Danger: Democracy Dilemma

2.25 Betfred “Play Fred’s £5 Million” Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV4

Just 2 previous runnings
Trainers Charlie Fellowes & David & Nicola Barron have won the race before
No winning favourite
Both winners aged 4 years-old
Both winners carried between 8-4 and 8-8
Jockey Jim Crowley has a 25% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Callum Shepherd has a 25% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track

Surewin Best Bet: Maghlaak
Surewin Danger: Divina Grace

3.00 – Betfred Nifty Fifty Lester Piggott Fillies’ Stakes (Reg as the Pinnacle Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m3f ITV4

20/21 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
19/21 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
18/21 – Rated 92 or higher
17/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/21 – Aged 4 years-old
16/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/21 – Placed favourites
14/21 – Had won over 1m4f before
14/21 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
6/21 – Had run at Haydock before
6/21 – Winning favourites
6/21 – Won last time out
2/21 – Trained by Roger Varian
3/21 – Trained by William Haggas (3 of the last 5)
2/21 – Ridden by Tom Marquand (last 2)
2/21 – Trained by John Gosden
The last 8 winners returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
The last 10 winners aged 4 or 5
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1

Surewin Best Bet: Sea Theme
Surewin Danger: Queen Of The Pride

3.35 - Betfred John Of Gaunt Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV4

19/20 – Rated 106 or higher
18/20 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
17/20 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
17/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
17/20 – Had won over 7f before
16/20 – Came from the top three in the betting
12/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/20 – Drawn in stall 3 or lower
13/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/20 – Had won at least 4 times before
13/20 – Favourites placed
6/20 – Had run at the track before
7/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint, 1 Co)
3/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/20 – Trained by Charles Hills (2 of the last 8)
Jumby (9/4 fav) won the race in 2023
9 of the last 11 winners were aged between 4-6
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

Surewin Best Bet: Pogo (e/w)
Surewin Danger: Witch Hunter

Beverley Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 - Hilary Needler Trophy Fillies’ Conditions Stakes (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV4

16/18 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
14/18 – Had won over 5f before
13/18 – Had won just once before
13/18 – Irish bred
13/18 – Had raced between 1-2 times before
11/18 – Had raced in the last 2 weeks
10/18 – Won last time out
9/18 – Placed favourites
5/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/18 – Trained by Kevin Ryan (4 in total)
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Raced at York last out
2/18 – Trained by Tim Easterby (5 in total)
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of the last 5)
2/18– Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/18 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope (last 2)
1/18 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 5/1
12 of the last 13 winners drawn 9 or lower
10 or the last 12 winners were foaled in Feb or March
9 of last 14 winners have been drawn in stalls 6-9 (inc)

Surewin Best Bet: Over Spiced
Surewin Danger: Call Me Harswell

2.40 – bet365 Two Year Old Trophy Conditions Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV4

14/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/14 – Feb, March or April bred
14/14 – Drawn in 6 or lower
12/14 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
9/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/14 – Won over 5f before
9/14 – Won at least once before
9/14 – Favourites placed
7/14 – Had raced twice or more
7/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Irish bred
6/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Drawn in stall 1
3/14 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of the last 4)
The last 11 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1

Surewin Best Bet: Moving Fast
Surewin Danger: Regal Gem

3.15 - bet365 Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-95) 7 1/2 f ITV4

One previous runnings
Trainer Mick Appleby won the race in 2023
Trainer Harriet Bethell has a 27% record with her 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael Herrington has a 19% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael and David Easterby has a 18% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ruth Carr is just 1-from-61 with her 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Tina Jackson is just 2-from-31 with her 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Scott Dixon is just 1-from-22 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Ryan Sexton has a 24% strike-rate riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Joanna Mason has a 22% strike-rate riding 4+ year-olds at the track

Surewin Best Bet: Zapphire
Surewin Danger: Golden Sands

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