Sat TV Tips and Stats: 28th June 25

The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse, while the ITV cameras also head to York, to take in three races.

Did you know - 18 of the last 23 Northumberland Plate winners were aged 6 or younger?

Here at SUREWIN we've got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RacingTV)

1:55 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Mile Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1m ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer William Haggas have a 19% SR with their 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer John & Thady Gosden have a 21% SR with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ed Walker has a 19% SR with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Charlie Johnston is just 1-25 (4%) with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 14-309 (5%) with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 3-113 with their 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer David O’Meara is just 1-51 with their 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Ed Walker is just 1-28 with their 3 year-olds at the track

SUREWIN Best Bet: ARCHIVIST
SUREWIN Danger: POINT OF CONTACT

2:25 – Plantation Stud Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

21/23 – Won over 7f before
19/23 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
19/23 – Had at least 1 run already that season
14/23 – Aged 5 or younger
12/23 – Finished unplaced last time out
12/23 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
11/23 – Came from stall 3 or lower
11/23 – Unplaced favourites
8/23 – Winning favourites
5/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/23 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 14 runnings)
Trainer John Gosden has won the race 5 times
11 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
Audience won the race in 2023
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
Jockey James Doyle has won 2 of the last 8 runnings
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
Note: Was run at Newmarket in 2024

SUREWIN Best Bet: LAKE FOREST
SUREWIN Danger: ROOM SERVICE

3:00 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dash Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 14-309 (5%) with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael Appleby is just 1-37 (3%) with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer John & Sean Quinn have a 18% overall SR at the track

SUREWIN Best Bet: AZURE ANGEL
SUREWIN Danger: REGAL ENVOY

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (SkySports Racing/ITV)

1:40 – Jenningsbet 200 Shops Nationwide Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV

Just 8 previous runnings
8/8 - Aged between 3-6 years-old
8/8 - Had won over 6f before
8/8 - Won between 2-5 times
7/8 - Carried 9-2 or more in weight
7/8 - Returned between 15/2 or shorter
6/8 - Drawn in stalls 9 or higher
6/8 - Placed favourites
6/8- Unplaced last time out
5/8 - Rated between 95 and 99 (inc)
5/8 - Had run at the track before
2/8 - Came from stalls10
2/8 - Winning favourites
5 of the last 6 winners came from stalls 9-11
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 15/2

SUREWIN Best Bet: DRAMA
SUREWIN Danger: POCKLINGTON

2:10 – Jenningsbet Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

22/23 – Had won over 6f before
21/23 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
18/23 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
16/23 – Unplaced last time out
15/23 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
15/23 – Yet to win a Group race
15/23 – Placed favourites
14/23 – Had won at least 4 times before
14/23 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/23 – Aged 5 or older
8/23 - Ran at Ascot last time out
8/23 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/23 – Had run at Newcastle before
4/23 – Won last time out
3/23 – Trained by William Haggas (last 3)
2/23 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/23 – Ridden by Tom Marquand (last 2)
14 of the last 22 winners came between stalls 1-5
4 of the last 7 winners came from stall 2
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 21 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

SUREWIN Best Bet: KIND OF BLUE
SUREWIN Danger: ANNAF

2:40 - Jenningsbet Festival Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation race for the Plate) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
9/9 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
9/9 – Ran in the last 2 months
9/9 - Won with between 9-3 and 9-10 in weight
8/9 - Won over at least 1m6f in the past
7/9 – Aged 4 (4) or 6 (3) years-old
6/9 - Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/9 – Winners came from stalls 11-19 (inc)
4/9 - Won over 2m (flat) in the past
4/9 - Winning favourites
4/9 – Won last time out
2/9 – Had run at Newcastle (flat) before
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1

SUREWIN Best Bet: GODSEND
SUREWIN Danger: HUMBLE SPARK

3:15 – Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV

22/23 - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
22/23 – Finished fifth or better last time out
19/23 – Came from stall 14 or lower
19/23 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
18/23 – Aged 6 or younger
17/23 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
13/23 – Carried 8-12 or less
13/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/23 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
8/23 – Won by a National Hunt yard
7/23 – Won their previous race
6/23 – Winning favourites
5/23 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
3/23 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 16 winners)
2/23 – Trained by Donald McCain (2 of the last 15)
2/23 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 6)
2/23 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 10)
1/23 – Won by a previous winner of the race
Note: From 2016 the Northumberland Plate was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle (moved from the turf)
Other Northumberland Plate Facts
Just 1 horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985 (2021, Nicholas T (9))
Six of the last 19 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
6 of the last 10 winners has carried between 9st 1lbs and 9st 9lbs.
11 winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 5 of the last 13
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

SUREWIN Best Bet: PAPPANO
SUREWIN Danger: ONESMOOTHOPERATOR

SUREWIN Best Bet: NATIVE WARRIOR
SUREWIN Danger: RARE CHANGE